Arabian Sea May Spin Off A Low/Depression By June 3, 2017

MAY 25, THURSDAY

Even as the Bay of Bengal prepares to hurl a tropical cyclone MORA at Bangladesh in the next 4-5 days, it is becoming evident that the Arabian Sea too is readying to give birth to a low pressure system/depression in the coming days in early June.

Even as the Bay of Bengal system gathers steam, it will drain off energy from the Arabian Sea. So the Arabian Sea is going to lay low in first gear till May 30. Once the Bay of Bengal storm hits Bangladesh and dissipates, the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon will accelerate.

On May 30-31 the monsoon will hit Kerala. After that it will quickly move into coastal Karnataka. Then on June 3 near the coast of Goa things will happen.

A low pressure area will develop accompanied by heavy rains. Monsoon will move into Goa.

Very heavy rains are expected in Konkan and Goa after the low forms. It will push monsoon into Mumbai.

Whether this fledgling storm system will develop into something bigger is uncertain at this moment. Where it will go is equally unclear presently. 

The GFS model expects the low pressure system to form on June 5. It says it may develop into a possible depression and head towards Balochistan/Oman.

American NMME Model Forecast: Deluge During India Monsoon 2016

JUNE 8, 2016

The latest monsoon forecast for India in 2016 by the American multi model NMME predicts a bumper rainy season for the country. Only some eastern states may face deficient rainfall. Also, contrary to average years, the monsoon will extend till October this year.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

The model says most parts of the country will have above average precipitation. The excess ranging from 5 mm to 100 mm per month from July to October. The lightest green color denotes an excess of 5mm. The darkest green color in the forecast maps below equals 100mm above the average rainfall.

A brief glance at the monthly forecast maps below shows bad news is reserved for Odisha. It will have below average rains in July, August and September. Parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chattisgarh may remain relatively dry in July. The dry areas expand to West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh in August.

The north, west and south of the country will face a deluge from July to October in 2016. The wettest states this monsoon are going to be Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and eastern Rajasthan.

A notable point of the forecast is that it expects rains even in October. Normally monsoon withdraws from most parts of India in September.

Talking of other countries of South Asia, Pakistan will have a good time July through September. The country has been facing poor monsoons since last few years. The NMME has good news for the country. An inch or two more than the normal average rainfall for each of the monsoon months.

Bangladesh will have a drier August and September.

Surprisingly, countries in the Middle East will have above average rainfall July to September. We talk especially of Oman and the UAE. Parts of Oman will receive rains even in October.

Weak Monsoon For Days To Come?

MAY 7, 2016

Monsoon activity is going to be weak on the Arabian Sea side in the near future. The rains will get stuck in Goa and northern Karnataka for another 10 days even though it is expected to rain heavily in these areas in the next few days owing to a cyclonic circulation. So when will it reach Mumbai? Hard to say now but NOAA's model says on June 18.

The model further says it will reach Gujarat around June 21. It expects the monsoon to have spread to eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat by June 22. But one takes that with a pinch of salt as the model has been making wild predictions in the past week.

................

Interesting sidelight: There is a 30-40% possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea till June 15. There is a similar chance in the Bay of Bengal from June 6-10

...............

The silver lining in the gloomy scenario is that the Bay of Bengal stream is going to rejuvenate soon. With the cyclonic circulation over Andhra Pradesh intensifying into a low and hitting Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 11-12 and then drenching the northeastern states of India.

This low pressure area/depression is going to pull in the monsoon into eastern India.

Some forecast models suggest the Arabian Sea stream will snap out of its Rip Van Winkle sleep around June 18 and monsoon will lash Mumbai and Gujarat thereafter.

...............

Good news is that the Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO, enters the Indian Ocean on June 12 and is expected to stay for next few weeks. As a result the monsoon will really intensify. A booster dose, so to speak.

................

Image credit: Rediff

Meanwhile the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology  (IITM), Pune, India,  have given the following rain forecast maps based on multi-model ensemble (MME) till June 25, 2016. The first set shows the expected rainfall in mm/day. The second set shows the forecast anomaly, that is whether below average or above average.

Not a very happy picture. Though rains will spread throughout India (except western Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab) by June 25, they will be meagre except in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Indian west coast and north east states.

The rainfall anomaly forecast map shows below average rains in most of the areas till June 20 (except the ubiquitous north eastern states). Good rains also in coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat from June 11-15 (A low pressure area?). Things get better during June 21-25 period with western Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal showing above average rains. The White color denotes normal average precipitation.

Latest Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast: Good Rains In West, South India, Oman, UAE

JUNE 1, 2016

The June 1, that is the latest monsoon forecast by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's CANSIPS climate model for India, South Asia and Middle East in 2106 is out.

The monthly forecasts for 2016 is given in the maps below. Green color denotes above average rainfall. Orange equals below average. White colour in the map means normal rains. 

It has good news for western and southern India. Rajasthan, Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra are in for bountiful rainfall with average or above average precipitation in June-September. Rains in Karnataka will be good except for a lean patch in June.

The bad news is for central and eastern states of India. Odisha will be worst hit with deficient rains in all the monsoon months. All the eastern states, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh can expect abysmal rains. July and September will be especially poor.

Turning to Pakistan, it will receive very good rains in all the monsoon months.

Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016. 

Bangladesh except for a surfeit in July will have below average rains this year. Myanmar will see very dry July and September.

Forecast for June: Very dry Odisha and Konkan.

July forecast: Handsome rains in Gujarat and four southern states

August forecast: Gujarat and Andhra score high rain scores

September forecast: Very wet Gujarat, Kerala, Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Andhra. Dry Odisha and West Bengal.

European Forecast Model Hints At Heavy Rains In Andhra On June 8

JUNE 1, 2016

While the American GFS predicts heavy rains in Mumbai, Gujarat around June 10, 2016, the European ECMWF model is betting on Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on June 7-8.

It expects a low pressure area to develop on the Andhra coast on June 7, which will bring heavy precipitation to Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal.

Leading forecast models are thus disagreeing where the monsoons will change gears: West coast or east coast of India.

Keep in touch for updates.

XWF Prediction: Bumper Indian Monsoon 2016 Rains Predicts US ClimateForecast Agency

April 19, 2016

South Asia and India are in for record monsoon rains in 2016 if the United States NOAA's ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency) NMME forecast model is to be believed.

Roughly put it predicts rains in excess of 10% above normal. Western India will receive the most rains, though the trend will be seen all over the country, except the states of Odisha and West Bengal.

And surprisingly the deluge is expected to continue till November.

Parts of western India including Gujarat will receive rains about 2-4 inches above normal.

Given below are forecast maps for June-November by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It shows the anomalies , that is excess or deficient rains than the average. The blue denotes an excess of more than 100 mm. The green denotes excess from 1-100 mm. The orange colour denotes deficient rainfall. Darker orange means scantier rains.

According to this forecasts even Pakistan and Oman will get above average precipitation in the coming months.

Another surprise from this prediction is that the usually wet Myanmar (Burma) will receive deficient rains this year.

Canadian Forecast Monsoon 2016

El Niño Waning, Indian Monsoon Will Be Good

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

June 2016: Good rains in the four southern states, Bihar and Saurashtra 

July 2016: Rainfall all over India except Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

August 2016: Very good rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal.

September 2016: Deluge in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and Konkan.

October 2016: Good rains in Odisha, Malabar and coastal Karnataka.

November 2016: Surprisingly rains in November all over India except western Rajasthan and Kutch