JUNE 1, 2016
The June 1, that is the latest monsoon forecast by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's CANSIPS climate model for India, South Asia and Middle East in 2106 is out.
The monthly forecasts for 2016 is given in the maps below. Green color denotes above average rainfall. Orange equals below average. White colour in the map means normal rains.
It has good news for western and southern India. Rajasthan, Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra are in for bountiful rainfall with average or above average precipitation in June-September. Rains in Karnataka will be good except for a lean patch in June.
The bad news is for central and eastern states of India. Odisha will be worst hit with deficient rains in all the monsoon months. All the eastern states, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh can expect abysmal rains. July and September will be especially poor.
Turning to Pakistan, it will receive very good rains in all the monsoon months.
Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016.
Bangladesh except for a surfeit in July will have below average rains this year. Myanmar will see very dry July and September.
Forecast for June: Very dry Odisha and Konkan.
July forecast: Handsome rains in Gujarat and four southern states
August forecast: Gujarat and Andhra score high rain scores
