APRIL 30, 2017
This year the monsoon gods are going to smile broadly at Maharashtra and Telangana if latest data from the CFS (Coupled Forecast System) model is to be believed.
Looking at rainfall anamoly maps for the four monsoon months we see these two states will receive above average precipitation in each of them. 2-4 inches in excess of the monthly average.
The green colour in the maps denotes excess, above average rainfall. The brown color means deficient rainfall.
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In June the Arabian Sea is going to hit the turbo mode, churning out many rain systems. At least one of them is going to hit Oman. Good rains in coastal Pakistan, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh, northern Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala, Bihar and Jharkhand.
In July good rains in coastal Saurashtra, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Telangana, southern Chattisgarh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Odisha and Bengal. The North Eastern states will face a dry spell in July. As will Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalseema.
In August the good times continue in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh. Bengal and Bihar will receive good rains. Below average rains I am afraid in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalseema.
September will see both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal turning active throwing out low pressure systems. As a result we will see good precipitation in almost entire India except for Rajasthan and northern India. Seeing the likelihood of good rains in September we may say the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will nullify any impact of a weak El Niño.
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