Looking at rainfall charts we can say that monsoon is slowly building up in the North Indian Ocean and is preparing to hit India in a fortnight. Though it enters India when it moves over the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal, officially the onset in Kerala is taken as the date of arrival into India.
Seeing the weather conditions we see a heavy buildup of rain clouds to occur in both the Bay of Bengal and southern Arabian Sea in the coming days. We can say an Andaman Nicobar onset will happen anytime after May 20.
For its arrival at Kerala we have to depend on the data by the CFS model. It says this will occur between June 3-June 9. After that the Arabian Sea is going to go into a storm binge hurling out low pressure areas/depression/cyclone possibly drenching Oman, UAE, Balochistan and coastal Sindh.
Monsoon will reach Mumbai between June 9-June 16. Within the next few days it will enters parts of Gujarat and Saurashtra. By June 24 it will have covered entire Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and southeastern Rajasthan.
Please note that the Indian Meteorological Department is the agency which officially declares the onset of monsoon in India. It takes into account a number of factors while doing so. We have given the onset dates based solely on the criterion of rainfall. So our estimate may differ from that of the IMD.
In the forecast maps, green, blue, maroon denotes heavy to very heavy rain. Brown color mean less than average rain.
Monsoon may enter Kerala and parts of Karnataka between June 3-June 9. See the maroon blotch in the Arabian Sea during that period. It means incessant, torrential stormy rainfall.
Around June 10 the rains will be knocking on Mumbai's door. By June 15 it will have covered Andhra, Odisha, southern Chattisgarh, Telangana, most of Maharashtra, Bengal and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand.
Latest figures by the Climate Prediction Center say chances of ENSO neutral will be slightly higher than that of El Niño developing during monsoon period in India.
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