MAY 15, 2017, MONDAY
The heavy cloud buildup in the Bay of Bengal over Andaman Nicobar islands as a result of a cyclonic circulation is pushing monsoon into the islands. The circulation is not expected to intensify much but will move into southern Myanmar bringing heavy rains to the Indian islands and that part of the country in the coming 3-4 days.
Meanwhile different numerical weather forecast models are giving out confusing signals about imminent tropical depression/cyclone both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
The CFS model has already predicted that the Arabian Sea is going to awaken from its slumber after May 20. The action will start from the southwestern part of the sea. Though the CFS expects a tropical cyclone in early June, the Canadian CMC model has been persistently foretelling a tropical storm around May 25. The energetic CMC expects another storm in the Bay of Bengal around the same time!
One should take the CMC predictions with a pinch of salt but the GFS model expects a Bay of Bengal depression hitting Bangladesh by May 31, 2017. The GFS expects a low pressure system to form off Kerala coast on May 28.
So we see a confounding picture.
Nothing can be said with any degree of certainty now as none of the predictions are being corroborated by other forecast models. But one thing is certain, as the monsoon inches closer and the Indian Ocean Dipole starts turning positive, a storm or two in the coming days is very much possible.
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