DECEMBER 10, 2016, SATURDAY UPDATE
Our December 9 forecast regarding the track and intensity remains unchanged. Only Tamil Nadu is unlikely to benefit rain wise from this storm. Southern Andhra, parts of Rayalseema and Karnataka will receive most rainfall on December 12-13.
Nellore, Anantpur, Cuddapah and Chittoor districts in Andhra Pradesh. Chitradurga, Tumkur, Bangalore (N & S) districts in Karnataka.
Latest forecasts by reliable forecast models say that owing to Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone VARDAH, southern parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, northern coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chennai may face flooding rains beginning December 12, 2016.
VARDAH is strengthening and moving away from the Andaman Nicobar islands. It is heading now in a west-north-westerly direction. Going by that one may think central Andhra coast will be the target of this storm. Both the American GFS model and US Navy's JTWC think so too.
But come December 11 and the cyclone will dip southward and make landfall bang on the Andhra-Tamil Nadu border coast on late evening of December 12. Hence the chance of a Chennai deluge. We think the storm will bring more rains to Tamil Nadu than to Rayalseema because of the last moment "dip".
At present it a 986 hPa storm. Sustained winds well over 100 km/h. But it will weaken before landfall.
The districts in Tamil Nadu which may be most affected are Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and Vellore. The Andhra districts of Nellore, Cuddapah and Chittoor will be worst hit.
No comments:
Post a Comment