Monsoon To Enter Kerala By May 30, Mumbai By June 8

MAY 23, 2017, TUESDAY 

Looking at forecast charts by global Numerical Weather Prediction models one can safely say that the southwest monsoon is set to arrive in Kerala by May 30, 2017. Our estimate is it will hit Goa by June 4 and Mumbai by June 7-8.

The monsoon onset we are talking about as decided by parameters set by the indian Meteorological Department. If we were to go by amount of rainfall alone, heavy thunderstorms will start lashing Kerala in the next 3-4 days.

According to accumulated rainfall forecast charts by the European agency, ECMWF, by June 1, parts of Kerala will have received a whopping 334 millimetres of rain. Monsoon is expected to cover coastal Karnataka by June 1 itself.

After the Kerala onset, the rains will clamber up the latitudes quickly and reach Mumbai by June 8. Fortunately for Indian monsoon this year there have been no depressions/tropical cyclones in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal which suck away its energy and throw it in another direction, thus slowing down its progress.

There is little possibility of a storm in the seas except for a Bay of Bengal upper air cyclonic circulation which may intensify to a low pressure area/tropical storm by month end. But even that is expected to move into Bangladesh/Indian northeast, thus it will actually hasten monsoon's entry into eastern India.

According to the ECMWF forecast rains will be knocking on Goa's doorsteps by June 2.

Monsoon arrival means massive changes in upper atmosphere winds, some 12-13 kilometres high in the air. This June 1 forecast map shows the monsoon winds are already blowing over peninsular India. The perennial easterly jet stream has been pushed northwards into Tibet. This occurs every year during monsoon time.

There is sobering news for those expecting a bumper harvest this year. In it's latest forecast the Bureau of Meteorology says the Indian Ocean Dipole may not be so positive in August. In fact the European model predicts a weak IOD this year.

Similarly NASA and the ECMWF says El Niño may rear it's ugly head by August. Only NOAA paints a rosier picture. Be prepared for poor rains in August-September unless of course the picture changes by then.

Indian Monsoon 2017 Forecast: Mixed Signals

MARCH 29, 2017

The bad news for India where the summer monsoon 2017 is concerned is that the hated villain, El Niño, is going to come back by August this year. We all know when El Niño comes visiting the rains dry up considerably.

That is why private weather forecaster Skymet has portended deficient rainfall for India this year. It says 95% of normal ( +\- 5%).

But there is some good news too. The knight  in shining armour, IOD, Indian Ocean Dipole is going to turn positive by August 2017. That means lots and lots of rains in South Asia.

On the whole, we think monsoon 2017 is going to be good for India and South Asia. The CFS (Climate Forecast System) too is pretty bullish, predicting good rains in August-September-October. There is a chance of a storm/ depression in the Bay of Bengal in May and in the Arabian Sea in June going by its predictions.

Good rains are expected on the Indian west coast in June according to ECMWF forecasts.

Most forecasters paint a nightmare scenario for Indian monsoon when El Niño is imminent. They are pessimistic about the Indian Ocean dipole being able to negate it's ill effects. But an article in the journal of American Meteorological Society points out that "it was found that the IOD also acts to weaken the El Niño–induced drought over India".

And the IOD is going to be strongly positive this year, hence we are hopeful of  good rains this year.

THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO IN AUGUST IS ONLY 50%. WE FEEL THE THREAT HAS BEEN OVER-RATED

FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST EL NINO WILL COME BY AUGUST 

IOD, INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE WILL TURN STRONGLY POSITIVE BY AUGUST 

Meanwhile thunderstorm activity has started in Indian North Eastern states early this year. A good sign.  And this will continue right till the arrival of monsoons, especially in the states of Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram.

The NMME (North American Multimodel Ensemble) model expects a depression/cyclone to bring good rains in Gujarat/Sindh in June. This model predicts a dismal rainfall picture for monsoon 2017, but it is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Almost all its forecasts for 2016 went off target.

The CFS model hints at thunderstorm activity starting in Kerala from May 10-15, 2017. Mumbai will receive its first showers by June 8, Saurashtra-Gujarat by June 12.

Monsoons Will Arrive In Mumbai, Gujarat By June 12, 2016

Image credit: Deccan Chronicle 

MAY 30, 2016

The South West Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10, 2016. With a bang. With flooding rains.

Konkan coast, Mumbai city, South Gujarat and Saurashtra will receive very heavy rainfall from June 10 onwards.

This will be possible because of an off shore trough that will form in the Arabian Sea off the western coast of India in the first week of June.

There will be very good precipitation in southeastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh on June 13-14 as the low will move over these regions. It could even reach Delhi by June 14-15, bringing heavy showers in the capital.

Mumbai and Maharashtra along with northern Karnataka will receive good pre-monsoon showers between June 4-6.

Lately there have been apprehensions about monsoon 2016 after the Indian Meteorological Department said that the onset in Kerala could be delayed. The searing heat waves in the country along with drought like conditions has most people yearning for the rain gods.

Most climate forecast models and the IMD have predicted a good monsoon this year.

The present tardiness on the part of monsoons is because of the lingering after effects of the now deceased El Niño. Absence of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole has made things worse.

But as La Niña regenerates by July, the rainfall outlook for India will dramatically improve. Experts are warning of flooding rains in July-October as La Niña goes on the rampage.

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Extreme Weather, Monsoon, Cyclone Possibilities May (20-31) 2016 Updates

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING IN KARNATAKA NOW, 1730 HRS IST

Satellite image reveals very heavy downpour in Karnataka, near Bangalore and Mysore. Also at Tiruppur. Showers also in coastal Andhra.

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING CATS AND DOGS IN ANDHRA NOW

Highlight of today is the localised heavy rainfall in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh since today morning. It has been raining heavily in the area for hours. This is because of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the area. This is going to hover around Telangana, Chattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh bringing localised thunderstorms.

Also the map below the satellite image shows where and how much (inches) will it rain till today, May 28, midnight IST 

MAY 27, 2016

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED IN JUNE

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED 

The IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) suspects that the onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast may not happen even during June 5 to 10 despite some of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle falling into place by then.

It remains to be seen if, as is being forecast by some models, a cyclonic circulation potentially taking shape off the Konkan coast and moving away generally towards Oman could prove the disruptor.

Other likely disruptive features include a cyclone (typhoon) each being forecast to erupt over the West Indian Ocean and the North-West Pacific during this week and the next.

From BUSINESSLINE (http://goo.gl/uBCfUA)

MAY 27, 2016

GLOBAL EFFECTS OF EL NINO, LA NIÑA 

El Niño died this May. It had been strong since two years. And India suffered as a result. It had two consecutive lousy monsoons in 2014, 2015.

The maps show the effects of the two phenomena. Hopefully with La Niña on the ascendancy, India will have a good monsoon in 2016.

MAY 27, 2016

BAD MAN EL NINO IS DEAD. MONSOONS WILL ENVIGORATE IN JULY 

Good riddance to El Niño. Most international climate agencies say it is dead. They also say La Niña, the fairy godmother for a good monsoon is making a comeback.

But the ill effects of ENSO, El Niño Southern Oscillation, will be felt on monsoon rains till June. Rainfall activity will be curbed as a result. We talked of the dismal CFS forecast till June 22 yesterday.

But once La Niña gets going there may be flooding rains from July till October in India, Pakistan and even the Middle East (Oman, UAE) as a monsoon spillover effect. Long live La Niña!

The CPC diagram shows the dead of El Niño and the rise of La Niña.

MAY 26, 2016

CFS HAS WORRYING NEWS ABOUT MONSOON RAINS TILL JUNE 22, 2016

Just a glance at the latest weekly rainfall forecast from May 25 to June 22, 2016 by the CFS model gives us reason to be gloomy. Most of India barring some areas is expected to receive below average rainfall.

Forecasts by western climate forecast agencies and the Indian Met. has led us to expect a bumper monsoon this year. Well, the start at least is going to be inauspicious if one looks at CFS data.

In the forecast maps for next four weeks the green color denotes above average rainfall. The ominous orange color shows below average rains. The white color denotes average precipitation at the place at this time of the year.

Looking at the maps we gather that barring Gujarat, Bihar, Uttarakhand, North Eastern states, some parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh there will be poor rainfall. The rain deficit is particularly high in western and southern India especially Kerala.

What is even gloomier is that both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal show vast stretches of orange. Meaning rainfall activity is poor even in the seas.

Hope we have bumper July rains. Or a drenching depression or two would be welcome (There is a possibility of a depression near the Andhra coast on June 4).

Rains in June are expected to be poor. They are expected to dramatically rise in July-August as the good effects of the unlamented demise of El Niño start kicking in.

MAY 26, 2016

GFS INDICATES TWO STORM POSSIBILITIES AROUND JUNE 10

The first is a depression affecting southern China on the Hong Kong-Hainan coast in the South China Sea. Later GFS data says it's going to be a full blown tropical cyclone (Typhoon NEPARTAK) that may smash through Taiwan on June 10-11, 2016.

The second is a ominous strengthening circulation in the central Arabian Sea at the same time. That is June 10.

Mind you these are just possibilities at present.

MAY 25, 2016

WHY ARE NO CYCLONES FORMING NOW?

We wonder. The time is ripe. Pre- monsoon period. There is an upper air circulation in central Arabian Sea. Why is it not transforming into a tropical cyclone? (Latest GFS data hints at a depression hitting Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7, 2016).

The answer is because of MJO, MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. At the time of ROANU the MJO was passing through eastern Indian Ocean. Presently it is around Indonesia and withering away.

The MJO gives impetus to existing stormy conditions and favours cyclone formation.

MAY 25, 2016

RAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO INDIA 

Not with a bang engined by a tropical depression or cyclone but gradually. Kerala is already experiencing showers. By month end Mumbai and Gujarat will receive light rainfall. Kerala, Karnataka and southern Andhra will be the wettest in the near future.

For Kerala the IMD warns.....

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Heavy rainfall is most likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala from 27th May 2016 till the morning of 29th May 2016.

27th May:  Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.28th May : Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

MAY 24, 2016

RAINS COMING TO INDIAN WEST COAST

The monsoons are slowly building up in the Arabian Sea. There is a lot of instability which will spread in the coming days and bring rains to Kerala. By May 28 rainfall activity will increase in coastal Kerala and Karnataka as the Arabian Sea will push in precipitation.

Analysis of forecast data reveals both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will remain very unstable. This always happens prior to the onset of monsoons. Numerous upper level circulations will develop.

Some models are hinting at cyclone KYANT developing in the Bay of Bengal around June 1. But it is too premature to take it seriously.

Anything is possible in the coming few weeks. We are closely observing and will keep you posted of significant developments.

Below is a map showing total precipitation (in inches) till May 28, 2016. 

MAY 23, 2016

IT ALL STARTS FROM HERE.....

Just look at the latest satellite image of central Arabian Sea below. There is an intense cluster of thunderstorms. An oasis in a rainless sea. This system over the next few days will move east to the Indian coast.

Rains in Kerala will start. Then consolidate. They will then spread to coastal Karnataka. The entire sea will be full of rain systems by end of May.

It is from these expanding area of thunderstorms that the GFS forecast model expects a depression or cyclone will be spawned in early June.

Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

MAY 23, 2016

GFS SHOWS ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ON JUNE 7. 2016

The Global Forecast System in its 1800 UTC yesterday's data is indicating a big cyclone just south of the Gujarat coast on June 7, 2016.

Let us see if this prediction sustains. It expects the storm to start off as a low pressure area on June 4 near Karnataka coast.

Latest GFS data shows only a low pressure area on May 8.

The prediction by the GFS will have to sustain itself if we are to take it with any seriousness. Moreover it should be supported by other models.

The European model hints at a low forming on the Odisha coast on May 29.

Confusing state of affairs.

We shall watch the situation.

MAY 22, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS HEAVY RAINS ON COASTAL MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT BY JUNE 5

Most forecast models are not predicting extreme weather events in the coming few days for South Asia and Middle East. But the CFS has some cheering news. It predicts a heavy rain system bringing precipitation to coasts of western India and Sindh between May 29 and June 6.

It predicts upto 6 inches of rain in some places of Maharashtra and Gujarat. And about an inch or two in Gujarat and coastal Sindh. See the forecast map below.

The CFS forecast is supported by the GFS ensemble forecast. See the map below.

The map has some disappointing news too. If we believe this forecast then the map shows very weak below normal monsoon activity elsewhere. See the rampant orange colour? It means below average rains. The IMD has already warned of delayed onset of monsoon this year.

MAY 22, 2016

MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY BY JUNE 7, 2017

In meteorology one way to know thunderstorm activity is CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher the CAPE, greater the instability in the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is unstable, thunderstorms arise, rain happens.

Given below are CAPE maps of today and June 7, 2016. There is a dramatic increase in CAPE.

One sees great atmosphere instability (CAPE) not only in India, Pakistan but along the Oman coast , Gulf of Oman and Bay of Bengal. Only Indian southern states will have tranquil weather.

One can conclude that a lot is going to happen in the next 15 days.

The maps are based on GFS Ensemble model.

MAY 21, 2016

These clusters of thunderstorms in the Arabian Sea as shown in the latest IR satellite image need to be watched.

In the following days these will slowly move east and bring rains to the Indian west coast.

MAY 21, 2016

GFS SHOWS STORM FORMATION OFF MUMBAI JUNE 6

The latest GFS data shows a depression forming on June 6, 2016, in the Arabian Sea off the Mumbai coast. 15 days is a long long time in weather forecasting.

Let us see if the prediction sticks.

The BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) model predicts a low forming in the Arabian Sea by May end, but we have our doubts about the veracity of this model.

MAY 21, 2016

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY JUNE 4

Though NWP models do not foresee any significant storm developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming days, rainfall activity will increase substantially in the sea.

This will be because of the pre-monsoon activity. Call it whatever you will. The fact is rains are coming on India's west coast.

It will be particularly heavy in coastal Kerala and Karnataka. 30 inches of rain by June 4. The map below shows the total accumulated precipitation till June 4, 2016. The data is from NOAA's GFS forecast model. The yellow colour denotes heaviest rainfall.

The IMD sees a good chance of an Arabian Sea cyclone on May 27, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS RAINS ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY MAY END

One is not very sure of the reliability of this forecast by the Coupled Forecast System. But it foresees a heavy rain system moving north along the coast in the Arabian Sea and bringing rains to (coastal areas of) Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat by May 31, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

The Indian Meteorological Department, IMD, thinks there is 30+% chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming week, especially on May 25, 2016. Off the Gujarat coast.

Latest GFS data indicate a growing clusters of intense thunderstorms in central Arabian Sea by May 25, 2016. But none of the forecast models are hinting at a storm presently.