Lull In Monsoon Between June 4- June 8 Likely

MAY 31, 2017, WEDNESDAY 

After hitting Kerala, Northeastern states and then advancing into coastal Karnataka and Goa by June 3-4, monsoon 2017 will take a break between June 4 to June 8. Rainfall activity will become relatively subdued and advance into more parts of India will stop.

This will be because a major chunk of rain clouds/thunderstorms that will form off the Goa coast will move back into the Arabian Sea from June 3 onwards.

The sluggish monsoon's will rev up again after June 8. The seas off Goa will marshal more thunderstorms. The Bay of Bengal is going to spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra coast on June 8-9.

Together these two occurrences will revive rainfall activity. Monsoon may then move up to Mumbai and Gujarat.  The GFS model expects a low pressure system to form off the Mumbai coast on June 11 but this is more speculation than forecast at this stage.

Meanwhile NOAA's CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has forecast very heavy rains in many parts of India from June 7 onwards.

Good rains are possible in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh from June 4 onwards. Heavy showers in Rajasthan on June 7-9.

Monsoons Will Arrive In Mumbai, Gujarat By June 12, 2016

Image credit: Deccan Chronicle 

MAY 30, 2016

The South West Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10, 2016. With a bang. With flooding rains.

Konkan coast, Mumbai city, South Gujarat and Saurashtra will receive very heavy rainfall from June 10 onwards.

This will be possible because of an off shore trough that will form in the Arabian Sea off the western coast of India in the first week of June.

There will be very good precipitation in southeastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh on June 13-14 as the low will move over these regions. It could even reach Delhi by June 14-15, bringing heavy showers in the capital.

Mumbai and Maharashtra along with northern Karnataka will receive good pre-monsoon showers between June 4-6.

Lately there have been apprehensions about monsoon 2016 after the Indian Meteorological Department said that the onset in Kerala could be delayed. The searing heat waves in the country along with drought like conditions has most people yearning for the rain gods.

Most climate forecast models and the IMD have predicted a good monsoon this year.

The present tardiness on the part of monsoons is because of the lingering after effects of the now deceased El Niño. Absence of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole has made things worse.

But as La Niña regenerates by July, the rainfall outlook for India will dramatically improve. Experts are warning of flooding rains in July-October as La Niña goes on the rampage.

RELATED

• Tropical Storm BONNIE Will Affect South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia Till Friday
• Rainfall Forecast Till May 30, 2016, In South Asia
• Heavy Rains Possible In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016
• Indian Monsoon Rains To Be Subdued Till June 15, 2016