Lull In Monsoon Between June 4- June 8 Likely

MAY 31, 2017, WEDNESDAY 

After hitting Kerala, Northeastern states and then advancing into coastal Karnataka and Goa by June 3-4, monsoon 2017 will take a break between June 4 to June 8. Rainfall activity will become relatively subdued and advance into more parts of India will stop.

This will be because a major chunk of rain clouds/thunderstorms that will form off the Goa coast will move back into the Arabian Sea from June 3 onwards.

The sluggish monsoon's will rev up again after June 8. The seas off Goa will marshal more thunderstorms. The Bay of Bengal is going to spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra coast on June 8-9.

Together these two occurrences will revive rainfall activity. Monsoon may then move up to Mumbai and Gujarat.  The GFS model expects a low pressure system to form off the Mumbai coast on June 11 but this is more speculation than forecast at this stage.

Meanwhile NOAA's CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has forecast very heavy rains in many parts of India from June 7 onwards.

Good rains are possible in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh from June 4 onwards. Heavy showers in Rajasthan on June 7-9.

Arabian Sea Storm May Lead Indian Monsoon Astray

MAY 27, 2017, SATURDAY

There is bad news for those folks in Mumbai, Gujarat and northwest India, who were hoping for early monsoon rains this year. This may not happen. The culprit? The expected Arabian Sea depression that may form off the Goa coast on June 3, 2017.

After Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone cyclone Mora slams into southeast Bangladesh and Indian northeast on May 30 pushing monsoons into the region, the rainy season will start in Kerala on that very day. The monsoon will vigorously push into coastal Karnataka in the next 24 hours after that.

By June 2 it will be nudging Goa.

That is when villain appears. A low pressure system forming on June 3 in the Arabian Sea off the Goa coast. Now this system will intensify into a depression in a day or two (may be even a weak tropical cyclone) feeding on the monsoon's energy. Now instead of hitting Konkan, Mumbai, or Gujarat, it will go off in a northwesterly direction towards Oman.

On June 5 we see the depression merrily passing by the Gujarat/Saurashtra coastline from a distance and heading towards Oman. We do not know for sure presently whether it will reach Oman for sure. It may dissipate mid-sea. It it may curve back and make landfall into Sindh or Kutch region of Gujarat.

The track of this system seems uncertain at present. On June 6 it suddenly changes direction from westerly to southwesterly, avoiding northern Oman. Where will it go? Central Oman? Salalah coast? Dissipate in mid-sea? Or intensify again and come back to India? The suspense remains.

But if it goes on to Oman, there will be heavy rains in northern Oman and possibly UAE around June 8. Mumbai, Gujarat and Indian west coast will be left holding an empty bag. In short monsoon arrival in Mumbai, Gujarat and northwest India will be delayed by one or two weeks.