There is bad news for those folks in Mumbai, Gujarat and northwest India, who were hoping for early monsoon rains this year. This may not happen. The culprit? The expected Arabian Sea depression that may form off the Goa coast on June 3, 2017.
After Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone cyclone Mora slams into southeast Bangladesh and Indian northeast on May 30 pushing monsoons into the region, the rainy season will start in Kerala on that very day. The monsoon will vigorously push into coastal Karnataka in the next 24 hours after that.
By June 2 it will be nudging Goa.
That is when villain appears. A low pressure system forming on June 3 in the Arabian Sea off the Goa coast. Now this system will intensify into a depression in a day or two (may be even a weak tropical cyclone) feeding on the monsoon's energy. Now instead of hitting Konkan, Mumbai, or Gujarat, it will go off in a northwesterly direction towards Oman.
On June 5 we see the depression merrily passing by the Gujarat/Saurashtra coastline from a distance and heading towards Oman. We do not know for sure presently whether it will reach Oman for sure. It may dissipate mid-sea. It it may curve back and make landfall into Sindh or Kutch region of Gujarat.
The track of this system seems uncertain at present. On June 6 it suddenly changes direction from westerly to southwesterly, avoiding northern Oman. Where will it go? Central Oman? Salalah coast? Dissipate in mid-sea? Or intensify again and come back to India? The suspense remains.
But if it goes on to Oman, there will be heavy rains in northern Oman and possibly UAE around June 8. Mumbai, Gujarat and Indian west coast will be left holding an empty bag. In short monsoon arrival in Mumbai, Gujarat and northwest India will be delayed by one or two weeks.
No comments:
Post a Comment