Indian Monsoon 2017 Forecast: Mixed Signals

MARCH 29, 2017

The bad news for India where the summer monsoon 2017 is concerned is that the hated villain, El Niño, is going to come back by August this year. We all know when El Niño comes visiting the rains dry up considerably.

That is why private weather forecaster Skymet has portended deficient rainfall for India this year. It says 95% of normal ( +\- 5%).

But there is some good news too. The knight  in shining armour, IOD, Indian Ocean Dipole is going to turn positive by August 2017. That means lots and lots of rains in South Asia.

On the whole, we think monsoon 2017 is going to be good for India and South Asia. The CFS (Climate Forecast System) too is pretty bullish, predicting good rains in August-September-October. There is a chance of a storm/ depression in the Bay of Bengal in May and in the Arabian Sea in June going by its predictions.

Good rains are expected on the Indian west coast in June according to ECMWF forecasts.

Most forecasters paint a nightmare scenario for Indian monsoon when El Niño is imminent. They are pessimistic about the Indian Ocean dipole being able to negate it's ill effects. But an article in the journal of American Meteorological Society points out that "it was found that the IOD also acts to weaken the El Niño–induced drought over India".

And the IOD is going to be strongly positive this year, hence we are hopeful of  good rains this year.

THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO IN AUGUST IS ONLY 50%. WE FEEL THE THREAT HAS BEEN OVER-RATED

FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST EL NINO WILL COME BY AUGUST 

IOD, INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE WILL TURN STRONGLY POSITIVE BY AUGUST 

Meanwhile thunderstorm activity has started in Indian North Eastern states early this year. A good sign.  And this will continue right till the arrival of monsoons, especially in the states of Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram.

The NMME (North American Multimodel Ensemble) model expects a depression/cyclone to bring good rains in Gujarat/Sindh in June. This model predicts a dismal rainfall picture for monsoon 2017, but it is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Almost all its forecasts for 2016 went off target.

The CFS model hints at thunderstorm activity starting in Kerala from May 10-15, 2017. Mumbai will receive its first showers by June 8, Saurashtra-Gujarat by June 12.