MARCH 31, 2017
Unlike 2016, the south west monsoon will hit Kerala on time if not earlier this year if American climate forecast model, CFS, is to be believed. The rainfall season will start by the end of May in the southern state.
Pre-monsoon showers will start in the state from early May and intensify as the month progresses. There is a strong possibility that monsoon may hit the state a week earlier, around May 24, 2017.
Pre-monsoon rainfall activity will start in Karnataka, Goa, Konkan, Mumbai and Andhra in the first week of June. Even Saurashtra may receive showers in early June.
The CFS model also hints at the possibility of a depression/tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea around June 20.
Rainfall in July this year is expected to be poor despite an early onset of rains. We shall give month wise rainfall predictions at a later date.
The CFS model gives data output on a daily basis, so there is a strong chance of the forecasts changing to certain degree. We shall keep you updated on any dramatic changes in predictions.
The CFS models predicts a depression/tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea in June 2017
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