ARABIAN SEA STORM UPDATE: MONDAY, JUNE 9, 2014, 1100 AM GMT
The GFS forecast: The tropical storm thundering along on Wednesday, June 11, 2014
That is the story of the present Arabian Sea low pressure area.
On one side the GFS forecast says the low pressure area will develop in a tropical cyclone which on Wednesday will have howling winds of 100 Kph. The storm will then weaken and touch Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014. Weakened but even then it will pack a punch with strong winds and lots of rains.
On the other side is the venerable ECMWF forecast. Both the BBC and IMD follow its forecasts. The ECMWF forecast model says a deep depression will emerge from the present low pressure area and move north. But a few hundred kms from the Gujarat coast it will disintegrate. There will be no impact on Oman.
Hence the confusion. Who will be proved right? The GFS? Or BBC/IMD brigade with their ECMWF basis?
The coming days will tell.
What do we believe? We tend to be partial to the GFS model.
XWF-GFS rain prediction map: Accumulated Rainfall recorded from now till June 16, 2014 owing to Nanauk. The figures are in inches
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The Met Office Arabian Sea Storm Track/Path
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The Met Office Arabian Sea Storm Track/Path
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.06.2014
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.7N 66.8E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
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00UTC 09.06.2014 12.7N 66.8E WEAK
12UTC 09.06.2014 14.1N 69.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.06.2014 15.2N 68.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.06.2014 16.4N 68.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.06.2014 17.3N 67.7E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.06.2014 18.4N 67.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.06.2014 19.4N 66.9E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.06.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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