Two Models Say: The Indian Ocean May Well Throw Up A Tropical Storm In First Week Of June

As we said earlier the southern Arabian Sea is in ferment. Two forecast models say the mass of clouds will throw up a tropical storm.

The CMC model says that a low pressure area will form in the southern Arabian Sea between the Horn Of Africa and Sri Lanka on June 1, 2014. This will then over the next few days intensify into a massive cyclone. It is expected to move in a WNW direction. It is the direction of northern Yemen-Southern Oman border. We have talked about the CMC forecast earlier.

The NAVGEM model says a low pressure area will form in the same area (8 Degrees North, 65 Degrees East) On June 2, 2014. What happens next? Latest (May 29, 2014, 1500 Hrs.) forecast from NAVGEM says it is going to be a full blown cyclone which may go anywhere. But it is generally agreed that the model is about 40% accurate. We will keep a close watch and keep you updated.

The god of all forecast models, the GFS, does not support these predictions. For now. Our hunch is the storm, weak or strong, will head towards the Gulf of Aden. Let us wait for further developments.

The big storm as predicted by the CMC Model on June 3, 2014. Seems to be a big storm.

The NAVGEM Model says it is going to be a full-blooded cyclone. Latest forecast map (May 29, 2014,  1500 Hrs.) shows the predicted position on June 5, 2014.

Satellite image of the Arabian Sea taken at 00.00 Hrs. GMT, May 30, 2014