Latest satellite image of the Northern Indian Ocean (May 31, 2014, 1200 Hrs GMT)
After studying all the forecast models, one can say safely that there is little chance of a significant tropical storm developing in the Arabian Sea (Or Bay of Bengal for that matter) in the next few days.
We will keep a close watch on the seas and keep you updated. If any reliable forecast model indicates a coming storm we will let you know immediately. Early June is that time of the year (And September-November) when the Northern Indian Ocean comes up with some nasty storms.
The time period till June 20 is important as the seas are most trigger-happy. We will keep you posted.
The CPC (Climates Prediction Center) says "The expected evolution of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation- technical stuff which we do need not bother about)) into early June tends to favor tropical cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea; however there is no model support for a TC and confidence is too low to be highlighted on the map" Simply put, it means there is a good chance of a tropical storm developing in the Arabian Sea in the first week of June, but no forecast model says so openly as the possibility percentage is low. But thing may change quickly.
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