MAY 28, 2017, SUNDAY
The monsoon just entered southern Sri Lanka. But the intensity of rainfall has left 30 dead and the authorities astonished. This was just a curtain-raiser to what is going to happen when rains hit the southern Indian states in the coming 4-5 days.
The Arabian Sea branch of monsoon has been unusually quiet as it watches the Bay of Bengal churn out tropical cyclone Mora. Come May 30 and all will change.
The monsoon is set to hit Kerala and coastal Karnataka with a vengeance. The incessant wave after wave assault will continue till June 2-3. Our estimate is some parts of these states may receive 10-12 inches in 4-5 days.
Then the focus will shift to the coast off Goa on June 3. That is when the low pressure area is set to form. We have talked at length about this expected system in an earlier post. Recent forecasts say the low is going to be weak and will dissipate mid sea before reaching Oman by June 6-7.
So what is going to happen to all those rain clouds, moisture and energy the system will be carrying with it? Our guess is after the 'low' dissipates the rain clouds will slowly drift back with the monsoon winds to the Indian mainland.
The best thing that could happen for Mumbai monsoon is the Arabian Sea low pressure area does not take birth at all. In that case, monsoon's will reach the megapolis, Gujarat and Rajasthan by June 8-10.
If the system is spawned there will be a delay in onset as the 'low' will take bulk of monsoon clouds for a pointless ride to central Arabian Sea and then abandoning it.
Another possibility is the system will not form at all. Then there will be little hurdle in the march of rains up the Indian west coast.
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