Cyclone Joalane To Pass 250 Kilometers East of Rodrigues Thursday Night

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0000 HRS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE JOALANE IN SW INDIAN OCEAN

The latest track forecast for the powerful tropical cyclone Joalane in the South West Indian Ocean shows it swinging further east of Rodrigues Island of Mauritius.

The eye of the storm will pass the closest to Rodrigues Island Thursday night (April 9, 2015) about 250 kilometers east of the island. Under the influence Rodrigues Island will face winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph. And this is a very conservative estimate.

The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow evening Joalane will have sustained wind speeds of 120 knots (223 kph), gusts up to 145 knots (270 kph). Perhaps a Category 4 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Since the cyclone will pass about 800 kilometers from Mauritius there will no substantial influence on the island. But Rodrigues being nearer will face 75+ kph winds and heavy rainfall on Thursday.

The JTWC says other forecast models agree on the track forecast for cyclone Joalane. There is however some disagreement on the intensity of the storm. It is certain that Joalane is a powerful cyclone that is going to further intensify in the coming 30 hours.

Even now the sustained wind speeds in the storm are 130 kph. Presently it lies about 825 kilometers north-east of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST (JTWC) FOR CYCLONE JOALANE ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY

MASCAREIGNES CYCLONE TO BE NAMED "JOALANE"

UPDATE: APRIL 7, 2015

 Cyclone Joalane is going to continuously intensify and turn into a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. Presently according to conservative estimates it is throwing out winds of 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It lies about 825 kms north-east of Mauritius. Even at this distance, 30 kph winds are lashing Mauritius now. It will pass closest to Mauritius on April 10 (Friday) night (Local Time). The eye of the cyclone will be about 750 kms east of the island then.

 Cyclone 21S in the southern Indian Ocean has been named cyclone Ikola. So the expected cyclone in the Mascareignes will be named cyclone JOALANE.

Ikola will have no impact on Mascareignes whatsoever as we have mentioned earlier. Ikola has intensified earlier so it looks bigger. But make no mistake Joalane is the storm to watch out for. Ikola will peter out in 48 hours. Joalane is expected to turn into something nasty.

 JTWC PREDICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WILL HIT RODRIGUES WITH 180 KPH WINDS The JTWC has declared that Storm 91S is now tropical cyclone 22S. It for s intensifying all the time. Present sustained winds are 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph.

 The cyclone is not likely to hit Mauritius directly but Rodrigues is in for it on April 11, 2015. 22S being a slow moving storm, the rough weather in the Mascareignes will continue for a week. Though Mauritius will not be directly hit such a large storm even 500 kms away will stir up things. The JTWC predicts 22S will peak on April 10 with sustained winds of 180 kph, gusts up to 230 kph. A big storm.

Future cyclone Joalane is intensifying. It will intensify continuously for the next 72 hours into a Cat 3 hurricane. The GFS expects Joalane to stay about 500 kms away from Mauritius at all times. It predicts a direct hit on Rodrigues on April 9-10. The European model predicts a path closer to Mauritius but one expects it will agree with the GFS forecast eventually. We will bring the latest updates.

ECMWF DIFFERS ON CYCLONE JOALANE TRACK WITH GFS There is some confusion as to the exact track of cyclone Joalane. The two major forecast models are saying slightly different things. The GFS as we mentioned earlier says the cyclone will keep its distance from Mauritius at all times. 500 kms at least. In contrast the latest forecast issued by the ECMWF at 0000 hours GMT today predicts the periphery of cyclone Joalane will pass through Mauritius on April 11-13, 2015. We have found that generally the GFS predictions prevail. Anyway we will keep you informed. The storm lies about 780 kms north-east of Mauritius now. It will not move eastwards anymore, but stay nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. After which it will intensify into a powerful cyclone and move south.

SEE CYCLONE JOALANE LIVE

TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR CYCLONE JOALANE

Latest satellite image of SW Indian Ocean taken at 0530 hours GMT today. 

South West Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone JOALANE To Form April 8, 2015

A very powerful tropical cyclone is likely to form north of Mauritius on April 8, 2015. It is presently a low pressure area 91S.

91S presently lies about 980 kilometers north east of Mauritius. Sustained winds are already 60 kph. We can say 91S is already a depression, just a step short of a cyclone.

In the next two days it will move west in the South Western Indian Ocean. By April 7, 2015, it will be about 630 kms NNE of Mauritius. After which it will intensify into a tropical cyclone by next day, Wednesday. The storm will then start moving south.

By April 9, 2015, Thursday, it will have turned into a powerful cyclone with sustained winds of 140 kph. It will be just 400 kms NNE of Mauritius on Thursday.

There is a chance that the cyclone (Ikola?) may intensify even more. We are looking at the possibility of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Present forecast say the cyclone will move between Rodrigues island and Mauritius. But even then Mauritius will face very bad weather. The situation will be made worse by the fact that cyclone Ikola will be a slow moving cyclone.

SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE

WEATHER FORECAST MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONE IKOLA (?) MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON APRIL 12, 2015

FORECAST MAP ON APRIL 9, 2015

POWERFUL CYCLONE TO FORM NORTH OF MAURITIUS APRIL 7

There is every likelihood of a powerful cyclone forming 500 kms NNE of Mauritius on April 7, 2015. The storm will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues and head south. Though a direct hit is unlikey on Mauritius, conditions will be rough on April 7-9. Keep in touch for further updates.

 In the latest satellite image below is seen another cyclone 93S forming in the SE Indian Ocean. A weak storm, it will dissipate soon. The bigger storm will form north of Mauritius on April 7th.

TWO CYCLONES TO FORM IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IN THE COMING WEEK Two tropical cyclones are going to form in the S Indian Ocean in the coming days. Storm 93S will intensify soon into a cyclone and move south-east towards the south-western coastal waters of Australia. A weak storm it will form and weaken in a couple of days. 91S will be the bigger storm. It is presently a low pressure area in the ocean. By April 7 it will drift towards Mascareignes and intensify into a tropical cyclone north-east of Mauritius.

There is some confusion as to who will name Storm 93S. The Australians or the folks at Reunion? If 93S is named by the Australian Met then 91S will become Cyclone Ikola. Otherwise it will be named Joalane.

Track Forecast of Storm 91S (Future IKOLA?) in the SW Indian Ocean The Red Line is GFS Forecast Track Yellow Line is Canadian Model GEM. Blue Line is US Navy's NAVGEM Model Forecast.

Typhoon MAYSAK A Super Typhoon Now, But Will Weaken By Phllippines Landfall

TYPHOON MAYSAK AT 0630 HRS GMT, MARCH 31, 2015

Typhoon Maysak is turning into a super typhoon. The JTWC estimates that by the time it passes by Yap Island in the next 24 hours it will have metamorphosed into a howling entity with winds of 260+ kph. Gusts of an awesome 300 kph.

But though looking at a satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean one fears the most for Philippines, as the storm is moving west, most forecast models say Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it reaches northern Philippines in Bikol-Calabarzon-Luzon areas on April 4-5, 2015.

By April 2nd it will have started weakening.  By 3rd April the wind speeds will have dropped to 120 kph. By April 4 it will be a 100 kph storm. By Saturday, April 5 when Maysak makes landfall into Bikol and North Visayas it will be a mere deep depression.

It is expected to pass through central Philippines. Through the Visayas and bring torrential rainfall in the region. But there is little chance of strong winds the area. Deep depressions have maximum winds of 50-65 kph.

So in conclusion, we can say Philippines can rest easy. We shall continuously monitor the situation and give you latest significant updates.

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Will Typhoon MAYSAK Hit Philippines?

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Typhoon Maysak has intensified over the last 24 hours. Presently it is leaving the Micronesian Islands of Pananu and Chuuk and moving west in the Pacific Ocean. Present sustained winds are 100 kph, gusts up to 140 kph.

After 48 hours it is going to smash into Yak Island with super typhoon winds (If JTWC predictions are to be believed) of 220 kph.

What after that. The JTWC is non-committal. Its forecast goes only until 3rd of April, 2015. At that stage Maysak wll be a few hundred kilometers away from Philippines coast.

We have rely on the mainstream forecast models to know beyond that. Let us examine what each of the global models say as to the track and intensity of typhoon Maysak. Please note that we only consider the GFS and the ECMWF models as reliable. Nevertheless we have considered all the models in our analysis.

GFS - Maysak will intensify in the coming days into a formidable storm. But by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines (Luzon) it will have weakened into a mere deep depression on April 5, 2015.

ECMWF - The European Model agrees with the GFS Model. Maysak will weaken before making landfall into Philippines.

Canadian Model - Typhoon Maysak will be a powerful cyclone when it hits northern Luzon on April 4, 2015.

Navgem - A mid-sized typhoon Maysak will hit northern Luzon on April 5, 2015.

JMA - Maysak will be a mere depression when it enters Luzon on April 4, 2015.

In conclusion we may say that though typhoon Maysak may well strengthen into a powerful storm in the next few days, by the time it makes landfall into Philippines, it will have weakened considerably. May be a deep depression which will bring heavy rains to Luzon on April 4-5, 2015.

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Typhoon MAYSAK TO HIT NORTHERN PHILIPPINES APRIL 5, 2015

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The storm brewing in the West Pacific has intensified into a tropical Storm MAYSAK. There is bad news in store for Philippines. Maysak will intensify into a powerful typhoon in a few days and is expected to hit northern Philippines on April 5, 2015. Though the storm will weaken from its peak strength of 115 knots (220 kph) when it makes landfall into Philippines.

Tropical Storm Maysak is going to intensify rapidly in the coming days. The US Navy's JTWC predicts it will turn into a powerful 115 knots monster by April 1, 2015.

At 0300 hours GMT, March 28, 2015 the storm lay at 7.6 degrees North, 154.9 degrees East.

In the coming days the typhoon is going hit directly two islands. Chuuk Islands today itself and Yap Island on March 31, 2015. Yap is going to be hit badly as Maysak will have strengthen by then and 185 kph winds will lash the island.

As for Philippines, the storm being a slow moving storm will reach it on April 5, 2015. The areas where the storm will make landfall are Bikol, Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

The European forecast model says Maysak will hit the country a day earlier, on April 4, 2015. It predicts a hit on Luzon. This model foersees a stronger  storm than the GFS Model.

Philippines is going to face typhoon Maysak on April 4-5, 2015.

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TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL INTENSIFY INTO A TYPHOON AND IMPACT PHILIPPINES ON APRIL 4-5, 2015

PHILIPPINES FACES MASSIVE STORM on April 5, 20

Trouble is brewing in the western Pacific. A massive typhoon is being spawned. It is just a depression now but the JTWC warns the system will turn into a typhoon blowing winds of 200 kmph in few days.

And it is going to hit Philippines on April 5, 2015.

Keep in touch for latest updates.

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