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| SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0000 HRS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE JOALANE IN SW INDIAN OCEAN |
The eye of the storm will pass the closest to Rodrigues Island Thursday night (April 9, 2015) about 250 kilometers east of the island. Under the influence Rodrigues Island will face winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph. And this is a very conservative estimate.
The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow evening Joalane will have sustained wind speeds of 120 knots (223 kph), gusts up to 145 knots (270 kph). Perhaps a Category 4 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Since the cyclone will pass about 800 kilometers from Mauritius there will no substantial influence on the island. But Rodrigues being nearer will face 75+ kph winds and heavy rainfall on Thursday.
The JTWC says other forecast models agree on the track forecast for cyclone Joalane. There is however some disagreement on the intensity of the storm. It is certain that Joalane is a powerful cyclone that is going to further intensify in the coming 30 hours.
Even now the sustained wind speeds in the storm are 130 kph. Presently it lies about 825 kilometers north-east of Mauritius.
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| TRACK FORECAST (JTWC) FOR CYCLONE JOALANE ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY |
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