Cyclone Joalane is going to continuously intensify and turn into a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. Presently according to conservative estimates it is throwing out winds of 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It lies about 825 kms north-east of Mauritius. Even at this distance, 30 kph winds are lashing Mauritius now. It will pass closest to Mauritius on April 10 (Friday) night (Local Time). The eye of the cyclone will be about 750 kms east of the island then.
Cyclone 21S in the southern Indian Ocean has been named cyclone Ikola. So the expected cyclone in the Mascareignes will be named cyclone JOALANE.
Ikola will have no impact on Mascareignes whatsoever as we have mentioned earlier. Ikola has intensified earlier so it looks bigger. But make no mistake Joalane is the storm to watch out for. Ikola will peter out in 48 hours. Joalane is expected to turn into something nasty.
JTWC PREDICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WILL HIT RODRIGUES WITH 180 KPH WINDS The JTWC has declared that Storm 91S is now tropical cyclone 22S. It for s intensifying all the time. Present sustained winds are 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph.
The cyclone is not likely to hit Mauritius directly but Rodrigues is in for it on April 11, 2015. 22S being a slow moving storm, the rough weather in the Mascareignes will continue for a week. Though Mauritius will not be directly hit such a large storm even 500 kms away will stir up things. The JTWC predicts 22S will peak on April 10 with sustained winds of 180 kph, gusts up to 230 kph. A big storm.
Future cyclone Joalane is intensifying. It will intensify continuously for the next 72 hours into a Cat 3 hurricane. The GFS expects Joalane to stay about 500 kms away from Mauritius at all times. It predicts a direct hit on Rodrigues on April 9-10. The European model predicts a path closer to Mauritius but one expects it will agree with the GFS forecast eventually. We will bring the latest updates.
ECMWF DIFFERS ON CYCLONE JOALANE TRACK WITH GFS There is some confusion as to the exact track of cyclone Joalane. The two major forecast models are saying slightly different things. The GFS as we mentioned earlier says the cyclone will keep its distance from Mauritius at all times. 500 kms at least. In contrast the latest forecast issued by the ECMWF at 0000 hours GMT today predicts the periphery of cyclone Joalane will pass through Mauritius on April 11-13, 2015. We have found that generally the GFS predictions prevail. Anyway we will keep you informed. The storm lies about 780 kms north-east of Mauritius now. It will not move eastwards anymore, but stay nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. After which it will intensify into a powerful cyclone and move south.
SEE CYCLONE JOALANE LIVE
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| TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR CYCLONE JOALANE |
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| Latest satellite image of SW Indian Ocean taken at 0530 hours GMT today. |
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