Typhoon Maysak To Enter North Philippines In Few Hours

Maysak may not be a super typhoon now but it is still packing winds of 70 kph, gusts up to 110 kph as it prepares to enter northern Philippines at Luzon Province.

It will make landfall into Cagayan, between Casiguran and Baler. The most affected will be central Luzon. The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will happen there. The storm will pass through the country in 24 hours.

Expect the strongest winds on the eastern coast of Luzon.

By the morning of Monday it will be all over.

See Typhoon MAYSAK live at http://tropicalcyclonelive.blogspot.in/2015/03/see-typhoon-maysak-live-april-2015.html

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TYPHOON MAYSAK ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHERN PHILIPPINES

UPDATE: APRIL 5, 2015

The storm has entered Luzon. Within the next 12 hours it will move into the South China Sea. It is a mere depression now. But the island can expect heavy rainfall in the next 12 hours.

THE STORM WILL MOVE PAST LUZON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS JUST A DEPRESSION NOW.

A Greatly Weakened Typhoon Maysak Will Hit Northern Philippines April 5 Morning

Typhoon Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it makes landfall into Northern Philippines at Luzon and Cagayan on the morning of April 5, 2015.

After wreaking havoc on Yap Islands super typhoon Maysak is moving towards northern Philippines. Currently it lies about 1700 kilometers from the coast of eastern Luzon. 

It is already a super typhoon. In the coming hours it will intensify even more. It will be at its strongest at midnight tonight. The JTWC predicts it will then have sustained winds of 280 kph with gusts up to an astounding 330 kph.

But within 24 hours it will start weakening as it continues moving Philippines. Our estimate is that by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines on the morning of April 5, 2015 (Local Time) it will be just  whipping up winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph.

The coast of eastern Luzon can expect winds of about 60-80 kph on April 5. Accompanied, of course, by heavy rains. Mercifully Maysak will weaken a lot by that time. The imagination boggles when one images Maysak hitting Philippines with its present strength. Another Haiyan.

UPDATE: APRIL 2, 2015

There is no doubt that typhoon Maysak is already weakening as it moves towards northern Philippines. Though still a powerful storm now, it is weakening by the hour. It is expected to make landfall into Luzon on Saturday late night, April 4, 2015. At that time it will be little more than a weak tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 60-70 kph. Or less

So there is little peril for Philippines. Though the heavy rains may cause problems.

THE WEATHER FORECAST MAP SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE MAYSAK ENTERING LUZON ON LATE NIGHT SATURDAY, APRIL 4, 2015.

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LATEST TRACK FORECAST AND WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK BY JTWC

Typhoon MAYSAK A Super Typhoon Now, But Will Weaken By Phllippines Landfall

TYPHOON MAYSAK AT 0630 HRS GMT, MARCH 31, 2015

Typhoon Maysak is turning into a super typhoon. The JTWC estimates that by the time it passes by Yap Island in the next 24 hours it will have metamorphosed into a howling entity with winds of 260+ kph. Gusts of an awesome 300 kph.

But though looking at a satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean one fears the most for Philippines, as the storm is moving west, most forecast models say Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it reaches northern Philippines in Bikol-Calabarzon-Luzon areas on April 4-5, 2015.

By April 2nd it will have started weakening.  By 3rd April the wind speeds will have dropped to 120 kph. By April 4 it will be a 100 kph storm. By Saturday, April 5 when Maysak makes landfall into Bikol and North Visayas it will be a mere deep depression.

It is expected to pass through central Philippines. Through the Visayas and bring torrential rainfall in the region. But there is little chance of strong winds the area. Deep depressions have maximum winds of 50-65 kph.

So in conclusion, we can say Philippines can rest easy. We shall continuously monitor the situation and give you latest significant updates.

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Will Typhoon MAYSAK Hit Philippines?

See Typhoon MAYSAK LIVE

Typhoon Maysak has intensified over the last 24 hours. Presently it is leaving the Micronesian Islands of Pananu and Chuuk and moving west in the Pacific Ocean. Present sustained winds are 100 kph, gusts up to 140 kph.

After 48 hours it is going to smash into Yak Island with super typhoon winds (If JTWC predictions are to be believed) of 220 kph.

What after that. The JTWC is non-committal. Its forecast goes only until 3rd of April, 2015. At that stage Maysak wll be a few hundred kilometers away from Philippines coast.

We have rely on the mainstream forecast models to know beyond that. Let us examine what each of the global models say as to the track and intensity of typhoon Maysak. Please note that we only consider the GFS and the ECMWF models as reliable. Nevertheless we have considered all the models in our analysis.

GFS - Maysak will intensify in the coming days into a formidable storm. But by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines (Luzon) it will have weakened into a mere deep depression on April 5, 2015.

ECMWF - The European Model agrees with the GFS Model. Maysak will weaken before making landfall into Philippines.

Canadian Model - Typhoon Maysak will be a powerful cyclone when it hits northern Luzon on April 4, 2015.

Navgem - A mid-sized typhoon Maysak will hit northern Luzon on April 5, 2015.

JMA - Maysak will be a mere depression when it enters Luzon on April 4, 2015.

In conclusion we may say that though typhoon Maysak may well strengthen into a powerful storm in the next few days, by the time it makes landfall into Philippines, it will have weakened considerably. May be a deep depression which will bring heavy rains to Luzon on April 4-5, 2015.

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Typhoon MAYSAK TO HIT NORTHERN PHILIPPINES APRIL 5, 2015

See Typhoon MAYSAK LIVE

The storm brewing in the West Pacific has intensified into a tropical Storm MAYSAK. There is bad news in store for Philippines. Maysak will intensify into a powerful typhoon in a few days and is expected to hit northern Philippines on April 5, 2015. Though the storm will weaken from its peak strength of 115 knots (220 kph) when it makes landfall into Philippines.

Tropical Storm Maysak is going to intensify rapidly in the coming days. The US Navy's JTWC predicts it will turn into a powerful 115 knots monster by April 1, 2015.

At 0300 hours GMT, March 28, 2015 the storm lay at 7.6 degrees North, 154.9 degrees East.

In the coming days the typhoon is going hit directly two islands. Chuuk Islands today itself and Yap Island on March 31, 2015. Yap is going to be hit badly as Maysak will have strengthen by then and 185 kph winds will lash the island.

As for Philippines, the storm being a slow moving storm will reach it on April 5, 2015. The areas where the storm will make landfall are Bikol, Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

The European forecast model says Maysak will hit the country a day earlier, on April 4, 2015. It predicts a hit on Luzon. This model foersees a stronger  storm than the GFS Model.

Philippines is going to face typhoon Maysak on April 4-5, 2015.

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TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL INTENSIFY INTO A TYPHOON AND IMPACT PHILIPPINES ON APRIL 4-5, 2015