Typhoon Maysak has intensified over the last 24 hours. Presently it is leaving the Micronesian Islands of Pananu and Chuuk and moving west in the Pacific Ocean. Present sustained winds are 100 kph, gusts up to 140 kph.
After 48 hours it is going to smash into Yak Island with super typhoon winds (If JTWC predictions are to be believed) of 220 kph.
What after that. The JTWC is non-committal. Its forecast goes only until 3rd of April, 2015. At that stage Maysak wll be a few hundred kilometers away from Philippines coast.
We have rely on the mainstream forecast models to know beyond that. Let us examine what each of the global models say as to the track and intensity of typhoon Maysak. Please note that we only consider the GFS and the ECMWF models as reliable. Nevertheless we have considered all the models in our analysis.
GFS - Maysak will intensify in the coming days into a formidable storm. But by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines (Luzon) it will have weakened into a mere deep depression on April 5, 2015.
ECMWF - The European Model agrees with the GFS Model. Maysak will weaken before making landfall into Philippines.
Canadian Model - Typhoon Maysak will be a powerful cyclone when it hits northern Luzon on April 4, 2015.
Navgem - A mid-sized typhoon Maysak will hit northern Luzon on April 5, 2015.
JMA - Maysak will be a mere depression when it enters Luzon on April 4, 2015.
In conclusion we may say that though typhoon Maysak may well strengthen into a powerful storm in the next few days, by the time it makes landfall into Philippines, it will have weakened considerably. May be a deep depression which will bring heavy rains to Luzon on April 4-5, 2015.
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