APRIL 22, 2017, SATURDAY
There is good news for India this year. The European forecast model ECMWF has predicted that the patron saint of South Asian monsoon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is going to start turning positive from June 2017. And it is going to become even more stronger by September. We all know that a positive IOD means good monsoon rains in India, especially the Arabian Sea wing of the monsoon.
What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? This is a coupled phenomenon where the eastern and western parts of the Indian Ocean get alternately hotter or colder than the other part. When the western part gets warmer than the eastern part, it is called positive IOD. The coast near Africa Somalia gets warmer, throws out more thunderstorms and rain clouds into the Arabian Sea ultimately.
The Arabian Sea was impotent in 2016 because it was a negative or neutral IOD year. That is why there were no tropical cyclones in the sea last year. The Arabian Sea wing of the monsoon in 2016 was almost non-existent.
Not this year.
This year as IOD turns positive by June 2017, the Arabian Sea is going to turn into a vigorous stud, hurling thunderstorms, depressions, cyclones and what not.
The CFS model has confirmed that the sea is going to turn over-active in June. Watch out , Gujarat, Sindh, Oman. The Arabian Sea is going to marry IOD in June and going bear many storms.
Lastly we have to mention that there is going to be a worm in the monsoon 2017 soup. El Niño is going to turn positive by August. The fate of the monsoon this year will be decided by the tug-of-war between IOD and El Niño. Who will win? If IOD wins, we will have a good monsoon. If El Niño wins we will have a poor August-September monsoon.
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