The latest (1500 hrs UTC October 26, 2014) JTWC prediction
Cyclone Nilofar is coming. Right now it is disorganized and hovering in the Arabian Sea east of Aden.
In the next few days it will strengthen and move towards Oman.
But it will just skim the Omani coast and abruptly change direction and hit the Pakistan coast at Karachi on Friday evening.
Nilofar about to make landfall at Sind. October 31,2014. Early morning
The mercy is that when cyclone Nilofar changes direction on October 29, it will weaken slightly. But even then it will hammer Karachi with 100+ Kph winds.
Very heavy rainfall is expected in Sind in October end.
The GFS forecast says the tropical cyclone will hit Karachi. The JTWC differs slightly. It says the target will be the Gujarat coast at Kutch.
We tend to go with the GFS forecast.
Karachi, watch out. Nilofar is not going to be soft, gentle and feminine.
Satellite image of Nilofar taken today (Sunday)
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