Overactive Monsoon To Flood Uttar Pradesh Till July 10

JULY 1, 2017, SATURDAY 

After Gujarat it is the turn of central and parts of northern India to receive rains in the coming 10 days. To be precise, parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Particularly Uttar Pradesh.

And the main engine responsible for that will be the low pressure area that originated over Gujarat and is now preparing to move into Rajasthan after flooding parts of Gujarat. Before departing, this system is going to bring heavy rains to some parts of northern Gujarat as a parting gift.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN SOME PARTS OF EAST RAJASTHAN IN NEXT 48 HOURS, THAT IS TILL MONDAY (JULY 3) NOON. AREAS- UDAIPUR, BHILWARA, KOTA.

Now this system is going to travel a long way in the coming days. Eastern Rajasthan, then northern and central Madhya Pradesh, then onto Uttar Pradesh, Bihar. It is going to soak up all the moisture that the Bay of Bengal stream of monsoon has already pushed into eastern and central India. That is the reason it is going to be so durable and long lasting.

This low is going to hover over Uttar Pradesh for days together after July 5 and may possibly bring floods in many parts of the state. It is also going to push monsoons to Delhi in the next 3-4 days.

GUJARAT TO SPAWN A DEPRESSION NOW?

This is what the GFS forecast model is predicting. That by July 12 a cyclonic circulation over central Gujarat will intensify into a low first, then into a massive depression. This big rain maker may move through northern Gujarat and then through Rajasthan bringing phenomenal amounts of precipitation to the state in mid July.

For that we wait, watch and keep a lookout for confirmation.

Oman, UAE Not Dry This July-October Says US NMME Model

JUNE 8, 2016

The Middle East countries, especially Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and parts of Saudi Arabia will not remain their usual rainless in the coming months in 2016. This is what the American climate forecast model the NMME predicts in its latest forecast issued today for July to October.

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The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

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These countries receive hardly any rains from June to November. The average is a few millimetres in these months. But it is perhaps going to be different this year if the forecast by NMME is to be believed. It predicts an excess of 10-30mm of rainfall in each of the months. Please see the monthly forecast maps below. The figures are millimetres (mm).

For a country practically dry during this time of the year, an inch or two is substantial. Perhaps it will be an overflow from the bumper monsoon expected in India and South Asia this year.

Only October will see a dry period except for parts of Oman. Saudi Arabia will see spells of rainfall from July to September. Especially southern parts of the arid country.

A week earlier the Canadian CANSIPS model forecast had predicted a similar wet scenario for the region. We had said in the article......"Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016."

We shall continue giving updates for Oman, UAE and Qatar. Not only seasonal forecasts but track developments if they happen. We mean a tropical cyclone or an Arabian Sea low pressure area wandering off towards the region.

Neoguri Weakens But Will Hit Kyushu With 150 Kph Winds

Satellite infra-red image of Neoguri taken today (July 9, 2014) at 3 AM GMT.

NEOGURI is no longer the monster it was a day ago. The weather front from China has steered it away towards Japan but also weakened it. But when it will hit Kyushu islands today (July 9, 2014) it will throw up winds of 150 kph. Not a sneeze that.

Neoguri is a slow moving storm. That is why it is dangerous. It might have weakened but it will move slowly over Japan, hence prolonging its destructive capabilities. It will hit Tokyo on the morning of July 11, 2014. So it will move over Japan for two days.

It reminds one of the destructive super cyclone that hit Orissa (India) in 1999. It had just hovered over the Orissa coast for a day or two. And battered it remorselessly. Cruel storms I call them. Who says nature is kind and gentle? Japan is luckier. Neoguri has weakened, the 1999 cyclone had lingered on as a super cyclone with winds of 300 kph. Phew!

But Neoguri seems to be weakening earlier than expected. It is yet to hit Kyushu islands and the winds have fallen to 90 kph. The storm is weakening fast.

Latest JTWC bulletin says,

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 32
FEET.

This image was taken at 0225 hrs GMT today, July 9, 2014. The storm is weakening.

HISTORY

THE TRACK HISTORY OF TYPHOON NEOGURI

Big Tropical "Ma-On" To Hit Japan In Two Days

Monday July 18, 2011. Ma-On approaches Japan

The big big storm Ma-on stands menacingly 270 miles SSE of the island of Iwo Jima. Latitude 140.6 E. Longitude  20.6 N. The southern island of Iwo Jima will start experiencing the approaching storm from Sunday (July 17, 2011). Ma-On will not pass through Japan. That means, the country will not bear the brunt of strong winds. The storm will approach the Japanese mainland then move along the coast for two-three days then move away eastward, weakening all the time.

HIGHLIGHTS OF TYPHOON MA-ON

• The coast of south Japan will start experiencing strong winds from Monday (July 18, 2011).
• Ma-On will touch Iwo-Jima and then creep along the coast for the next two three days
• Maximum wind speeds will not be felt in Japan proper but in the sea off the country's coast. Speeds may touch 150 kph. Big wind!
• Even Japan will face strong winds.
• Mostly affected will be the islands of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu. Tokyo is in for winds and rain. More like a deluge I would say. From Monday (July 18, 2011). till Wednesday. Lots and lots of rain.

This is where the storm is now. Friday. July 17, 2011.6.00 Hrs UTC