JUNE 8, 2016
The Middle East countries, especially Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and parts of Saudi Arabia will not remain their usual rainless in the coming months in 2016. This is what the American climate forecast model the NMME predicts in its latest forecast issued today for July to October.
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The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
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These countries receive hardly any rains from June to November. The average is a few millimetres in these months. But it is perhaps going to be different this year if the forecast by NMME is to be believed. It predicts an excess of 10-30mm of rainfall in each of the months. Please see the monthly forecast maps below. The figures are millimetres (mm).
For a country practically dry during this time of the year, an inch or two is substantial. Perhaps it will be an overflow from the bumper monsoon expected in India and South Asia this year.
Only October will see a dry period except for parts of Oman. Saudi Arabia will see spells of rainfall from July to September. Especially southern parts of the arid country.
A week earlier the Canadian CANSIPS model forecast had predicted a similar wet scenario for the region. We had said in the article......"Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016."
We shall continue giving updates for Oman, UAE and Qatar. Not only seasonal forecasts but track developments if they happen. We mean a tropical cyclone or an Arabian Sea low pressure area wandering off towards the region.
1 comment:
Hope this happens. Thank u very much for update. Expecting wet period from July to sept in UAE
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