Cyclone NILAM Will Bring Heavy Rains To Southern, Eastern and Parts of Central India.
Cyclone NILAM is powerful. It is a very moisture laden system and its inherent strength is going to being heavy rains to not only Tamil Nadu Eastern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh but also to Orissa, eastern Maharashtra, West Bengal and parts of Madhya Pradesh in the next week.
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Rainfall Prediction Map owing to NIlam. From Oct 31, 2012 to Nov 7, 2012 |
Latest Cyclone NILAM Predicted Path: Target PUDUCHERRY (Pondicherry) 5 PM Wednesday
The latest predictions by the JTWC say that Cyclone NILAM is going to hit the Tamil Nadu coast bang onto Puducherry at Wednesday 5 PM (IST).. So powerful is the storm that it will keep moving inland for another 24 hours with storm strength and reach Bellary in Karnataka when it will dissipate below storm strength.
Cyclone NILAM Will Bring Heavy Rains To Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Orissa And West Bengal
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Projected path of NILAM according to JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) |
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Increasing rainfall |
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Rainfall prediction map owing to NILAM. Oct. 31, 2012 to Nov 3, 2012 |
Cyclone Nilam To Hit Chennai Wednesday (October 31, 2012) Evening. VERY HEAVY RAINS IN TN AND AP
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Expected path of Cyclone NILAM |
Expected Nilam is still a deep depression, but it will start intensifying and turn into a cyclone by today (Tuesday, 30 Nov. 2012) evening. It will then hit the coast just below Chennai by tomorrow (Wednesday, October 31, 2012) evening.
Nilam will be a moderate storm with wind speeds exceeding 62 KMPH at the least. Though gale winds may touch the 100 KMPH mark. Nothing to sneeze at that.
Lots of rain. It must be raining in Chennai and the rest of Tamil Nadu now. The rains are going to increase all the time. Expect a deluge.
There will be heavy rains in Andhra Pradesh too over the days
Increasing rainfall |
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Rainfall prediction map. Cyclone NILAM. October 30 to November 3, 2012 |
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and
lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 30th October, 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal
near lat. 9.0°N and long. 82.0°E, about 500 Km southsoutheast of Chennai. The system would
intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards for some more time and then
cross north Tamilnadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and
Nellore by 31st October, 2012 afternoon/evening.
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Latest image of Cyclone Nilam |
A New Storm To Develop In The Arabian Sea ON October 30, 2012
But the expected Bay of Bengal Cyclone NILAM is siphoning off all the moisture from the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka, so the expected storm in the Arabian Sea is going to be weak..
It will form 800 KMs west of Colombo potter around for a while than die down near the Kerala coast.
The expected co-ordinates of the new system....
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2012 6.4N 70.9E WEAK
00UTC 30.10.2012 7.0N 71.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2012 6.8N 72.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2012 7.6N 73.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2012 8.6N 74.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2012 10.0N 74.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2012 11.1N 76.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2012 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
It will form 800 KMs west of Colombo potter around for a while than die down near the Kerala coast.
The expected co-ordinates of the new system....
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2012 6.4N 70.9E WEAK
00UTC 30.10.2012 7.0N 71.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2012 6.8N 72.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2012 7.6N 73.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2012 8.6N 74.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2012 10.0N 74.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2012 11.1N 76.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.11.2012 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Tropical Storm NILAM To Hit Tamil Nadu On October 31, 2012
It is certain that the deep depression is hovering around in the Bay of Bengal. It is going to intensify further and move towards the Tamil Nadu coast in the next few hours.And hit it on October 31, 2012. The moot point is will it be strong enough to be christened NILAM by the stingy IMD?
Some forecasts say that the system is going to throw gale winds>>> 80-90 KMPH. Now that definitely means a cyclone. It should get the name NILAM. But IMD? Anyway.
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Increasing wind speeds |
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Projected Path of Expected Cyclone NILAM (October 29-October 31, 2012) |
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.50 N and longitude 84.00 E, about 550 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 300 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) is gong to intensify rapidly and hit the Tamil Nadu coast south of Chennai on October 31, 2012.
Very strong winds and lots of rains. So strong is the system that in the next few days it will move along northward and bring rains (Not only Tamil Nadu) to Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.
Folks, bad girl NILAM is coming!
Very strong winds and lots of rains. So strong is the system that in the next few days it will move along northward and bring rains (Not only Tamil Nadu) to Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.
Folks, bad girl NILAM is coming!
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Increasing rainfall |
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Rain Prediction Map Oct. 30-Nov 3, 2012 Owing to Expected Cyclone NILAM |
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bay of bengal,
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Cyclone NILAM May form In The Bay of Bengal: Cross Tamil Nadu Coast Oct. 31, 2012
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The Bay of Bengal storm touches the Tamil Nadu coast south of Chennai. October 31, 2012 |
But the scenario is fuzzy right now. The expected storm may or may not be of Cyclone strength (May not be christened NILAM). It may turn out to be just a depression, deep or otherwise.
And as a result, lots of rains expected in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on October 30-31, 2012
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Rain prediction map. Lots of rain in Tamil Nadu on October 31, 2012 |
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
WHAT THE INDIAN MET DEPT SAY (TODAY OCTOBER 28, 2012, 5:30 AM)
The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 Km above mean sea level. The system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
Latest Cyclone NILAM Predicition: Nov. 3, 2012: Target Kutch!
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Novemeber 3, 2012. Cyclone NILAM hits the Gujarat coast |
NILAM is going to be big. May be a super cyclone. (See the image below). It is going to hit the Gujarat coast in Kutch district on November 3rd, 2012.
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Projected path of Cyclone NILAM. October 30, 2012 to November 3, 2012 |
So big the storm is going to be that the entire western region of India; the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and coastal Maharashtra are going to receive rains. The most drenching is reserved for Kutch in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
So massive and strong is tha system that it may move inwards into India cut across Rajasthan and give rains to Delhi and Uttaranchal too! All these states will get massive rains till the 5th of November., 2012.
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Rainfall Prediction Map: Cyclone NILAM: October 31, 2012 to November 4, 2012. |
Tags
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arabian sea,
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gujarat,
Nilam,
November,
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Massive Arabian Sea Cyclone NILAM To Hit Gujarat On November 3, 2012
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Expected Cyclone NILAM on November 2, 2012 between Oman and Gujarat |
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Cyclone MURJAN made landfall on November 25, 2012 at the Horn of Africa. |
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NILAM takes birth. Oct. 29, 2012 |
In the next few days it will start moving in a general northerly direction gaining strength all the time and turn into a massive cyclone. On the 2nd of November it will reach the seas between the Gujarat and Oman coast. Present forecasts say it will then tilt eastwards and hit the Gujarat coast near Dwarka on November 3, 2012,
It is early days now. So there are equal chances that Nilam may hit Oman, Pakistan or Gujarat.
One thing is certain. Big Cyclone NILAM is coming.
Keep reading this site for the latest info.
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Projected Path of Cyclone NILAM. Wind Speeds. October 29 to November 3, 2012 |
Arabian Sea Claims MURJAN, Will Claim Cyclone NILAM Too!
Strange this year. Two cyclones in the North Indian Ocean in October, November 2012. Both in the Arabian Sea. And both expected to hit Somalia (Or at least affect)!
The first MURJAN is likely to enter Somalia today itself.
The second cyclone, NILAM, will form on the 31st of October, 2012 off the coat of Somalia. It will intensify and touch the Horn of Africa on November 3 and then move northerly and make landfall on the Oman-Yemen border on November 5.
Folks in Oman! The remnants of NILAM will drift upwards towards entire Oman and the country may receive some showers around November 8, 2012. No heavy falls. But some rains possible.
As for the Bay of Bengal a system will try to form on October 28 off the coast of Visakhapatnam. But it will not gain much strength. Not even a low pressure. But there will be rains on the Tamil Nadu and North Andhra coast. These areas any way get rains now because it is the North East Monsoon season. But no significant storms likely in the future.
The first MURJAN is likely to enter Somalia today itself.
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Cyclone MURJAN will enter Somalia today |
The second cyclone, NILAM, will form on the 31st of October, 2012 off the coat of Somalia. It will intensify and touch the Horn of Africa on November 3 and then move northerly and make landfall on the Oman-Yemen border on November 5.
Folks in Oman! The remnants of NILAM will drift upwards towards entire Oman and the country may receive some showers around November 8, 2012. No heavy falls. But some rains possible.
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Wind speed map. Predicted path of cyclone NILAM. Nov 1-Nov 5, 2012 |
Tags
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cyclone,
Murjan,
Nilam,
North Indian Ocean,
November,
October
No Murjan, Just A Depression In Bay Of Bengal, Nov. 2012?
Ah! The vagaries of nature! Unpredictable nature!
Latest forecasts say that the Bay of Bengal storm expected to form in the end of October, 2012 will be below cyclone strength. So it will not be honored with the name Murjan.
The expected system will turn into a low pressure area on October 31, 2012. It will initially move towards Orissa, but them abruptly start moving eastwards towards the Myanmar. As it does it will gain strength and turn into a depression and hit the Burmese coast on Nov. 3, 2012.
RAINFALL PREDICTION FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL DEPRESSION OCT-NOV 2012
Latest forecasts say that the Bay of Bengal storm expected to form in the end of October, 2012 will be below cyclone strength. So it will not be honored with the name Murjan.
The expected system will turn into a low pressure area on October 31, 2012. It will initially move towards Orissa, but them abruptly start moving eastwards towards the Myanmar. As it does it will gain strength and turn into a depression and hit the Burmese coast on Nov. 3, 2012.
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Projected path (showing wind speed) of the Bay of Bengal rain system. 31 Oct.-3 Nov. 2012 |
The Indian states of Orissa and northern Andhra Pradesh will receive some rain on October 31, 2012 as the low pressure area initially moves towards the Indian coast.
But Myanmar is going to receive very heavy rainfall on November 3-4, 2012.A real drenching. A natural tragedy awaits Myanmar.
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Rain prediction map. Bay of Bengal depression October 31-November 4, 2012 |
Last few words. It is still ten more days to go. Who the hell can say where the storm will go? The coastal areas of Bay of Bengal will have to be on their toes in the next ten days. India, Bangladesh and Myanmar? Where?
Expected Bay Of Bengal Cyclone MURJAN Will Hit Orissa On October 29, 2012
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Cyclone Murjan will hit Orissa on October 28, 2012 |
We had predicted earlier that the expected tropical cyclone Murjan which is going to form in the Bay of Bengal (North Indian Ocean) will touch the Orisaa coast and then move into West Bengal.
Well, Murjan seems to have changed its mind. It is going to shower its "affections" only on Orissa. It is expected to hit the coast at Gopalpur-in-sea on October 28, 2012 and drench the state in the next two days.
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Point of impact. Murjan will hit the Orissa coat at Gopal-on-sea on October 28, 2012 |
Murjan is going to be a big nasty storm. High winds. Heavy rains. Super cyclone? May be.
It is time the Orissa government (I am sure they already are) start preparing for the worst. Murjan is going to be big bad boy.
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Predicted path of cyclone "Murjan". October 26, 2012 to Oct. 28, 2012 |
Big Cyclone MURJAN Likely To Hit Indian East Coast On October 30, 2012
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Weather Prediction map. October 30, 2012. Wind speed map. Red color is real bad news. Winds excess of 70 Kmph |
It is October and time for the North Indian Ocean to churn up big destructive tropical cyclones. Well, this year is going to be no different. The Arabian Sea is going to spawn a low pressure area but it will move towards the Horn of Africa skipping its usual haunts, Gujarat and Oman.
But the main prediction is the big bad storm that the Bay of Bengal is going to engender. The birth place of the cyclone is going to be east of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.On the 26th of October, 2012.
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Rain prediction amp. October 27, 2012. Andaman, Nicobar Islands getting a drenching. Color pink means deluge. |
After drenching the Andaman islands on the 27th the storm will rapidly gain strength and move north-westwards and reach the coast on the Orissa-Andhra Pradesh border on October 30, 2012.
Prediction now say it will then start losing steam and start moving along the coast in a north-easterly direction and make landfall on the Bangladesh-North East Indian border on October 31, 2012.
The places to get a real drenching? Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Northern Andhra Pradesh coastal areas, Orissa, Bangladesh coast and India's north-eastern states of Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and parts of Assam. West Bengal, Bangladesh and the north eastern Indian states mentioned will receive rainfall till the 2nd of November.
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Rain prediction map. October 31, 2012. The storm moves to make landfall. Light blue color means heavy rains |
Also we are now saying that the storm will weaken before it makes landfall. This too is hard to say with conviction.
One thing is certain. A big cyclone is going to form in the Bay of Bengal in the next ten days. The governments of India and Bangladesh will have to watch the seas closely in the next few days.
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Rain prediction map. October 30, 2012. The storm drenching coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. |
Latest forecasts say that the storm is going to hit the Orissa coast on the 29th of October, 2012. It will them move into West Bengal and traverse the state moving northwards.Heavy rains throughout West Bengal (October 30, 2012), North Bengal, Sikkim and eastern Nepal on the 31st October, 2012. Orissa coast is in for strong gale and heavy downpour on the 29th of October.
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Rain prediction map. Oct. 29 to Oct. 31, 2012. Cyclone Murjan |
Tags
2012,
bay of bengal,
cyclone,
Indian East Coast,
Murjan,
October,
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