Storm 5A Weakens, Will Bring Rains To Balochistan

  Latest image of remains of Storm 5A. Nov 30, 2011. 5 AM (GMT or UTC)

Storm 5A is now not even a depression. It is a low pressure area and weakening all the time. It will dissipate totally in a day or two. But it is going to bring quite a few showers to Balochistan in Pakistan. Gwadar is in for a drenching tomorrow (Thursday, December 1, 2011).

Oman? May be a few showers in the north-eastern tip of the country. Even that seems unlikely. Muscat will get not rain. Sorry folks.
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Arabian Sea Strom 05A To Fizzle Out Mid Sea: May Bring Rains To Oman

Latest Images of 05A

Image Taken 0700 Hrs UTC Nov. 29, 2011


Image Taken 0700 Hrs UTC Nov. 29, 2011


 Latest image of 05A (Nov 29, 2011, 0600 Hrs UTC)

Storm 05A will never grow up to be full fledged cyclone and will not be honored with a name. So Thane will have to wait till next year. 05A is now a deep depression but it is unlikely to bring any rains to any countries around.(Oman will get rains. Read on) All it is doing is being a nuisance to the ships in the Arabian Sea.

5A is likely to slowly weaken while it totters around in the Arabian Sea and die out by December 2, 2011.

Though the EFS forecast model says 5A will not die alone in the sea. It will move to the Oman coast by Wednesday (November 29, 2011) and give it considerable rains till December 2, 2011. The maximum falls will be Dec. 1-2 and the towns of Sur and Al Kamil will get a drenching. Muscat will get some precipitation too.


Balochistan and parts of southern Iran too will get some rains.

EFS forecast model says 05A will bring some rain to Oman on Dec 1, 2011
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5A To Be Christened "Thane" Today: Will Move To Oman? Or Die Mid Sea?


Latest satellite image of 5A (6.00 hrs, UTC). It is a deep depression now and maybe christened "Thane" by today evening

Tropical storm 5A (Five A) may not reach Pakistan after all. It lies about 650 nautical miles south of Karachi now. Because of its influence  Karnataka is presently getting a drenching (Including Bangalore). The rains will continue in northern coastal Karnataka and southern coastal Maharashtra till tomorrow (Tuesday).



The storm will intensify in the next 24 hours into cyclone Thane by Monday afternoon (Nov 28, 2011)(UTC), move in a NW direction and then start self-destructing. As it weakens it may either...
  • Scenario 1: Curve north-easterly and die peacefully in the Arabian Sea. All it will do is bring some rains to Saurashtra on Tuesday (Nov 29, 2011)
  • Scenario 2: Moves slowly towards the Oman coast and then dissipate. But it will bring quite heavy rains to Oman. Especially the north-eastern coastal areas of the country for 3 days beginning Nov 30, 2011. Balochistan in Pakistan too will get some rains till December 2, 2011
Forecast Maps For 5A: Scenario 1

It brings some rains to Saurashtra and then subsides in the sea itself.

Scenario 2 Forecast Map

Rains in north-eastern coast of Oman for about 3 days, till December 2, 2011
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Cyclone Thane Is Coming! Will It Hit Karachi? Or Oman? On December 1, 2011. Or May be Gujarat?

TROPICAL STORM 5A UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2011 
  The latest infra-red image of Tropical Storm 5A

The two forecast models still differ as to the fate of tropical storm 5A (Thane)...

The GFS says it will hit Karachi on December 1, 2011. According to this forecast Oman will not be affected but Karachi is in for it. 

GFS forecast. 5A hits Karachi on December 1, 2011

The European models say that it will go to the Omani coast and die down there. It will give lots of rains to Oman from November 30 to December 4, 2011. Southern Iran and Gwadar area in Pakistan too will receive some precipitation

EFS forecast. Rains approach Oman on Nov 30, 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------- 



The Arabian Sea this year is even more boisterous than her sister the Bay Of Bengal. It threw up storm Keila. Then another depression a few days later; both of which drenched Oman in the earlier part of November, 2011.


Now another storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast. Cyclone "Thane" has been born. Presently it hovers in the Arabian Sea about 100 nautical miles south of Cochin.


Forecast models differ as to where it will make landfall.


 The GFS model says it will hit the Pakistani coast at Karachi on December 1, 2011. It will then weaken and move inwards into Pakistan bringing rainfall to even Lahore!


The EFS model says it will kiss the Omani coast then hit land on the Pakistan-Iran border on December 1, 2011. According to this forecast Oman is for a drenching on Nov 30 and Dec 1. Very, very heavy rainfall. And very strong winds.


Let us see what happens. I tend to put my trust in the GFS forecast. Karachi in for a big, big storm and lots of rains on December 1, 2011.


Watch out, Karachi! Storms are by nature very unpredictable. May be 05A may take a liking to Gujarat! It may curve a little more and may be hit Gujarat! 


Let us wait and watch.


(CLICK TO ENLARGE) Projected path of Storm 05A (May be named Thane) according to JTWC


 GFS forecast. November 27, 2011. Storm 5A slowly gathers strength and moves north-westward.

 GFS forecast. November 30, 2011. 5A is big and moves past Gujarat and heads towards Pakistan

GFS forecast. December 1, 2011. 5A curves in and about to hit Karachi


EFS Forecast. Storm 5A nudges Oman. Decmeber 1, 2011. Lots of rains and wind in Oman November 30-December 1, 2011.
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Arabian Sea Storm Heading To South Omani Coast: Heavy Rains In Pakistan Nov 9-10, 2011


Latest image of Storm 4A. It is nudging the Oman coast. Surprisingly Pakistan will get most of the rains. On Nov 9-10, 2011

The low pressure system, as predicted by us, has formed in the Arabian Sea. According to the Indian Met Dept. it is likely to be become stronger. It presently lies 10.5N 67.6E, Approximately 595 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST of Mumbai, India. Forecasts say it will move in a NNW direction towards the coast of Southern Oman. By that time it may strengthen into a depression. Heavy rains are likely to lash Oman on the 8th, 9th and 10th of November.

The storm will start weakening on the 11th of November and start slithering down into the Gulf of Aden.

Like Keila this low pressure area (or a depression) will hover around the southern Oman coast. It is expected to reach Oman on Nov 8, 2011. The towns to get the most rains? Dawwah, Kalban, Khaluf, Duqm, Sawqirah, Sharbatat, Marmul, Sadh and Salalah.

Muscat will get rains on Nov 8, 9. The coastal areas of the country are likely to get downpours till the 11th of November. Especially the central coastal areas; they will get the heaviest falls. Pakistan may get a shower on the 10th of Nov.

Oman is in for a very wet spell.

Pakistan is for heavy rains on Nov 9-10. Balochistan and Sindh. Karachi too.

WHAT THE JTWC (JOnt Typhoon Warning Center) SAYS ABOUT THE LOW PRESSURE

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 72.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.......THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
Rain Prediction Maps For Oman Nov 8-11, 2011


 Nov 7, 2011

 Nov 8, 2011. Muscat gets rains as the storm approaches the Omani coast

 Nov 9. 2011. Rains continue in Muscat. Coastal Oman gets heavy falls.


 Nov 10, 2011. Very heavy rains

 Nov 11, 2011

Nov 12, 2011. The system slinks down to the Gulf of aden
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Indian Southern States In For Rains Till Nov 8, 2011

The Arabian Sea this November has been very disturbed. First it threw up a low pressure which went to the coast of Oman and turned into cyclone Keila. Now forecasts say another low pressure area is expected to build in this sea on Sunday (Nov 6, 2011). Owing to this the four southern states of India are in for rains. Especially affected will be Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and southern Andhra Pradesh. The wet spell is expected to last till Nov 8, 2011. It will dry up once the low pressure system moves away northward.


Rain Forecast Maps

 Rainfall Nov 4, 2011
 Predicted rainfall Nov 5, 2011
 Rainfall Nov 6, 2011
 Rainfall expected Nov 7, 2011. Notice the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea moving northwards
Nov 8, 2011. Kerala gets downpours. The rest of the states are dry. The menacing storm system now approaches the coasts of Oman, Gujarat and Pakistan
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Rains To Continue In Oman

The remains of KEILA will bring more rains in southern Oman for the next 2-3 days.

Cyclone Keila has given a lot of rainfall to Oman in the last few days. Now Keila is no more. It is just a low pressure area now near Salalah in southern Oman. But it is going to give heavy rains in the area (Salalah, Raysut, Thamarit, Mudhay and Sadh) in the next 3 days till Sunday (Nov 6, 2011) The system will then move into Yemen and break-up completely and drift northwards bringing rains to UAE and Qatar.


The whole of Oman is expected to receive some precipitation for at least a week. Especially the coastal areas in the Arabian Sea. Then later another little wet spell around Nov 13, 2011 as the remnants of the low pressure area (which is likely to form on Nov 6, 2011 and move to the waters near the coasts of Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat) drift into Oman.


Nov 13, 2011. Remains of the Arabian Sea Low Pressure will drift into Oman and bring it more rains.
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Qatar And UAE In For Rains Shortly Thanks To A Dead Keila

Keila is bringing rains to unexpected places. It has drenched Oman in the last few days (And will bring some more rain for a few more days). Now as it starts breaking up, Qatar and UAE are in for some sharp showers. Qatar first. The rains will start by Sunday evening (Nov 6, 2011) and will continue for 24 hours. The heaviest falls will be on Sunday night.


UAE (Abu Dhabi). The rains will start Monday early morning (Nov 7, 2011) and increase gradually. They will taper off by Tuesday night. It is going to be a very wet Monday in Abu Dhabi.


Rain Prediction Maps

 Rains in Qatar (see the white arrow) on Nov6, 2011 Sunday

Rains arrive in UAE and Abu Dhabi on Monday (Nov 7, 2011) night
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Latest Forecast Says Nov 6 Arabian Sea Storm To Be A Mere Low Pressure Area


Slightly dampening news. The expected Arabian Sea storm to be formed on Nov 6, 2011 is not going to be full-blooded cyclone (Nor a Depression). It will be a low pressure system.

The storm will form as said earlier in the Arabian Sea about 1000 Kms NW of Maldives. It will generally move towards the seas between Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat. It will reach there on Nov 10, 2011.

There will be a lot of rains in the sea and then the system will disintegrate around Nov 11, 2011. Some substantial precipitation in Sindh and Gujarat on Nov 11, 12. The remains will drift to Oman and give it some rainfall on Nov 13, 14, 15.

 Nov 6, 2011. The low pressure system is born

 Nov 8, 2011 The storm system moves north towards the seas near Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat

Nov 10, 2011. The low pressure kisses the Omani coast

 RAIN PREDICTION MAP NOV 11, 2011

Nov 11, 2011. Rainfall forecast map. Look at the amount of rains! The system then starts to fizzle out giving some good rains to Sindh and Gujarat





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Another Forecast Model Says Arabian Sea Storm To Go To Gulf Of Aden

Disappointing forecast for those of us in India, Pakistan and Oman who love storms and rains. The NOGAPS forecast system predicts that a storm system will form in the Arabian Sea on Nov 6, 2011. In the place we have forecast; about 1000 Kms NW of Maldives. 

But this forecast says (Alas!) the low pressure system will moves towards the Gulf of Aden and reach it on the 10th of Nov., 2011!

I feel a little down, I admit. But I have found that the GFS forecast system is generally more accurate than the others. And GFS forecasts the storm system will come towards the seas of Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat.


Rain Forecast Map According To NOGAPS Forecast

 NOGAPS Forecast: Nov 6, 2011. The low-pressure area is formed

 NOGAPS Forecast: Nov 7 2011. The low pressure system moves towards the Gulf Of Aden

NOGAPS Forecast: Nov 10, 2011. The system reaches the Gulf Of Aden. Horn of Africa gets heavy rains

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New Big Depression To Form In Arabian Sea Nov 6, 2011

 Wind speed forecast map. The expected depression will cover a large area. A big storm. Seen at its full power on Nov 9, 2011

While the short lived Keila slinks away to Yemen, a new big storm will take birth in the Arabian Sea on Nov 6, 2011. It will not be of cyclone strength; a depression or may be a deep depression. But the remarkable thing is it is going to be depression covering a large area. A big one in short.

As said earlier it will move to the seas between the Omani and Gujarat coast till November 9, 2011. But then it will start breaking up on the 10th of November.Heavy rainfall will lash Pakistani coast on Nov 11, 2011. Gujarat will too get some rains on Nov 13.  as the remnants of the depression will drift towards the state.
Rain forecast map. Sindh and Balochistan coastal areas are in for flooding on Nov 11, 2011

Rain prediction map. Nov 8, 2011. The depression will throw a lot of rain into the Arabian Sea. The purple color means a deluge
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Oman In For Rains Thanks To Little Keila



Now who would have thought it would turn out this way? The storm in the Arabian Sea in June 2011 (Remember it?) traversed from Kerala all the way to the Gujarat coast; took ten days to do that and what happened? It was not even honored with a name (IMD called it 01A)! And this piddly little short-lived storm off the South Oman coast gets the name Keila!

Anyway.

Oman is in for rains for the next 2-3 days due to Keila. The rains will dry up in the rest of Oman after Keila moves away weakened, below storm strength, into Yemen. But not Muscat. Muscat will keep getting showers till at least the 8th of November, 2011.

 Lots of rains presently in Oman and the sea thanks to Keila

In the next two days Omani towns of Sadh, Saladah, Raysut, Mudhay, Thamarit and Marmul are in for a drenching. The rest of the country too will get light to heavy falls in the next 2 days

Oman is likely to get more rains around November 14-15, 2011 owing to new storm that is going to get spawned in the mighty Arabian Sea. But more about that elsewhere.

Track/Path of Keila
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No Big Storm? Just A Depression In The Arabian Sea?

The cliche that weather is very unpredictable is certainly true. Just yesterday forecasts said that a big big cyclone would ram the Pakistani coast on the 9th of November, 2011. Now the same forecasts say a storm yes. But not a big one. A depression.


Now even a depression is nothing to sneeze at. They have strong winds. They cause downpours.


A depression is expected to form around the 6th of November, 2011 in the Arabian Sea 1000 Kms NW of Maldives. It is expected to move gradually north-westwards towards the Oman coast for the next 2 days. Once it nears the Omani coast it will gain strength and hover around for a day or two. Then it will start weakening and move North-easterly towards the Pakistan coast. By the 12th or 13th it will slowly fizzle out just off the Pakistani coast.


The result? Rain in Sindh on November 10, 11 and more of it in Gujarat on the 12th and 13th of November. Gujarat will benefit rain wise as the remnants of the depression will drift to it. Oman will hardly get any rain from this depression even though it will kiss the coast.


Still many days to go. Lets keep watching... May be a big storm might come. Or maybe no storm at all! Vagaries of nature.


Wind Speed Prediction Map

 The depression will be strongest on Nov 9, 2011 when near the coast of Oman

Rain Forecast Maps

 Wow! A deluge in the sea! Nov 10, 2011

Nov 12, 2011. The storm breaks and drifts towards Gujarat, bringing rains
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