TROPICAL STORM 5A UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2011
The latest infra-red image of Tropical Storm 5A
The two forecast models still differ as to the fate of tropical storm 5A (Thane)...
The GFS says it will hit Karachi on December 1, 2011. According to this forecast Oman will not be affected but Karachi is in for it.
GFS forecast. 5A hits Karachi on December 1, 2011
The European models say that it will go to the Omani coast and die down there. It will give lots of rains to Oman from November 30 to December 4, 2011. Southern Iran and Gwadar area in Pakistan too will receive some precipitation
EFS forecast. Rains approach Oman on Nov 30, 2011
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The Arabian Sea this year is even more boisterous than her sister the Bay Of Bengal. It threw up storm Keila. Then another depression a few days later; both of which drenched Oman in the earlier part of November, 2011.
Now another storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast. Cyclone "Thane" has been born. Presently it hovers in the Arabian Sea about 100 nautical miles south of Cochin.
Forecast models differ as to where it will make landfall.
The GFS model says it will hit the Pakistani coast at Karachi on December 1, 2011. It will then weaken and move inwards into Pakistan bringing rainfall to even Lahore!
The EFS model says it will kiss the Omani coast then hit land on the Pakistan-Iran border on December 1, 2011. According to this forecast Oman is for a drenching on Nov 30 and Dec 1. Very, very heavy rainfall. And very strong winds.
Let us see what happens. I tend to put my trust in the GFS forecast. Karachi in for a big, big storm and lots of rains on December 1, 2011.
Watch out, Karachi! Storms are by nature very unpredictable. May be 05A may take a liking to Gujarat! It may curve a little more and may be hit Gujarat!
Let us wait and watch.
(CLICK TO ENLARGE) Projected path of Storm 05A (May be named Thane) according to JTWC
GFS forecast. November 27, 2011. Storm 5A slowly gathers strength and moves north-westward.
GFS forecast. November 30, 2011. 5A is big and moves past Gujarat and heads towards Pakistan
GFS forecast. December 1, 2011. 5A curves in and about to hit Karachi
EFS Forecast. Storm 5A nudges Oman. Decmeber 1, 2011. Lots of rains and wind in Oman November 30-December 1, 2011.
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