The JTWC Predicts A Big Storm But Other Forecast Models Doubtful

The JTWC center has already declared the Arabian Sea storm as a tropical cyclone 02A. It further says that it is going to be a big storm. 

But in its bulletin it also says...

LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

Put it simply it means that few forecast models agree that the storm is going to go westward towards Oman. Also forecast models disagree on the winds this system is going to throw up. So the JTWC itself says "....Based on this, there is low confidence in the forecast".

We have wait for what the JTWC says in its further bulletins to know how things stand. Further bulletins will be issued at 9 AM, 3 PM, 9 PM today and 3 AM tomorrow (all times GMT). We will keep updating you.

What do the major forecasts say?

GFS: It says the storm will intensify for a day or two then weaken. Then it will intensify again and then weaken into a low pressure area when it touches north Oman.

ECMWF: The storm will intensify a little and go NNW towards Gujarat and dissipate in 2-3 days.

CMC: The storm will intensify a little and go near the Gujarat coast then weaken into a low pressure area which will potter around in the sea.

NAVGEM: The storm will intensify into a tropical cyclone and hit north Oman on June 14, Saturday.

So, as things stand there is confusion and disagreement on what is to become of the present Arabian Sea storm. 

This storm has really left the weatherman totally confused. Is it why the met departments of different countries are keeping mum? Silence is golden, eh!