Earlier forecast models had been saying the Bay of Bengal low pressure system that is currently moving over Odisha, Chattisgarh would go to Rajasthan via Madhya Pradesh onto flood Delhi Haryana on around August 8, 9.
But latest forecast data from NOAA's GFS model says the system will not go to Rajasthan, Delhi but move to Gujarat.
If this happens a deluge awaits Gujarat from August 7, 2016.
The GFS predicts very heavy rains in south, central, north Gujarat, Kutch and finally in coastal Sindh in the coming 3-4 days.
We are monitoring the situation and will constantly analyse data to see if this GFS prediction stays unchanged and is confirmed by other forecast models
We will provide constant updates.
UPDATE:AUGUST 5, 2016, 1230 IST
The other reliable forecast models still insist the system will go to Rajasthan. Who is right? The next 24 hours will tell. We tend to agree with the other models. Let us see.
UPDATE:AUGUST 5, 2016, 1700 IST
The GFS model in its latest data issued today at 0600 hours GMT still stays firm on its prediction. It says the flooding rain system will hit Central, South Gujarat on Sunday noon Indian Standard Time. One shudders to think of Valsad which is still reeling from flooding, if this monster rain system hits it on August 7.
UPDATE:AUGUST 6, 2016, 0730 IST
Thankfully for Gujarat, it is now almost certain that the Bay of Bengal system will go towards Rajasthan via Madhya Pradesh.
UPDATE: AUGUST 6, 2016, 1800 IST
The GFS in its latest forecast issued today at 0600 hours GMT, says the rainmaker system over Madhya Pradesh presently will move to southern Rajasthan and then slink into north Gujarat area around Tuesday, August 9, and bring heavy rains there. Personally we think it is improbable. The GFS model is prone to make inaccurate forecasts at times.
Parts of Gujarat, especially South Gujarat, and parts of Saurashtra are still reeling from flooding rains from an upper air cyclonic circulation. Meanwhile another system from the Bay of Bengal is moving west. GFS model thinks it will hit Gujarat in 48 hours. The next 24 hours will tell if the nightmare situation will realise or not.
2 comments:
any chance of flooding rain in bhuj kutch
Sir the European models remains more accurate compare to gfs for the forecast of this region. I too agree with u n this system will not hit gujrat. However Allah knows better
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