JULY 23, 2016
The southwest monsoon in South Asia in 2016 has been weird. Though it has dumped satisfactory amounts of rainfall in almost all over India (except north Gujarat, Saurashtra-Kutch, Sindh, and western Rajasthan) there has been an utter lack of big rainmaker systems like low pressure areas and depressions (except for the recent low pressure system that drenched Madhya Pradesh for a week).
The weak low pressure area on the Andhra Pradesh coast turned out to be weaker than expected and will fizzle out soon. That has been the theme of this monsoon. Weak Bay of Bengal low pressure systems that die out too soon.
That is the reason why Saurashtra Kutch and Sindh are starved of rain this year. No low pressure areas from the Bay of Bengal. Adding salt to the injury the Arabian Sea stream of the monsoon has been totally sterile till now.
All this is perhaps because of the adverse Indian Ocean Dipole condition coupled with neutral ENSO conditions. It is hard to say when La Niña will arise. If lucky before the end of monsoon 2016.
Looking at the near future, Uttarakhand is in for flooding rains by July end. The little rain system which is presently hovering over Telangana-eastern Maharashtra will bring good rains to western Madhya Pradesh, south, central Gujarat and Rajasthan in the next 5 days.
Rain-starved Kutch region of Gujarat may receive some heavy showers on July 28-30, which may extend to southern Sindh.
The GFS model expects very heavy rains in Gujarat and Sindh around August 5, 2016. But that is a long way off.
All we can do is keep our fingers crossed and await an early birth of La Niña. On a positive note, a strong low pressure area is likely to form off the Odisha coast on August 1, 2016. How sustainable it will be, and where it goes remains to be seen.
The GFS model paints an optimistic picture. (See forecast map below). It predicts that by August 8, 2016, good rains will occur almost everywhere. How much of that happens is debatable. But the fact remains this forecast model foresees an active monsoon in early August. Two heavy rain spells to hit western India, mainly Gujarat. On August 3 and August 8.
The expected increase of monsoon activity could be owing to the rise of La Niña in August. Though opinions differ about it's birth two Indian meteorologists believe a weak La Niña could kick in during August.
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RAINFALL FORECAST
July 23, Saturday: Telangana, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Goa
July 24, Sunday: Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Bihar, Karnataka
July 25, Monday: Northern Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, NE states
July 26, Tuesday: Western Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Eastern Rajasthan
July 27, Wednesday: Central Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan
July 28, Thursday: Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, coastal Sindh
July 29, Friday: Western Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa
July 30, Saturday: Rayalseema, North Gujarat, Kutch, western Rajasthan, Sindh
4 comments:
No hope of rain in July Let c what happens in august
Very good news......
Editor please tell me when the rise of la nina I think first week of August it's a huge rainy week as I looking forcast what are you saying about this?
There is disagreement among forecast agencies as to when La Niña will occur. Though some forecasts say a weak La Niña may arise in August-September. We will keep you posted of developments.
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