As predicted monsoon has brought flooding rains to northern India in the last few days. Another smaller system will bring good precipitation to Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal on July 20-21.
But the forthcoming low pressure area which will develop off the Andhra Pradesh coast on July 23, 2016 is the one to watch for. Though the low will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it moves inland, it will increase rainfall activity dramatically off the Indian west coast from July 24. It will bring good rains to Andhra, Rayalseema and Telangana.
Good rains are expected in Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Mumbai and western India, including Gujarat.
How much precipitation actually occurs remains to be seen. Wait for updates.
JULY 19, 2016 UPDATE
Though the cyclonic circulation that will form over Andhra coast will cross over to northern Karnataka, Goa coast on July 24 it will move away west into the Arabian Sea. Under its influence heavy rains may occur in Konkan, Goa, Mumbai on July 24 and in Gujarat on July 25.
There is disagreement as to course of the upcoming Bay of Bengal cyclonic circulation. The GFS model believes it will bring rains to Andhra, Telangana, eastern Maharashtra, western Madhya and Rajasthan. It thinks Gujarat will be left high and dry.
LATEST ON LA NIÑA
Not very good news for South Asia, I am afraid. Latest prediction by CPC, the US climate agency, says at present conditions are ENSO neutral. That is La Niña has not developed yet. The chances of ENSO neutral conditions remains more than the possibility of La Niña developing till November 2016. In short the chances of La Niña this monsoon are receding.
The forecast map below shows that only in September-October are the chances of La Niña more than the chances of El Niño neutral conditions. If La Niña does develop in September-October we could see good rains in the dying stages of monsoon 2016 in South Asia.
6 comments:
Sir any update for Sindh comming low pressure from andhra.
Sir final 24 in gujrat rain start
Sindh me barish k kitny chanc hain aur kab hogi
We will give updates as we receive new forecast information.
Dear Editor,
Here are the latest ENSO figures from the Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for)
It shows the following information which shows that La-Nina has already taken effect for the Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region (which affects South Asia) as of 13-July-2016. It shows the following readings for ENSO:
13JUL2016 Nino 1 + 2 21.8 0.0 Nino 3 25.1 -0.6 Nino 3.4 26.7 -0.6 Nino 4 29.1 0.3
Note: Above 0.5 indicates El-Nino, whereas below -0.5 indicates La-Nina.
So, how come you are saying that the chances of ENSO neutral conditions remains more than the possibility of La Niña developing till November 2016?
The latest CPC report......
Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, continuing during fall and lasting into winter (Fig. 6). Statistical models predict a later onset time (i.e., mid-fall) than dynamical models, and also predict a relatively weaker event. The forecaster consensus is somewhat of a compromise between the two model types, favoring La Niña onset during the August-October season, and predicting a weak event (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and -1.0°C), if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail and La Niña is favored to develop by August - October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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