Rains in Gujarat Till Saturday

AUGUST 25, 2016, THURSDAY

Under the influence of the weak cyclonic circulation presently over Rajasthan, isolated heavy rainfall will continue in Gujarat for next 48 hours. Parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and central Gujarat will be affected. Rains in Sindh on Saturday. The system will move to coastal Saurashtra by Saturday and then dissipate.

Heavy rains in Saurashtra (Rajkot, Amreli, Bhavnagar) till today midnight.

Very heavy rains in Kheda, Panchmahals, Anand, Vadodara, Sabarkantha districts till Friday evening.

Heavy showers in western Kutch on Friday-Saturday.

Showers in Sindh on Saturday.

Heavy rains possible in Dwarka on Saturday.

The GFS in contrast, predicts rainfall in Gujarat only till Friday morning. And that too only in Bhavnagar, Kheda, Ahmedabad, Surendranagar and maybe Morbi districts.

The circulation seems to have weakened considerably, contrary to expectations.

GFS FORECAST MAPS

Rains Coming To Rajasthan, Punjab, Kashmir, Himachal Soon

The Bay of Bengal depression that drenched Gujarat for 4 days will weaken and move to Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh by Wednesday through Rajasthan, Punjab and Delhi.

The depression/low lies over northern Saurashtra presently near Halvad (See Storm Tracker). Under its influence heavy showers are expected in Saurashtra till late evening today. The rains will move to northern Gujarat tomorrow and then into Rajasthan.

By Wednesday (September 23, 2015) the rains will quickly move through the state and then Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and Jammu Kashmir. Heavy rains are possible on Wednesday-Thursday in Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The following are the GFS rain forecast maps for September 21, 22, 23. The figures are in mm.

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 21, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 22, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 23, 2015

Depression 99B To Bring Heavy Rains To MP, Maharashtra, Gujarat By September 20, 2015

The depression 99B that has formed in the Bay of Bengal and presently flooding Odisha has stamina. If forecasts are to be believed this system is not only to bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, southern Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, northern Maharashtra, South and central Gujarat, and Saurashtra in the next 5 days but will in fact intensify from a 997 Mb storm to a 994 Mb storm when it hovers over Saurashtra on September 21, 2015.

It has just crossed the Odisha coast and bringing heavy precipitation to the region. In the next  72 hours it is going to reach Gujarat. On September 20, 2015 it will move onto Saurashtra and then hover over the region for a day or two and then abruptly move towards western Rajasthan and onto Haryana, Delhi and even Kashmir. Heavy rains are expected in these states till September 26.

The above was the American NCEP forecast. The European forecast differs on the track for the low pressure 99B. It predicts it will move into Sindh after Saurashtra and move north right through Pakistan. if the ECMWF model proves to be accurate then Pakistan is in for very heavy rains from September 22 onwards. And the system is expected to traverse throughout the country.

But that possibility seems to be receding. The latest data from the model says 99B will suddenly weaken on September 22, 2015 as it leaves Saurashtra and enters the Arabian Sea and then drift back through northwest Gujarat into Rajasthan and further into northern India before dissipating.

Wherever it goes 99B has a lot of energy and it will flood many areas before it peters out. And that is not expected for another 10 days.

Keep  in touch for latest forecasts for 99B. It has the computer models confused and they have been giving out different track forecasts with successive bulletins.

Big rain-maker system 99B needs to be closely monitored.

See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

Track The Storm

Depression/low 99B over Odisha. Latest satellite image taken at 0400 GMT, September 16, 2015

Bay of Bengal Low Will Move To Arabian Sea September 18, 2015

The Indian monsoon is withdrawing but storm activity has begun in the Bay of
Bengal with a low pressure area forming. This system is going to hover around near the Andhra coast for the next 5 days bringing rains to peninsular India especially in Odisha, Andhra, Telangana and northern Karnataka.

The low will then traverse west through India and hop into the Arabian Sea on September 18, 2015. Increased rainfall is expected in Konkan coast by then.

The low in the Arabian Sea may intensify into a depression and will move close by the coast of Saurashtra till September 24.

After that it will swing back into the open sea and move to northeastern coast of Oman. It will be gradually weakening all that time so Oman may expect some showers by September 27.

The European Model too supports increased storm activity near the Konkan coast around September 18-20, but it is not as hopeful as the GFS that the system will intensify much.

The European model envisages another Bay of Bengal low/depression moving through Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar and onto Uttar Pradesh around September 22, but the GFS stays mum on the forecast.

So we see different forecasts by two computer models.

The point they agree upon is... A Bay of Bengal low pressure moving west reaching Arabian Sea around September 19, 2015. The rest is differing predictions.

Monitor North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) LIVE

Arabian Sea depression to hit South Gujarat at Surat

Update: June 23, 2015, 1030 hours GMT

The European model has said depression 97A will move in a north easterly direction in the next 24 hours. Coastal Amreli district then onto South Gujarat.

The GFS in its latest data issued at 0600 GMT predicts a more northerly movement during next 24 hours. Right through Saurashtra on to north and central Gujarat.

Who will win?
-------------------------------------------------
IMD confirms 97A will move through Diu, Amreli district and move to South Gujarat.

The Arabian Sea Deep Depression will make landfall at Diu and then move through coastal Amreli and Bhavnagar districts to South Gujarat at Surat in the next 24 hours.

YESTERDAY’S  DEPRESSION  OVER  NORTHEAST  AND  ADJOINING  EASTCENTRAL  ARABIAN  SEA MOVED  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS,  INTENSIFIED  INTO  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  AND  LAY CENTRED  AT  0300  UTC  OF  TODAY,  THE  23RD  JUNE  2015,  OVER  NORTHEAST  ARABIAN  SEA  OFF SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  LATITUDE  20.5°NORTH  AND  LONGITUDE  70.5°EAST,  ABOUT  50 KM  WEST-SOUTHWEST  OF  DIU.    IT  WOULD  MOVE  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS  AND  CROSS SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  DIU  AS  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  BY  TODAY,  THE    23RD  JUNE  2015 AFTERNOON  .   ACCORDING  TO  LATEST  SATELLITE  IMAGERY,  INTENSITY  OF  THE  SYSTEM  IS  T  2.0.  THE CONVECTIVE  CLOUD  MASS  IS  SHEARED  TO  THE  WEST  OF  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  LOWEST CLOUD TOP  TEMPERATURE  IS  -88.0°C.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN  LOW  AND  MEDIUM  CLOUDS  WITH EMBEDDED  INTENSE  TO  VERY  INTENSE  CONVECTION  OVER  ARABIAN  SEA  NORTH  OF LATITUDE  14.0°NORTH  TO  22.0°NORTH  AND  EAST  OF  LONGITUDE  62.0°EAST.  THE  ESTIMATED CENTRAL  PRESSURE  IS  989  HPA.  MAXIMUM  SURFACE  WIND  SPEED  IS  ABOUT  30  KNOTS GUSTING  TO  40  KNOTS  AROUND  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  SEA  CONDITION  IS  VERY  ROUGH AROUND THE  SYSTEM CENTRE  AND ALONG  AND  OFF  GUJARAT  COAST. 

A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

A Rain System Will Touch Southern Oman On May 30, 2013

Presently things are very boring in the North Indian Ocean after the departure of MAHASEN. It is only in the end of the month that the SE monsoons will start approaching South Asia. But there is another interesting development in the Arabian Sea. No it is not a cyclone, nor even a depression.

But I am talking of the mass of rain-bearing clouds in south Arabian Sea. They have been there for quite a few days now. Initially it was expected that they will give birth to a substantial storm.

But forecasts now say the system will start moving gradually towards the coast of southern Oman and give some rains on May 30, 2013. It will rain heavily in the next two days in the sea off the coast. Then this system will move in a  NE direction and bring heavy rains to the Saurashtra (India) coast on May 6, 2013.

There are still some days to go. Will the rain system behave as we have predicted? Or will it change its mind and turn into something more substantial?

Let us wait and watch.

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map; May 30, 2013. Rainfall in southern Oman

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map: June 2, 2013. Heavy rains off the coast of southern Oman

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map: June 5, 2013. The system now reaches the Gujarat coast and brings heavy rains

Keila Is Coming Today! Will Hit Pakistan Coast Monday (June 13, 2011) Evening

Keila Is Coming! Finally! She will awake from her 'hibernation', gain strength and hit the Saurashtra coast by today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening. Keila will be a little girl. A cyclone with wind speeds of 80+ Kmph. Though she might have her nasty spells. 


Contrary to earlier predictions Keila is going to enter the Saurashtra coast more then expected before. It is also going to hit the area around Karachi (Monday, June 13, 2011) evening bang on. It will then peter out  Wednesday (June 15, 2011) near the Pakistan coast (Gwadar area).


The dampener is that another prediction model, EFS says the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is going to fizzle out soon. Not even touch the Saurshtra coast. The forecast in this article is based on the GFS model. I generally prefer the GFS. EFS, I feel, is too timid at times.

LATEST JTWC BULLETIN

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ....THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE LATEST XTREME FORECASTS

• Keila will touch the Saurashtra coast today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening near the Diu-Veraval stretch.

• The coastal towns of Diu, Veraval, Pobandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra, Mandvi will see high speed winds. 80+ Kmph. Interior Saurashtra will have lower winds. 50+ Kmph.

• Keila will hit the Pakistan coast on Monday (June 13, 2011). Including Karachi.High speed winds of 80+ Kmph.

• The storm will subside on Wednesday near Gwadar.

• Heavy showers are expected on the coastal areas of Saurashtra and in Karachi.

EXPECTED PATH OF CYCLONE KEILA

 Saturday Night. June 11, 2011. Keila touches Saurashtra coast

 Monday (June 13, 2011) Keila passes Kutch.

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) morning (Local time). Keila reaches Karachi

Wednesday (June 15, 2011) evening. End of Keila near Gwadar.

Tropical Storm To Hit Saurashtra Friday (June 10, 2011) Noon.

The present low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is likely to move north towards the Saurashtra coast and turn into a deep depression by the time it touches Diu at the southern tip of the peninsula. It will continue as a depression during the following two days as it moves along the coastal areas. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) it will  intensify rapidly into a cyclone. It will be leaving Gujarat waters by then. I guess it will be christened as "Keila" then. It will skim coastal Pakistan till Tuesday (June 14, 2011) when it will make landfall at Gwadar, near the Pakistan-southern Iran border. It will dissipate soon after.


WHAT THE JTWC SAYS (LATEST)

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 18.7N 69.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 
LATEST ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM FORECAST
The low pressure presently standing stationary west of Mumbai will slowly start moving north. By the time it touches the Saurashtra (India) coast Friday (June 10, 2011) morning it will have turned into a deep depression.
It will move along the Saurashtra coast for the next two days. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) when it leaves Indian waters near Dwarka, it will intensify rapidly into a cyclone.
This cyclone, which will be named "Keila", will skim along the Pakistani coast and only make landfall at Gwadar in Balochistan om June 14, Tuesday. After which it will dissipate on the Balochistan-southern Iran border.
All the coastal towns in India; Diu, Verval, Porbandar, Dwarka and Karachi in Pakistan will see high speed winds. 80+Kmph. 
Fishermen in both Gujarat and Sindh are warned not to venture into the sea from Friday (June 10, 2011) to Tuesday (June 14, 2011). The storm will mostly be moving in the sea so the winds there will be much more than the land areas. Wind speeds in the seas near the Gujarat and Sindh coast will be very high. 150+ Kmph.
PREDICTED PATH OF THE STORM

 Friday noon. Tropical depression touches the Saurashtra coast

 Saturday (June 11, 2011) morning. Depression weakens a little and moves along the coast

 Sunday (June 12, 2011) late night. Keila gains strength rapidly

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) noon. Keila hits Gwadar

Wednesday night (June 15, 2011) The end of Keila.

KEILA To Hit Saurashtra Coast Friday Morning; Pakistan To Be Affected Too

Latest predictions for severe tropical storm Keila say that it will touch the Saurashtra (Gujarat state, India) coast near Diu on Friday (June 10, 2011) morning. It will then move along the Saurashtra coast and pass the Pakistani coast. Towns which will bear the brunt of Keila will be Diu, Veraval, Porbandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra in India. Karachi (Saturday June 11, 2011 morning) in Pakistan and the port of Gwadar will be badly hit too. It will then move to Southern Iran and slowly dissipate (June 14, Tuesday).


LATEST KEILA UPDATES
(June 7, 2011. 07.40 GMT)

• All the ports on the coast of Saurashtra-Kutch (India) and Pakistan will have to face very strong winds. 120 Kmph+. That is the minimum. Diu, Veraval, Porbandar, Dwarka, Gandhidham, Kandla, Mundra in India. Karachi and Gwadar in Pakistan. 

• Bhavnagar and Diu will start receiving rain from Thursday (June 9, 2011) evening. All the coastal areas in India, Pakistan and Iran will receive heavy rains with very strong winds.

• Keila is going to skim the coast of Oman. Muscat will receive some rain. But the center of the storm will pass by from the sea itself. Northern Oman and UAR will get lots of rain.

The projected path of Keila will be.....


NOTE: 1 knot = 1.85 Kmph

 Friday morning. June 10. Keila hits Diu on the Saurashtra coast

 Friday evening. June 10, 2011

 Saturday (June 11, 2011) morning. Keila nudges Karachi awake

 Sunday. June 12. Morning

 Sunday evening. June 12, 2011

 Monday morning. June 13, 2011. Hello Iran.

 Tuesaday morning. End of Keila starts

Keila dissipates. Tuesday (June14) evening

UK Met Office Says Strong Tropical Storm To Hit Saurashtra

Here is the latest Cyclone warning issued by the UK MetOffice for the Arabian Sea


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.06.2011

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 16.4N  72.0E


  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 05.06.2011  16.4N  72.0E     WEAK

 00UTC 06.06.2011  17.4N  71.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 06.06.2011  17.5N  71.3E     WEAK     INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 07.06.2011  17.7N  70.1E   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.06.2011  18.2N  69.7E   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.06.2011  18.4N  69.2E   MODERATE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.06.2011  18.8N  69.2E    STRONG    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.06.2011  19.1N  69.4E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.06.2011  19.3N  69.7E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.06.2011  20.2N  70.4E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.06.2011  20.7N  70.5E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 11.06.2011  21.5N  70.1E   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

Tropical storm "Keila" to arise today near Kerala coast, will hit Saurashtra by Wednesday

There is bad news for folks living in the coastal areas of Saurashtra in western India. A big tropical storm is expected to rise in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast by today night. It will start off (as all big bad cyclones do) as a low pressure area. But by Monday it will gain strength and turn into a monster storm. 


Latest Updates on Expected Gujarat Cyclone Keila

• In a day an innocuous low pressure area will build off the Kerala coast

• By Monday evening (IST), it will start gaining strength and turn into a tropical storm. Wind speeds will be more than 75 kmph.

• It will slowly head northwards towards the Gujarat coastline, especially that of Saurashtra and Kutch. 

• It will hit the Saurashtra coast between Diu and Porbandar by Wednesday (June 8, 2011) night, Thursday morning. Wind speeds will be a staggering 120 Kmph +.

• The storm will move along the Saurashtra Kurch coast but will not enter Saurashtra proper. It will then move towards the sea.

• Even then almost all Saurashtra  will witness heavy winds and heavy rain. The coastal areas ( Veraval, Porbandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra) will bear the brunt of the storm.

(I Knot = 1.85 Kmph)