Arabian Sea Low Pressure Area To Form Today (June 20, 2015) Off Saurashtra Coast

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE FOR ARABIAN SEA LOW

It will form today off the coast of Saurashtra region. Where will it go?

Two scenarios.

FIRST: it will stay close to the Saurashtra coast and intensify into a possible depression on Monday, June 22, 2015. It will make landfall into the region on Tuesday, move through central Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and end up finally in West Bengal.

SECOND: it intensifies and move back into the Arabian Sea, goes quite near the coast of Oman, then turn back. It will make landfall into Kutch on June June 25, 2015 and move through western Rajasthan towards Delhi. Heavy rains likely in Kutch, Saurashtra, and Sindh from June 23rd onwards.

The upper air circulation (the low) extends up to 8 kilometers in the atmosphere.

The image below shows the current situation in Arabian Sea now (0300 UTC, June 20, 2015).

A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

Monsoon Update: Expected Arabian Sea Rain System May Hit Mumbai June 23, 2015

ARABIAN SEA LOW: MODELS GIVE COFUSING SIGNALS

The expected path of the upcoming Arabian Sea low has changed. Now it may go to Mumbai on June 23, 2015.

The low will start off as a circulation and organize iinto a low by Sunday near the Saurashtra coast off Dwarka.

Another model predicts it will remain a trough not a low pressure area.

Models presently agree it will move to the Indian west coast by June 23, 2015.

But one wonders. The forecast models are saying different things every day. Our guess is it could go anywhere. Sindh. Gujarat. Or Maharashtra.

But we can say two things with certainty.

One. The Arabian Sea is going to turn very stormy in the coming days.

Second. The expected system will be a big rain maker. Where ever it will go, we are looking at a deluge.

Monsoon is complex. Reputed sites like AccuWeather and Wunderground rarely predict right if it is going to rain in your city today or not.