A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

MONSOONS TO REV UP FROM JUNE 16, 2015

Update June 13, 2015

A DEPRESSION LIKELY IN BAY OF BENGAL IN A FEW DAYS

After the Arabian Sea turned stormy and gave birth to tropical cyclone Ashobaa it is the turn of Bay of Bengal.

There is a distinct possibility that the bay may spawn a low in the next 72 hours which may turn into a deep depression within a day or two after that.

If this happens the monsoons will become active again. Ashobaa had drained away some of its enegy.

Heavy stormy rainfall seems to be coming Andhra's way as the depression is likely to form near its coast.

Hard to be certain as the monsoons are not giving clear indications where they will energize from.

We had talked about that yesterday.

Presently it appears the Andhra coast will be the next center of attraction.
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Indications are the south west monsoons will become active again from June 16 onwards. The reason being the formation of two low pressure areas, one each in tthe Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

One of the lows will materialize near the Andhra coast and then move along the coast to Odisha and then enter West Bengal.

The Arabian Sea low may form around June 18. It may move into south Gujarat in a day or two after that.

In fact another low is expected in the Bay of Bengal on June 22, 2015. But ten days is a long time.