After Gujarat, Monsoon Will Shift To Uttar Pradesh. Heavy Rains By June 27, 2015

The next deluge spot in India after Gujarat is Uttar Pradesh. The reason being the Bay of Bengal low will collide with the remnants of the Arabian Sea low in the next 3 days. The result will be flooding.

The Bay of Bengal low is now in Banglasdesh. In the next two days it will move through West Bengal onto Bihar. The Arabian Sea rain system, which flooded Saurashtra is presently in northern Madhya Pradesh. In the next two days it will move towards eastern Uttar Pradesh. On June 27, June 2015, the two system will collide over the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border.

The result will be heavy rains in the region.

So by the 27th of June we can envisage good rainfall activity in the following areas. Northern Madhya pradesh and Uttar Pradesh due to the Arabian Sea system. Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh owing to the Bay of Bengal low pressure system.

The next big activity in monsoon 2015 will be a low pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal around July 5, 2015. This is expected to move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But this will be a weak system.

The reason? The expected massive typhoon that will form in early July, 2015 in the Western pacific and which will hit Hongkong, Macau and northern Vietnam.

There is a deep relationship between the storm activity in the north Indian Ocean and West Pacific. Especially with the strong prevailing El Nino the storm activity is rationed between the two oceans. One gets active then the other gets passive.

Since two typhoons are expected in early July in the Western Pacific, one can assume that there is going to be big lull in the Indian monsoons in the first half of July 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low is presently about to enter Bangladesh.

Arabian Sea depression to hit South Gujarat at Surat

Update: June 23, 2015, 1030 hours GMT

The European model has said depression 97A will move in a north easterly direction in the next 24 hours. Coastal Amreli district then onto South Gujarat.

The GFS in its latest data issued at 0600 GMT predicts a more northerly movement during next 24 hours. Right through Saurashtra on to north and central Gujarat.

Who will win?
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IMD confirms 97A will move through Diu, Amreli district and move to South Gujarat.

The Arabian Sea Deep Depression will make landfall at Diu and then move through coastal Amreli and Bhavnagar districts to South Gujarat at Surat in the next 24 hours.

YESTERDAY’S  DEPRESSION  OVER  NORTHEAST  AND  ADJOINING  EASTCENTRAL  ARABIAN  SEA MOVED  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS,  INTENSIFIED  INTO  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  AND  LAY CENTRED  AT  0300  UTC  OF  TODAY,  THE  23RD  JUNE  2015,  OVER  NORTHEAST  ARABIAN  SEA  OFF SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  LATITUDE  20.5°NORTH  AND  LONGITUDE  70.5°EAST,  ABOUT  50 KM  WEST-SOUTHWEST  OF  DIU.    IT  WOULD  MOVE  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS  AND  CROSS SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  DIU  AS  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  BY  TODAY,  THE    23RD  JUNE  2015 AFTERNOON  .   ACCORDING  TO  LATEST  SATELLITE  IMAGERY,  INTENSITY  OF  THE  SYSTEM  IS  T  2.0.  THE CONVECTIVE  CLOUD  MASS  IS  SHEARED  TO  THE  WEST  OF  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  LOWEST CLOUD TOP  TEMPERATURE  IS  -88.0°C.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN  LOW  AND  MEDIUM  CLOUDS  WITH EMBEDDED  INTENSE  TO  VERY  INTENSE  CONVECTION  OVER  ARABIAN  SEA  NORTH  OF LATITUDE  14.0°NORTH  TO  22.0°NORTH  AND  EAST  OF  LONGITUDE  62.0°EAST.  THE  ESTIMATED CENTRAL  PRESSURE  IS  989  HPA.  MAXIMUM  SURFACE  WIND  SPEED  IS  ABOUT  30  KNOTS GUSTING  TO  40  KNOTS  AROUND  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  SEA  CONDITION  IS  VERY  ROUGH AROUND THE  SYSTEM CENTRE  AND ALONG  AND  OFF  GUJARAT  COAST. 

DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, HIT SAURASHTRA TONIGHT

The latest GFS forecast data that is coming in says Arabian Sea deep depression 97A may rapidly intensify in the coming 12 hours, perhaps into a tropical cyclone and hit the Saurashtra Coast at Veraval today midnight. That is 0000 hours IST, June 23, 2015, Tuesday.

It is possible that wind speeds at impact will be 70-80 km/h, gusts upto 90 km/h.

The gale will be accompanied by torrential rains.

The deep depression/cyclone will swing North after making landfall and move into Kutch.

The most affected districts will be Gir Somnath, Porbandar, Junagadh, Rajkot, Morbi, and Kutch.

One wonders if the authorities are taking this possible threat seriously. The worry is if the GFS forecast turns true, there are just 14 hours before impact.

We are constantly monitoring what various computer forecasts models are saying and also the latest IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) updates.

Please keep in touch for breaking forecasts.

Arabian Sea Storm Intensity Forecast from Cyclocane. Only one model says it will not turn into a tropical storm.

Cyclone tracking site cyclocane.com says Arabian Sea depression 97A will be a tropical cyclone

A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY

MONSOONS TO REV UP FROM JUNE 16, 2015

Update June 13, 2015

A DEPRESSION LIKELY IN BAY OF BENGAL IN A FEW DAYS

After the Arabian Sea turned stormy and gave birth to tropical cyclone Ashobaa it is the turn of Bay of Bengal.

There is a distinct possibility that the bay may spawn a low in the next 72 hours which may turn into a deep depression within a day or two after that.

If this happens the monsoons will become active again. Ashobaa had drained away some of its enegy.

Heavy stormy rainfall seems to be coming Andhra's way as the depression is likely to form near its coast.

Hard to be certain as the monsoons are not giving clear indications where they will energize from.

We had talked about that yesterday.

Presently it appears the Andhra coast will be the next center of attraction.
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Indications are the south west monsoons will become active again from June 16 onwards. The reason being the formation of two low pressure areas, one each in tthe Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

One of the lows will materialize near the Andhra coast and then move along the coast to Odisha and then enter West Bengal.

The Arabian Sea low may form around June 18. It may move into south Gujarat in a day or two after that.

In fact another low is expected in the Bay of Bengal on June 22, 2015. But ten days is a long time.

Weakened Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa Will Enter Oman Tomorrow Night

Cyclone Ashobaa is weakening. It will enter northeastern Oman in the Al Sharqiyah Region near Masirah Island tomorrow late night. That is the night of June 11, 2015. The towns of Hayy and Dawwah will be most affected.

It will dissipate quickly and move inland into central Oman in the Al Dakhiliyah region bringing it some rains.

Sur will get heavy rains. Muscat will receive only a drizzle.

If the storm moves inland after dissipating as a low very heavy rains are expected in coastal areas around the town of Hayy.

It is also possible that the storm might make landfall in the morning of June 12, 2015.

Since the cyclone is weakening, only winds of 55-65 km/h will be felt in the coastal areas of the country. That is the area which will receive the most rains.

It is also not certain if the cyclone will make landfall into Oman at all. The reliable European computer forecast model ECMWF, predicts a demise mid sea near the coast of the country.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO OMAN. BUT THE JTWC IS BULLISH. IT EXPECTS WINDS OF 100 KM/H ON IMPACT. IT IS DOUBTFUL IF THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER OMAN AT ALL OR NOT.

Dismal Monsoon Rainfall Expected Till June 22, 2015

IMD's grim picture for monsoon 2015 seems to be coming true. Looks like the villain El Nino is going to spoil the rains in the Indian sub-continent, at least for the next one month, till June 22, 2015.

The CFS Model, the long range climate forecast model designed by NOAA in its predictions for the coming four weeks paints a grim picture of deficient rainfall, in almost all parts of India.

Overall the rains till June 22 are going to be below average in almost all areas of India, except for some pockets of North East, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.

Given below are rainfall forecast maps for the coming four weeks, starting from May 25, 2015.

Please note that the CFS forecasts are issued every day. What we say now is the basic trend that we have discerned after monitoring the data for the last one week. We shall keep you informed of future trends of the rainfall possibility as envisaged by the Climate Forecast Model.

Click here for CFS Monthly Forecasts (June to September 2015)

WEEK 1 (May 25 to June 1)

The worst affected will be coastal areas along the Arabian Sea. The rain deficiency will be as high as 4 inches in some areas.

MAY 25 TO JUNE 1: KERALA WILL HAVE RAINS 4-5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ONLY PARTS OF ASSAM, NORTH BENGAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH WILL HAVE SURPLUS PRECIPITATION.

WEEK 2: JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8

JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8: THE RAIN DEFICIENCY ON INDIAN WEST COAST MAY BE AS HIGH AS 6-7 INCHES. EVEN THE NORTH EASTERN STATES WILL RECEIVE RAINS 5-6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

JUNE 8 TO JUNE 15, 2015

JUNE 8 TO JUNE 15: THE HORROR STORY CONTINUES INTO THE THIRD WEEK. RAINS IN KERALA AND INDIAN WEST COASTAL AREAS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE BY ALMOST 10 INCHES. ONLY CERTAIN POCKETS IN KARNATAKA WILL HAVE SURPLUS RAINS (ABOUT 2 INCHES)

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 22, 2015

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 22: A LOW PRESSURE IN THE ARABIAN SEA WILL DUMP PRECIOUS COPIOUS RAIN INTO THE SEA. RAINS DEFICIENT IN INDIAN WEST COAST, ODISHA, ANDHRA AND WEST BENGAL. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS OF KARNATAKA, TAMIL NADU AND IN MANIPUR, TRIPURA, MEGHALAYA AND MIZORAM

CFS (Climate Forecast System) Predicts An Arabian Sea Cyclone in June 2015

CFS (Climate Forecast System) has been developed to give long range forecasts for two months and more by the US NOAA.

Perusing the forecast data by the CFS Model one sees a powerful cyclone developing in southern Arabian Sea in the first week of June 2015. The cyclone is expected to move towards the coast of Oman and move along it some few hundred kilometers away

By June 10, 2015, the cyclone will curve north-eastward and hit the coast of Saurashtra between Porbandar and Dwarka and move north into western Kachch and then into Pakistan's Sindh Province

Let us make one thing very clear. The CFS Model is not very reliable. But it does give useful indications. In fact even the reliable GFS and ECMWF forecasts beyond ten days should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

But the cyclone season in the north Indian Ocean is about to begin. The sea temperatures are already over the cut-off point of 26.5 degrees C. The temperature required to fuel a tropical cyclone.

In 2014, the North Indian Ocean had kick-started by Cyclone Mahasen that had formed in the first half of May and gone on to hit Bangladesh.

We will keep a close watch and give you latest updates on the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal this May-June, which is the time storms develop.