SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI NOT TO HIT JAPAN

Super Typhoon Atsani is a monster now throwing winds of 135 knots (250 km/h). In a couple of days it is is going to intensify even more. It will move threateningly towards Japan but veer  away back into the Pacific Ocean on August 25, 2015, Tuesday.

TYPHOON ATSANI IN THE WEST PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE AUGUST 20, 2015, 0300 HRS GMT. GONI IS SEEN ON THE LEFT

The tropical cyclone is presently 925 kilometers from the Japanese island of Iwo Jima. Sustained winds speeds are 250 km/h. The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) believes typhoons Atsani is not going to get any stronger.

We beg to differ.

The storm is going to intensify further in the coming days and tun into a super super typhoon by Sunday having a central minimum pressure of 900 millibars. Our guess is the wind speeds then will reach an astounding 300 km/h, making it one of the most powerful storms on record.

It is not going to hit central Japan near Tokyo. It will move dangerously close but it will turn away abruptly on August 15, 2015, Tuesday.

But the Japanese Island of Iwo Jima is going to be affected badly. Not surprising when a 250 km/h+ typhoon moves by.

Atsani is going to wreck the Pacific Ocean shipping lanes as it is going to meander around  for a week still a powerful storm. A nightmare for the cargo ships in the north Pacific Ocean.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON ATSANI BY THE JTWC. WE DIFFER. WE THINK TYPHOON ATSANI IS GOING TO BECOME EVEN MORE POWERFUL. AND IT WILL PASS CLOSER TO CENTRAL JAPAN THAN THE JTWC ESTIMATE

Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY

Imminent Arabian Sea 'Low' Will Propel Monsoons

On the monsoon front the news are disheartening. Monsoon 2015 has left top meteorological agencies perplexed and professional weather forecasters have gone into a shell.

Things may change soon. Forecast models predict a low pressure area forming in the east central Arabian Sea on around June 5-6, 2015. This low pressure area or depression (Some models also say may be a cyclone) will rejuvenate the monsoon rains.

Increased rainfall is expected in Kerala and Karnataka from June 3, 2015, which will further intensify with the formation of the aforementioned low. If that low does occur, the rains may reach Maharashtra coast within days after that.

It all depends on where the low decides to go. If it sticks close to the Indian west coast, then the rains will reach Mumbai by June 10. Otherwise the rains will go to Gujarat or Sindh (Some say even Oman). SEE XWF-WEATHER INDICATIONS

Looks like we have very wet stormy weather ahead after June 5, 2015. It all depends on the Arabian Sea 'low'.

Read Arabian Sea Storm Possibilities And Latest Updates
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RAINFALL FORECAST FOR INDIA TILL JUNE 5, 2015

In the next three days the rains will be active mainly in Tamil Nadu. Very heavy rainfall is forecast for the entire state in the next 48 hours.

After June 3, 2015, the rains will gradually move westwards towards Karnataka coast. The formation of a low pressure area off the coast on June 5, 2015 will lead to heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka from June 5, 2015. The rain will spread to southern Maharashtra coast and the entire west coast of Indian by June 6.

So we see a rejuvenation of monsoons from June 4.

THE MAP SHOWS TOTAL RAINFALL FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 6, 2015. THE MONSOONS WILL PICK UP IN A DAY OR TWO.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) Update: Will Hit Santa Ana In Luzon Sunday Night

Update: 1230 Hours GMT, May 9, 2015

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is only going to make a brief landfall at Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, the northern most tip of Luzon, Philippines on Sunday late evening (Local Time).

Presently the storm is whipping 150 kph winds gusts up to 180 kph. It is about 400 kilometers from Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines to where it is headed.

At landfall it will weaken a little. Winds will drop to 110 kph.

The adjoining islands of Palau, Batan and Babuyan will bear the brunt of the storm.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in these places. Cagayan Valley will see floods and there is extreme danger of landslides as torrential rains will fall there.

Taiwan is safe from typhoon Noul. It will pass a few hundred kilometers from the eastern coast of the country. Not much effect.

1130 GMT, MAY 9, 2015. LATEST IMAGE OF TYPHOON NOUL

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL DODONG BY JTWC ISSUED TODAY

Two Typhoons, Noul (Dodong) And Dolphin (Egay) In Western Pacific

TYPHOON DOLPHIN UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin (Egay) is going to turn into a very powerful storm in a few days. Guam is going to be affected. Latest forecasts say Philippines will be spared as Dolphin will swing away north before landfall. This is expected to happen on May 16, 2015. Anything can happen in five days. Philippines should keep its fingers crossed.

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 FLASH: The JTWC in its latest track and intensity forecast says Typhoon Noul is likely to pass northern tip of Luzon on May 10 with speeds of 120 knots. There are still 5 days to go and the path of Noul is slowly curving towards Philippines. And with each successive forecast the intensity of typhoon Noul is increasing. Bad news for the country.
Update - May 5, 2015

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THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC ON MAY 9, 2015. TYPHOON NOUL IS LEAVING PHILIPPINES WATERS WHILE TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS GROWING STRONGER

The Western Pacific Ocean is in overdrive. Even as tropical storm Noul is strengthening into a typhoon and moving towards Philippines, another typhoon Dolphin is brewing in the same waters.

Let us talk about Noul first. The storm is about 100 miles east of Yap Island and moving WNW. It is strengthening all the time. Our very conservative estimates say the sustained winds in the storm are 75 kph. In the next four days it will ponderously move in the same (WNW) direction. By May 10 it will be a few hundred kilometers away from the Luzon coast. By then it will have intensified into a 140 kph storm.

According to the latest forecasts by the JTWC issued at 0900 hours GMT today the typhoon will be throwing out sustained winds of 115 knots by May 9. A super typhoon has winds of 130 knots. Inching close.

Our prediction is typhoon Noul will not make landfall into Luzon, Philippines but veer away sharply and move north on May 10-11. Even then the flail-clouds of the powerful storm will bring heavy rains to northern Philippines on these days.

Predicting even further, we believe typhoon will not hit Taiwan nor the Japanese mainland. We expect the storm will swing north-east and miss Japan. But this we cannot say with surety at this stage.

Now coming to typhoon Dolphin. It is presently an innocuous low pressure area bobbing in the Pacific Ocean. On May 7, 2015, it will start intensifying and turn into typhoon Dolphin. Dolphin will be even more powerful than Noul. But fortunately for Philippines it is expected to swing northwards on May 10 and miss hitting the country.

Our predictions at this stage are based on what reliable global forecast models say. Things can change as tropical cyclones are inherently fickle by nature. We shall keep you informed with latest updates and monitor any changes in the path of the two typhoons.

Cyclone Bansi Moving Into Rodrigues Island

BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND: Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015

CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they  will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0430 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015

0300 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 16, 2015.. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI

LATEST POSITION OF CYCLONE BANSI NOW: Current location of storm: 18.25*South, 61.40*East. Current sustained wind speed: 145 kph, gusts up to 180 kph. Bansi is 270 kilometers NW of Rodrigues Island. Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge. 

We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015

1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI

THE JTWC EXPECTS CYCLONE BANSI TO BE A SUPER CYCLONE SOON: Bad news from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for folks in the Rodrigues Island. In its latest bulletin issued at 0900 Hours GMT, today (January 15, 2015), it has a scary prediction That Cyclone Bansi which had weakened greatly yesterday (Leading to the Local Met saying "No Cyclone") is intensifying very rapidly and is gonna become a Category 5 hurricane or a super Cyclone, which ever you like it. In a few hours, even as we write this. And that it is going to stay a super cyclone for another 3 days, till January 18, 2015.The JTWC says Bansi has an eye of 85 kilometers. Translate that as big, big trouble for Rodrigues Island. At its peak, the JTWC foretells, Bansi is gonna have howling winds of 270 kph, gusting up to 320 kph. Nature at its nastiest. Folks in Rodrigues: Please take all precautions and take care. We would like to add here that we do not support this prediction. We think the winds will be in the range of 100 kph to 140 kph. It depends on which quadrant of the cyclone passes through Rodrigues. Some are more windier than others. The nightmare prediction from JTWC should be taken with a pinch of salt.
1030 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

0900 HRS, GMT, JAN 15, 2015 JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE BANSI. JTWC BELIEVES BANSI IS GOING TO TURN INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.

We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015

CYCLONE BANSI CURRENT STATUS: Position: 18.34*South, 61.19*East. 278 kilometers WNW of Rorigues Island. Sustained Wind Speed: 120 kph, gusts 160 kph.
1130 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

THE WINDS in Mauritius have already started picking up. Not because Bansi is moving but because it is intensifying. The winds will continuously get worse as Bansi slowly approaches and starts intensifying at the same time.  The winds will be worst on January 14, 2015 (Wednesday) as the cyclone passes by. They will start tapering off from January 15. Reunion will get off lightly. Mauritius may get winds in excess of 100 kph. Gusting more.

1130 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: JAN 14-15, 2015. CYCLONE BANSI PASSES MAURITIUS

POSITION AT 1100 HRS GMT, JANUARY 11, 2015: 16.95*S, 54.34*E. About 600 kilometers NNE of Reunion. It has moved in a ENE (East-North-East) direction. See the LIVE Map

1100 HRS GMT, January 11, 2015

According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. One thing both the models agree on is that this cyclone is going to intensify very rapidly in the next 48 hours. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.

January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI.

January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT

NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it  TC '5S'. When will the Met  folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?

January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT

CYCLONE BANSI, 0900 HOURS GMT, JAN 11, 2015

JANUARY 11, 2015, 0600 HRS GMT, CYCLONE BANSI WATER VAPOR IMAGE

The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!). This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news. Mauritius and Rodrigues Island will be most affected. Especially Rodrigues.

January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT

Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015.

92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.

January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Storm 92S is intensifying. It's central pressure is now slipping below 1000 Mb. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.

January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT

The present position of Mozambique Channel depression (Future Chedza) is 16.75* S, 42.76*E. 500 kilometers SSE of Mozambique City. Winds: 45 kph in the areas north of the storm.

January 10, 2015,  1400 Hours GMT

The present position of Storm 92S (Future Bansi, SW Indian Ocean): 17.20 Degrees South, 53.29 Degrees East. About 500 kilometers north-west of Mauritius and Reunion. Wind speed is 45 kph.Winds in Mauritius now are about 30 kph. Reunion: 16 kph.

January 10, 2015, 1330 Hours, GMT

LATEST TRACK FORECAST ACCORDING TO METEO-FRANCE FOR UPCOMING CYCLONE BANSI

TRACK FORECAST FOR BANSI CYCLONE ACCORDING TO VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THE 'GEM' IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. OTHERS ARE THE NOAA'S GFS AND US NAVY'S NAVGEM

SATELLITE IMAGE OF 92S AT 0300 HRS, JANUARY 11, 2015

The European Model has bad news. According to latest forecasts issued, Cyclone Bansi is going to intensify very rapidly after forming. Even when it will be passing over Mascareignes it's central pressure will fall by an astounding 50 Mb in 48 hours! Some very rapid intensification here. Bad news for Mauritius. Later when it leaves Mascareignes, it's central pressure will fall to 907 Mb! Bansi is gonna be a very powerful storm. In the league of cyclones Hondo (2007-8), Edzani (2009-10) and Bruce (2013-14). They had central minimum pressures of 906, 910 and 912 Mb respectively. They had maximum sustained winds of 215, 220 and 230 kph respectively All these were SW Indian Ocean cyclones

January 10, 2015, 1100 Hours, GMT

SATELLITE WATER-VAPOR IMAGE OF 92S TAKEN AT 1200 HRS GMT, JAN 10, 2015

Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.

January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT

Tropical Storm CHEDZA will form on January 13, 2015 in the Mozambique Channel. In a day or two after that it will move into central Madagascar. It will not be a big storm.

January 10, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

Another tropical storm is coming to the Philippines. Around January 17, 2015. Typhoon Mekkhala will not be a very powerful storm; nothing like Hagupit. It will strike central Philippines. It might turn out to be even weaker; Just a depression. A big rain-maker.

January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The European Model predicts Bansi will affect Mauritius more than Reunion. When it passes over the Mascareignes it will not be very powerful. Once it moves into the Indian Ocean it will turn into a very big storm throwing winds of 200 kph. A diameter of about 1200 kilometers.

January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.

January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The NAVGEM Model has a scary prediction. That 'Bansi' is going to take 3-4 days to move past Rodrigues Island. Strengthening all the time. Please take this forecast coming from NAVGEM, with a large pinch of salt.

January 9, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

The Canadian Model predicts the cyclone Bansi will form very close to Mauritius on January 11, 2015. It forecasts gustier storm in Mauritius than the GFS.  The NAVGEM has the worst news. Storm will form on January 11 and Mascareignes (Worst affected: Rodrigues Island) will face 150+ kph winds. The US Navy Model goes onto say Bansi will turn later into a 936 Mb super cyclone.(Away from the Mascareignes).

January 9, 2015 0600 Hours GMT

GFS predicts a central pressure of 975 Mb. So-so storm. About 140 kph sustained winds. Special GFS says Bansi will intensify into a cyclone on January 13, after it starts leaving Mascareignes waters.

January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on January 13, 2015.

January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Latest forecasts say the storm will move through Rodrigues as it keeps intensifying. The effect on Mauritius and Reunion will be comparatively less. It will turn into a very big storm after it moves away south from Mascareignes.

January 8, 2015, 1200 Hours GMT

NAVGEM envisages Bansi turning into something close to a super cyclone. Thanks heavens it will intensify to a central pressure of 929 mb (Wow!) only after it leaves the Mascareignes far behind. Phew!

January 8, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

Latest reliable forecasts say the upcoming cyclone will be a bigger threat to Rodrigues than Mauritius and Reunion. The storm will begin to form in the next 48 hours.

January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

The Canadian Model says Bansi will form tomorrow (January 9, 2015) morning (Mauritius Time).  It  has a scary story for Philippines. A massive typhoon will hit the country on January 16, 2015. Though other major models say it will be just a depression hitting central Philippines.

January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

The US Navy's NAVGEM has a terrifying prediction. That Bansi will be a massive storm with central pressure of 956 mb and winds of 170+ kph. It will hit Rodrigues Island head-on.

January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

Another possibility that the present low NW of Mauritius moves east in the next 4-5 days and THEN intensify into a storm. The storm in the Mozambique Channel forms first around January 12, 2015. If this happens the Mozambique Channel storm will become 'Bansi' and the 'Mauritius' storm becomes Chedza. In this scenario Chedza will affect the Rodrigues Island more than Mauritius and Reunion.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.

January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT

Both the GFS and Special GFS foretell a tropical storm near Papua New Guinea in a day or two. The former says it will move south into the Pacific, the latter predicts it will hit Queensland on January 13, 2015. CMC and NAVGEM support the formation of the cyclone on January 9.

January 7, 2015, 0500 Hours, GMT

Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. In sharp contrast Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015. See the storm forming and grow. LIVE.

January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT

Philippines is for another either a wet depression or a tropical storm around January 16, 2015.

January 7, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

It is possible that the present low near Kimberley, NW Australia may not intensify into a cyclone but move inland just as a low pressure area. A rain-maker, nothing else. The NAVGEM, in contrast, says a big cyclone will form. The European model heartily agrees.

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The European Model (Followed by Meteo France) says a low will develop near Mauritius tomorrow which will intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi on January 11-12. The CMC is bullish on Bansi. Expects it to form on January 9. It envisages a powerful storm with 150 kph winds but the horror story (coming from CMC) should be taken with a pinch of salt. The NAVGEM foresees two cyclones forming in the next 4 days. Bansi in the Mozambique Channel day after tomorrow and Chedza near Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Whew!

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The latest GFS forecast hints at the cyclone in the SW Indian Ocean developing near the coast of SE Madagascar on January 12, 2015, and then moving in a SW direction, thus not affecting the Mascareignes.

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The Canadian model CMC has a horrifying prediction for the folks in the Mascareignes. It says the upcoming cyclone is going to be a large diameter storm. About 300-350 kilometres! Even worse follows. The storm is going to move over the area very slowly. That means real bad news.

January 6, 2015. 1200 Hours GMT 

Bay Of Bengal Storm: December 2014: Perhaps A Cyclone Is Coming.

Update: December 26, 2014

Seems like a cyclone is imminent in the Bay of Bengal. Earlier forecasts by leading weather models had said the system would at best be a deep depression. We too were sceptical about a cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal in mid winter. But latest forecasts say other wise. May be we are staring at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours. Climate change? Perhaps.

It is generally agreed by reliable forecast models that the system 95B that hovers presently near Sri Lanka will intensify on December 29-30 into a tropical cyclone. In the next few days the storm is going to go around in a circle. Go south first then curve east, then north then westwards towards the coast of Tamil Nadu. At that point on December 30, 2014, it will intensify into a cyclone. The central minimum pressure (Which is an indicator of how strong a storm is: Hurricane Wilma had a central pressure of 882 mb) will drop into the 990s from the 1002-1004 mb levels.

After that opinions differ. The GFS says it will  travel a few hundred kilometers from the Indian east coast and head to Bangladesh. The European model agrees more or less, only it says it will be a weaker storm. The US Navy's NAVGEM Model is the most bullish on 95B. It gives a central pressure of 993 and the strongest wind speeds. It says the cyclone will move in the Bay of Bengal and hit Andhra coast on December 31, 2014.

It seems Mother Earth wants to start the new year with a bang.

Whatever happens the expected tropical storm is not going to be in the league of Phailin, Hudhud or even Nilofar. One can hardly expect a super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in December. But it might throw out winds of around 80 kph or more. And of course it is going to be a rain-maker. Depends on how it goes. Sri Lanka is getting a deluge right now because of 95B.

In conclusion, we feel system 95B will turn into a tropical cyclone in the next three days, when it is near the coast of Tamil Nadu, but it will start weakening as it ascends the latitudes and experiences the colder waters of the Bay. The moot point is will the IMD christen the storm when it is at its strongest on December 29-30 or will 95B remain an unnamed "deep depression"?

A latest satellite image of 95B taken at 0500 hours GMT, December 26, 2014. (Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The latest track path forecast of Storm 95B. The yellow line is the path prediction by the Canadian GEM Model. The other two are the forecasts by GFS and US Navy's NAVGEM Models.

This chart predicts the intensity of Storm 95B. The forecast is by AVNO, an offshoot of the GFS Model. The expected wind speeds are given in Knots. I knot = 1.85 kilometers per hour (Kph). The chart says the system will turn into a cyclone after 72 hours when its winds will exceed 64 kph.

The IMD remains bearish on chances of a cyclone. It seems we will have to be satisfied with a "deep depression".

Rainfall Prediction Map: How much rain is Storm 95B (Ashobaa?) going to bring and where in the next 8 days?

LATEST CYCLONE '2S' UPDATES Storm Will Intensify Only When It Nears Mauritius

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

UPDATE: 23 NOVEMBER, 2014 (0300 AM GMT)

The storm has already formed. It lay 600 Kms ESE of Diego Garcia at  0000 Hrs, today (GMT). It is going to intensify slowly as it moves towards Mauritius but turn into a 100 Kph cyclone when it nears the islands on November 29. Another interesting thing about the storm is that it is not going to dissipate quickly. It is going to hover around Mauritius and Reunion Islands for many days, until it is destroyed by the westerlies. It will linger on for about 5-6 days even after reaching Mauritius. Continuous rainfall is expected in the islands for 5-6 days beginning November 28, 2014.

Bansi will remain a depression till it nears Mauritius on November 28-29. It will intensify into a cyclone on November 29.

BANSI EFFECT: MAURITIUS AND REUNION WILL WITNESS 100 MM OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

CYCLONE BANSI UPDATE: 22 NOVEMBER, 2014 (1200 HRS GMT)

The storm is going to be stronger than expected. When it nears the Mauritius coast it will have wind speeds of 75-95 Kph on November 28, 2014. And contrary to earlier predictions the storm will hit Mauritius head-on on November 29. It is to be seen whether it will weaken or not when it hits the island.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI ON NOVEMBER 28 HEADING TO MAURITIUS

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 22, 2014

NOAA calls it Invest 97 (SH972015). An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that weather forecasters think has potential of developing further.

Present forecasts say the low pressure area that may turn into Cyclone Bansi has already formed. It lay at latitude 7 degrees south, longitude 84.1 degrees east at 0000 hrs GMT, today about 1000 kms east of Diego Garcia. It's present wind speeds are about 30-40 Kph.

It will intensify slowly into a depression and move towards Mauritius, reaching it on November 29, 2014. The wind speeds then will be about 55-65 Kph. It will skim by Mauritius and move southwards. Rodrigues Island will be most affected.

Present position of the expected South Indian Ocean storm. November 22, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 21, 2014

Bansi will be weaker than expected. About 60-80 Kph. And all model forecasts now agree that Mauritius is safe. Bansi is not expected to affect either Mauritius or La Reunion Island. The storm will pass by these islands at a distance of a few hundred kilometers.

In two or three days the expected cyclone Bansi may be born as a low pressure area coming from Indonesia.

The storm may be coming earlier according to the latest forecasts. There is difference of opinion between the European and American model as to the intensity and track of the Cyclone Bansi.

The American model predicts the storm will be a stronger storm. It will reach speeds of 120 Kph on November 28, 2014. And it will move due south bypassing Mauritius and La Reunion Islands. It will dissipate on November 30 or December 1 after it will locks horns with the powerful westerlies. The storm is going to travel hundreds of kilometers in the Indian Ocean before it will die. Bansi will be a much larger storm than Adjali.

The European model, which I guess the Meteo France prediction will be based on, says the storm will hit Mauritius and La Reunion almost head-on on November 29, 2014. But by that time it will have weakened quite a lot. Winds of say 50-60 Kph. Even this model agrees that the low pressure that will transform into Cyclone Bansi will come from the waters of Indonesia. It predicts the storm will be born on Monday. November 24, 2014.

There is quite a difference in forecasts between different models in the track of the upcoming storm.. Let us see what the venerable JTWC says on Monday.

Cyclone NILOFAR Update: November 30, 2014, 0300 Hrs GMT: Cyclone Will Disintegrate Mid Sea By Tomorrow

Cyclone Nilofar will subside before making landfall.

The westerly winds will sound the death knell of Cyclone Nilofar. Presently it is about 700 kms from Naliya. It is quite strong now with 100 Kph to 125 Kph winds. But it is weakening rapidly by the hour. By Friday afternoon it will be history. Just a low pressure area that will bring some showers to Sindh in Pakistan and Kachchh (Also parts of Saurashtra} in India till Sunday (November 2, 2014].

Western Kachchh and Karachi will remain windy till Saturday along with some rainfall.

How much rain will Nilofar cause? From now till November 2, 2014

The 5:30 AM (IST] bulletin by the Indian Met.for #CycloneNilofar

The JTWC latest bulletin issued at 0300 Hrs, (GMT] October 30, 2014, says Nilofar will break up completely into low pressure area Saturday night before making landfall

Latest Update: Cyclone Nilofar: Is Strongest Now: Gusting At 230 Kph

Nilofar will make landfall here on November 1, 2014, early morning (IST)

Contrary to expectations, Cyclone Nilofar did not turn into a Category 4 Hurricane. It is at its strongest now. It is about 900 kms from Karachi and 400 SW of Masirah in Oman. It has average winds of about 195 Kph, gusting up to 230 Kph.

It has started curving now towards the Gujarat-Sindh border which it will hit on Saturday (November 1, 2014) early morning (IST and PST) at Koteshwar in Kachchh (India). It will hit land with winds of 80-90 Kph gusting up to 110 Kph. This what the JTWC predicts.

There is some disagreement between the JTWC and GFS about the cyclone.

GFS forecasts say Nilofar will hit Naliya (Gujarat) on Friday (October 31, 2014). That is a day earlier.

Either way, coastal Sindh is in for very strong winds and rains. As is northern Kachchh.

The rains will start from tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and will increase all the time.

Flooding will happen in Sindh. Heavy rains expected in NW Rajasthan (Jaisalmer, Bikaner). The rains will reach Haryana and some showers in Delhi too.

Nilofar Update: Tuesday: October 28, 2014: Cyclone Will Turn Into A Category 3 Storm Tomorrow

Cyclone Nilofar is a big storm. Make no mistake about it. No wonder the Gujarat government is on its toes. Tomorrow morning it will turn into a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 200 Kph gusting up to a massive 240 Kph.

Till Wednesday morning (GMT) it will move in a northerly direction. By the evening it will have started changing direction and making a curve towards Gujarat.

On November 1, 2014 (Saturday) it will make landfall at Narayan Sarovar in Kachchh, Gujarat. The winds then will be 85 Kph gusting up to 100 Kph. The JTWC forecast says Cyclone Nilofar will weaken by landfall. Small mercies for Gujarat.

But even winds of 80-100 Kph is nothing to sneeze at. Not to forget the torrential rainfall which will lash entire Kachchh for 24 hours.

The latest track path forecast for Cyclone NILOFAR according to the JTWC

Latest JTWC forecast: Nilofar Cyclone will hit Kachch Gujarat Friday morning

The JTWC in its latest bulletin (October 27, 2014, 8:30 AM IST) says Nilofar cyclone will enter Gujarat near Narayan Sarovar (Western Kutch) on early Friday (October 31, 2014) morning, Indian Standard Time.

There is some disagreement between this and what the GFS says. GFS says Nilofar will curve less and hit Sindh in Pakistan.

We will continue giving you the latest updates.

Cyclone Hudhud Update: 11:00 AM: 12/10/2014: The Eye Is Crossing Into Andhra Now

The eye of Cyclone Hudhud is crossing into the Andhra coast right now  (Near Vijayanagaram). The eye of the storm is the center of the storm, an area of diameter of 30 Kms. In the eye of the storm is a deceptive area of calm, with no winds, no rains; Lulling one to believe that the storm has past. But soon it starts all over again, as the other half of the cyclone starts crossing. More strong winds, heavy rains again.

Winds of 175 Kph will be experienced till 6:00 PM (IST) today evening (Sunday) in the Andhra districts of Srikakulam, Vijayanagaram and Visakhapatnam. In Orissa, Koraput will be hard hit.

According to the Indian Navy, the maximum winds felt at Visakhapatnam were around 200 Kph.

Expect another 6-8 hours of strong winds (lower than before, as the storm will start weakening) and heavy rains.

Winds of 150+ Kph Still expected till 6:00 PM (IST) in Visakhapatanm and nearby areas.

Cyclone Hudhud Update 8:30 AM,12/10/2014: WARNING! IN A FEW HOURS: 175-210 KPH WINDS TO HIT VISAKHAPATNAM

Cyclone Hudhud is just a few hours from making landfall. Ground Zero will be Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam coast. The winds will be 175 Kph, gusting up to 210 Kph.The devastation is going to be massive. Because these kinds of winds are going to howl on for about 12 hours.

A TV channel met some coastal residents near Vizag who were wide awake throughout the night. When asked they said they had never heard such winds before and they were frightened.

The good news is that the storm is weakening slightly. At 5:30 in the morning it was at its peak, throwing up winds of 200-250 Kph when it was a few kilometers away.

The Andhra districts of Srikaulam, Vijayanagaram and Visakhapatnam will bear the brunt of Hudhud's fury. So will Malkangiri district of Odisha.

#CycloneHudhud makes landfall Raw Video

 http://goo.gl/tLMGvX

Latest Cyclone Hudhud Update: Will Enter Visakhapatnam, Saturday Midnight, 11/10/2014 With 200 KPH Winds

Latest forecasts from the JTWC says that cyclone Hudhud will touch the Indian Andhra coast at midnight Saturday, October 11, 2014 with winds of 200 Kph, gusting up to 250 Kph.

The JTWC in its latest bulletin issued at 8:00 AM today says it is going to intensify rapidly and make landfall at Visakhapatnam on Sunday morning.

"FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IMPROVE, ALLOWING TC 03B TO STEADILY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR VISAKHAPATNAM."

There is no doubt that the storm is going to hit the Andhra coast at Visakhapatnam. Odisha can take a sigh of relief. But some districts of the state will experience the strong winds of the cyclone. Entire Odisha will receive heavy rains in the next three days.We have dealt with how and where the storm will  affect the most in an earlier article.

NDTV Video

CYCLONE HUDHUD UPDATE: How And Where Will It Affect India: Winds, Rainfall And Wave Surge

Latest forecasts say that Cyclone Hudhud is going to make landfall near Visakhapatnam on late Saturday evening. Though the winds will slightly less than feared earlier, they will be very strong. At time of impact the winds be around 190 Kph, gusting up to 230 Kph.

Another feature of this storm is that even after moving into India the winds will not subside suddenly. Even some districts of Chattisgarh will face winds of 60-80 Kph. Not to mention that heavy downpours.

Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring heavy rainfall to many parts of India. Odisha, Seemandhra, West Bengal, Chattisgarh, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

The worst affected (Wind, rainfall) districts will be as follows,

ANDHRA: East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam, Khammam
CHATTISGARH: Sukma, Dantewada, Bijapur, Bastar, Narayanpur.
ODISHA: Malkangiri, Koraput, Gajapati, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur

Waves Will Cause Sea To Enter Land For Kilometers

It happened during the 1999 super cyclone. It happened during Phailin. And it will happen within the next few days courtesy Cyclone Hudhud. Sea entering the coastal areas. Hudhud is going to whip up waves up to 12 meters along the coast at time of impact. So sea water will rush in inland, especially into low lying areas along the coast. Worst affected will be Visakhapatnam.

That is why the disaster authorities are evacuating people who live close to the coast.

Rainfall Forecast Map: Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring a lot rain to India (Map shows total precipitation till 17/10/2014)