Another Arabian Sea Storm By June 18, 2015?

Weather forecast models are indicating the formation of another storm in the Arabian Sea within a week, that is by June 18, 2015.

These models say the depression will form off the coast of Maharashtra on June 17, 2015. It is unclear whether it will intensify into a deep depression or a tropical storm.

The European computer model ECMWF hints at a tropical cyclone near the Gujarat coast on June 19, 2015.

It is too early to say anything with conviction. We can only say that computer models are hinting at another storm in a week in the Arabian Sea this June 2015.

WE HAVE A VALID REASON......

 We make the above prediction after looking at the 850 mb wind maps of the GFS and ECMWF of that forecast period.

 There is near similarity between the two. Only difference is the GFS predicts a low in Konkan south of Mumbai. The European model predicts the low developing further north.

 The strong monsoon current will extend from the African coast near Somalia.

 The first map below is the GFS forecast of June 21. The second is the ECMWF forecast of June 20, 2015.

 This system will reinforce monsoons in western and northwestern India.

GFS FORECAST MAP JUNE 21, 2015

THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST MAP SHOWING THE SITUATION ON JUNE 20, 2015

Expected Arabian Sea Tropical Storm (Ashobaa?): Ramifications For Indian Monsoons

Reliable international forecast models are predicting the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea within days. The initial low pressure area will form tomorrow in south east Arabian Sea tomorrow which will intensify into a cyclone (Ashobaa) or a deep depression on June 6, 2015.

Whatever form the storm takes, the question arises what influence will it have on the presently gloomy picture of the Indian monsoons 2015?

The answer mainly lies on the path/track of the storm. Gujarat? Pakistan? Or Oman (May be south-eastern Iran too).

Wherever the storm goes the region is going to get a deluge when we talk of rainfall (Disregarding the harm caused by the winds).

If it goes to Pakistan it is going to relieve greatly the water situation in Sindh and Balochistan. Of course Oman too would welcome rains.

If it turns towards Gujarat and then moves inland through Rajasthan and then onto Haryana and Delhi it will be like God smiling on the farmers of these dry areas. Storms like these dump inches of water in a day and would greatly relieve the agricultural woes of north western India.

If the storm does not come to India, it will suck up all the water vapor and energy of the monsoons and dump it some where else.

But who are we to decide? Nature and Mother Earth will do as she sees fit.

The  track of the impending storm will become clearer by June 6, 2015 when the accurate and venerable JTWC (And our own esteemed IMD) will come out with their predictions.

We wait in anticipation. A storm in a year expected to be a drought year would be most welcome.

Related: Latest Forecasts For Future Cyclone ASHOBAA

THE GATHERING STORM: SATELLITE IMAGE OF SOUTH ASIA (1200 HOURS GMT TODAY) SHOWS THE BIRTH OF A TROPICAL STORM

Imminent Arabian Sea 'Low' Will Propel Monsoons

On the monsoon front the news are disheartening. Monsoon 2015 has left top meteorological agencies perplexed and professional weather forecasters have gone into a shell.

Things may change soon. Forecast models predict a low pressure area forming in the east central Arabian Sea on around June 5-6, 2015. This low pressure area or depression (Some models also say may be a cyclone) will rejuvenate the monsoon rains.

Increased rainfall is expected in Kerala and Karnataka from June 3, 2015, which will further intensify with the formation of the aforementioned low. If that low does occur, the rains may reach Maharashtra coast within days after that.

It all depends on where the low decides to go. If it sticks close to the Indian west coast, then the rains will reach Mumbai by June 10. Otherwise the rains will go to Gujarat or Sindh (Some say even Oman). SEE XWF-WEATHER INDICATIONS

Looks like we have very wet stormy weather ahead after June 5, 2015. It all depends on the Arabian Sea 'low'.

Read Arabian Sea Storm Possibilities And Latest Updates
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RAINFALL FORECAST FOR INDIA TILL JUNE 5, 2015

In the next three days the rains will be active mainly in Tamil Nadu. Very heavy rainfall is forecast for the entire state in the next 48 hours.

After June 3, 2015, the rains will gradually move westwards towards Karnataka coast. The formation of a low pressure area off the coast on June 5, 2015 will lead to heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka from June 5, 2015. The rain will spread to southern Maharashtra coast and the entire west coast of Indian by June 6.

So we see a rejuvenation of monsoons from June 4.

THE MAP SHOWS TOTAL RAINFALL FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 6, 2015. THE MONSOONS WILL PICK UP IN A DAY OR TWO.