Heavy Rains Likely In Andhra, Telangana, Rayalseema In Coming Days

JUNE 3, 2016

As the monsoons are expected to hit Kerala in the next few days, the engine that will pull the rains into southern and eastern India is an upper air cyclonic circulation that will move over Andhra Pradesh on June 4, 2016.

The system will form over the state tomorrow, then  meander over Telangana, Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh till June 8-9. It will then move back over Visakhapatnam area and intensify.

It is expected to move back into the Bay of Bengal on June 11. It may slam into the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 12-13 after intensifying into a depression. Maybe even a tropical cyclone.

The south west monsoon will take awhile to reach western India. In the absence of any low/cyclonic circulations things will be relatively quieter on the western coast of India. Though rainfall activity will rise gradually. Indications are things will get hot, rather wet, around June 10 as a massive cluster of thunderstorms will form in the Arabian Sea off Konkan coast.

The satellite image shows the emerging circulation over Andhra Pradesh 

December 31, 2014: XWF-WEATHER Forecast Summary

Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal is in its death throes. Within the next 36 hours it will dissipate. But weather will be overcast and windy in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh till then. Some showers expected in these areas.

Tropical Storm Jangmi has weakened into a depression as it heads to Palawan. For the next few days it will move towards southern Thailand (And northern Malaysia) and bring rains there. Just that. Rains.

Australia is staring at a big cyclone in early January, 2015. North and Western coasts of the country. Cyclone Lam is imminent.

In south west Indian Ocean two tropical cyclones seem likely. First will affect southern Madagascar. The second will hit Mauritius and La Reunion around January 12, 2015.

No Cyclone In Bay of Bengal: Heavy Rains In Northern Tamil Nadu On Novemebr 14, 2014

We recently ruled out the possibility of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal based on the GFS model. This model said yesterday that only a low pressure area will form which will bring heavy rains to Myanmar around November 8, 2014.

Surprisingly the Canadian CMC forecast says a massive cyclone will hit the Odisha coast on November 7, 2014. Latest CMC forecasts say that the low pressure will head towards Myanmar coast strengthen into a cyclone and then swing back and hit Odisha on November 11. All very elaborate and long-winded.

The reliable European model ECMWF predicts a depression that will bring rains to Odisha around November 10, 2014.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2014, 10 AM [IST]: CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL FORM ON NOVEMBER 10 EAST OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND HIT ANDHRA COAST AT VISAKHAPATNAM ON NOVEMBER 12 NIGHT

Read More>>>>>

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Confusing situation. We can only wait and watch. We would bet on what the GFS says. We can be sure of a cyclone when the ever-reliable GFS confirms it. Right now all it says is a low pressure area going into Myanmar. Personally, we think the chances of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal appear are slim. Typhoon Nuri sucked off all the energy from the Bay of Bengal.

It is quite definite now that the likelihood of a storm in the Bay of Bengal this year is little. The much
vaunted low pressure area that is hovering in the Bay will move to Myanmar on November 9. It will make landfall as a low pressure area. Lots of rain in the country, but no cyclone.

Another low pressure area will cross over into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand immediately after the earlier area goes to Myanmar. This system will traverse the Bay of Bengal briskly [Turn into, perhaps, a depression] bringing heavy rains to northern Tamil Nadu on November 13-14.

In short, no cyclone.

 The CMC predicts a cyclone on Nov 7

 The ECMWF says a depression on Nov 10

The GFS predicts a low pressure (or a depression] on Nov 11

A video about Typhoon Nuri and a possible storm in the Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Ashobaa Update Nov 2, 2014: Target Odisha-Andhra Border Coast: November 9: 2014

LATEST UPDATE: NOVEMBER 2, 4 PM [IST]: LATEST GFS  FORECAST SAY THE EXPECTED STORM WILL BE STILL BORN. IT WILL REMAIN JUST A LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS MYANMAR. WE SHALL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF CYCLONE ASHOBAA

The little expected cyclone Ashobaa  in the Bay of Bengal seems to have changed its mind. Now it wants to enter India at the Andhra-Odisha border areas near Srikakulam on November 9, 2014 morning [IST].

As we have said earlier this storm will be a smaller storm. Winds of 60-80 Kph. There is still a week to go. Who knows Ashobaa might be still-born. Or it might turn out something bigger.

Keep coming to the site for latest updates.

CYCLONE HUDHUD UPDATE: How And Where Will It Affect India: Winds, Rainfall And Wave Surge

Latest forecasts say that Cyclone Hudhud is going to make landfall near Visakhapatnam on late Saturday evening. Though the winds will slightly less than feared earlier, they will be very strong. At time of impact the winds be around 190 Kph, gusting up to 230 Kph.

Another feature of this storm is that even after moving into India the winds will not subside suddenly. Even some districts of Chattisgarh will face winds of 60-80 Kph. Not to mention that heavy downpours.

Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring heavy rainfall to many parts of India. Odisha, Seemandhra, West Bengal, Chattisgarh, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

The worst affected (Wind, rainfall) districts will be as follows,

ANDHRA: East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam, Khammam
CHATTISGARH: Sukma, Dantewada, Bijapur, Bastar, Narayanpur.
ODISHA: Malkangiri, Koraput, Gajapati, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur

Waves Will Cause Sea To Enter Land For Kilometers

It happened during the 1999 super cyclone. It happened during Phailin. And it will happen within the next few days courtesy Cyclone Hudhud. Sea entering the coastal areas. Hudhud is going to whip up waves up to 12 meters along the coast at time of impact. So sea water will rush in inland, especially into low lying areas along the coast. Worst affected will be Visakhapatnam.

That is why the disaster authorities are evacuating people who live close to the coast.

Rainfall Forecast Map: Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring a lot rain to India (Map shows total precipitation till 17/10/2014)

Cyclone HUDHUD UPDATE: Vital Misconceptions In Media: It is going to be Northern Andhra (Vizag) NOT Odisha

WE would like to point out some dangerous misconceptions that the media is spreading. Not only Indian media but the international media too. About Cyclone Hudhud.

FIRST: Many media sites are saying (including BBC) that cyclone Hudhud is going to strike the  Odisha coast at Gopal-at-Sea on October 12, 2014. This is wrong. The JTWC (Their forecasts are always accurate) says the storm is going to hit the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam AND NOT Odisha. The distance between Gopal-at-Sea and Visakhapatnam is about 300 Kilometers. In disaster planning and preparedness this can make a hell of a difference.


SECOND: The BBC says winds, when the storm makes landfall, will be about 175 Kph. The JTWC in contrast (We agree with them) in its latest bulletin says the winds when Hudhud makes landfall on Saturday evening is going to be 220 Kph , GUSTING UP TO 260 kph. BBC bases its forecasts on Met Office (UK). Now the JTWC predictions are any day more trustworthy than that of the Met Office.

THIRD: Most media, including the BBC and IMD say that the cyclone is going to make landfall on Sunday (October 12, 2014) morning. The JTWC says the storm will hit the Andhra coast on Saturday evening. Just 50 hours left.

We think the confusion should be cleared at the earliest. The Andhra and Chattisgarh (It is going to see very heavy rains) governments should spring into action at the earliest (Just as the Odisha government is at maximum alert).

The danger is to Northern Andhra and Chattisgarh is as much as it is to Odisha (if not more).

People, please wake up. There are just 48 hours left.

CYCLONE HUDHUD LATEST UPDATE: A MONSTER, A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE: VIZAG TO SEE 240 KPH WINDS SATURDAY EVE

Satellite image Of Cyclone HUDHUD taken today (9/10/2014) at 5:30 AM (IST)

Cyclone Hudhud is already whipping winds of 80 Kph. And it is going to rapidly  intensify further. in the next few hours. It is now 700 Kms from Visakhapatnam.

We had said that Hudhud would be no Vongfong. We were wrong. This storm will turn out to be a monster. With winds when it hits Visakhapatnam on Saturday late evening will be over 200 Kph. The IMD will call it a "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm". According to the Saffir-Simpson Scale Hudhud will be a Category 4 storm.

Cyclone Hudhud (According to predictions now) will be just short of a Super Cyclone. Hudhud is going to be as bad (If not worse than) as Phailin.

Ground Zero will be the towns of ELAMANCHILI and ANAKAPALLE just south of Vizag

When it hits the Indian shores near Visakhapatnam on Saturday evening (Local Time) the winds will be 215 Kph, gusting up to a whopping 260 Kph.

A word of advice to folks living on the Andhra-Orissa border coast. Run. And now. The storm is going to come on Saturday evening (October 11, 2014).

Latest Forecast Track Path of Cyclone Hudhud (9/10/2014)

NASA image of Ground Zero. This where Cyclone Hudhud is going to come in two days

Expected Path-Track of Cyclone Hudhud

Cyclone HUDHUD: Latest Videos

We will keep adding latest videos on this page

 http://xtremeweatherforecast.blogspot.in/2014/10/cyclone-hudhud-latest-videos.html

 Keep in touch.

Cyclone Hudhud. Visakhapatnam (India). October 12, 2014

Cyclone HUDHUD Update: Will Grow Into A Full Blown Cyclone On Thursday (8 October, 2014) Afternoon: Target: DHARMAVARAM (AP)

Satellite Infra-red Image of Tropical Depression 3B (Cyclone Hudhud) taken today morning at 04300 hours (IST)

The present Tropical Depression 3B is now crossing the central Andaman Island. By tomorrow afternoon (Thursday, October 9, 2014) IST, it will have strengthened into Cyclone Hudhud with winds in excess of 85 kph.

Right now the storm is drenching "Kaal Paani" with winds of about 55-60 kph. It will intensify further in the coming 30 hours. It will then start moving in  a NW direction.

When it approaches the Orissa coast on Friday evening, it will suddenly intensify further and grow into a bigger storm. Winds of about 120 kph. It will enter the Odisha coast at Gopal-at-Sea (Berhampur) on the night of Saturday (11 October, 2014).

Let me make one thing clear. Hudhud is not going to be another 1999 super cyclone. Nor will it be a Katrina or Vongfong. But it is going to be a significant storm.

The Orissa government has rightly geared into action from now. The Andhra government too should be prepared as the northern districts of the state are going to be affected on Saturday night-Sunday afternoon.

The Andhra government should start preparations on a war footing as there are chances that Ground Zero might shift from Gopal-at-Sea to Visakhapatnam.

NOAA forecasts warn that when Hudhud makes landfall at DHARMAVARAM (Andhra pradesh) between Gopal-at-Sea and Visakhapatnam the wind speeds will be 150 kph. The storm is going to rapidly intensify before hitting the Indian coast on Saturday night.

Cyclone Hudhud Will Hit Orissa Coast At Gopalpur-At-Sea (Berhampur) On October 11, 2014

Satellite Image of Tropical depression 19B (Future Cyclone Hudhud) taken at 8:30 PM (IST)

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE: OCTOBER 7, 2014: 9:30 PM IST

Cyclone Hudhud is going to form soon. It is called Tropical depression 19B presently. Contrary to earlier expectations it will initially be a weak storm. It is only when it nears the Andhra-Orisaa border coast (Gopalpur-at-Sea, Berhampur) that it will intensify rapidly and turn into a big cyclone. The landfall is expected to be on October 11-12, 2014.

Projected Path and Intensity of Cyclone According To Met Office

 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99B        ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N  94.6E



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2014  11.4N  94.6E     WEAK

 12UTC 07.10.2014  11.9N  93.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.10.2014  12.7N  92.4E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2014  13.3N  91.0E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.10.2014  14.1N  89.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2014  14.9N  89.0E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2014  15.7N  88.1E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2014  16.8N  87.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2014  17.5N  86.4E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 11.10.2014  18.1N  84.8E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2014  18.1N  83.2E    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.10.2014  18.7N  81.6E   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 13.10.2014  19.6N  80.1E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

JTWC Bulletin On Cyclone Hudhud: 7:00 PM October 7, 2014

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

WE PREDICTED THAT.... Heavy rains lash ODISHA

We had foretold way back on May 11, 2014 that heavy rains would lash Odisha on May 26, 2014. It has happened. Here is a news item in the New Indian Express....

Heavy Rains Lash Odisha; Flood Alert in 6 Districts By Express News Service
Published: 26th May 2014 09:32 AM
Last Updated: 26th May 2014 09:32 AM

BHUBANESWAR: The Odisha Government issued heavy rain and flood alert for six coastal districts after the low pressure-induced showers lashed many parts of the State on Sunday. The Special Relief Commissioner’s (SRC) office asked Collectors of Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Keonjhar and Dhenkanal to remain alert for flash flood. The alert came after the low pressure off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast triggered heavy rains across several coastal, central and western districts. Balasore received at least 100 mm rain since morning, while Bhubaneswar reported over 92 mm rain during the day. Cuttack (72 mm), Chandbali (53 mm), Puri (58 mm) and Gopalpur (54 mm) also received good showers. Other districts such as Angul (24 mm), Dhenkanal (47 mm) and Mayurbhanj (15 mm) as well as western districts, including Jharsuguda, also received showers.
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From Deccan Herald
Heavy rain brings respite from heat in Odisha 
Bhubaneswar, May 25, 2014

Heavy rain under the impact of a low pressure formed in the Bay of Bengal, lashed many parts of Odisha including Bhubaneswar on Sunday, bringing in the much-awaited relief to the people reeling under intense heat wave for the last several days. The rainfall will continue for the next two days.