SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE '2S' Update: NOVEMBER 29, 2014: 500 Kms From Mauritius: Will Intensify Into A 75-90 Kmph Storm Tonight

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

CYCLONE '2S' UPDATE: NOVEMBER 29, 2014

The cyclone is 500 Kms NE of Mauritius now. (0200 Hrs GMT). Wind speed is 62 Kmph. Tonight (Mauritius time) it will intensify to winds of 75-90 Kmph. It will change direction and move between Mauritius and Rodigues Island.

The good news is that since the cyclone will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island the wind impact on these two island will be less. Tomorrow early morning Mauritius will have winds of 45-55 Kmph. Rodigues will be harder hit. Winds of 55 Kmph gusts up to 60 Kmph.

Compared to Mauritius, Rodigues will experience heavier rainfall.

It is unfortunate that the MMS is not calling the cyclone a cyclone just because of irrelevant technicalities. The JTWC has name it a cyclone, the MMS should follow suit, so that the people understand the gravity of the storm.

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YESTERDAY

NOAA has declared the storm a "Topical Cyclone Two". According to its observations the storm had wind speed of 65+ Kmph at 1200 Hrs GMT today. 

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28. 2014

The depression is 550 Kms North-East of Mauritius now. 0445 Hours GMT. Wind speeds of 55 Kmph. A deep depression is what met guys call it. Just a step away from a cyclone. Forecasts say it will intensify in a few hours. It will throw winds up to 70-80 Kmph. Technically it should be named a cyclone (Bansi) then. But if the MMS folks are as stingy as the Indian Met guys in naming storms, it will not be named.

By the time it passes Mauritius (It will pass from the east  about 50-100 Kms) on Sunday late evening it will be weakened to a depression. Rodrigues Island will face stronger winds and heavier rainfall than Mauritius as the storm will pass right through the island. Mauritius will have intermittent showers till Tuesday. Rodrigues will see heavy precipitation.

STORM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 0600 HRS GMT TODAY. WINDS OF 45-75 KMPH

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SPECIAL UPDATE November 27

The JTWC has taken cognizance of the storm. it says the possibility of it turning into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression lies about 850 kms NE of Mauritius. Winds are 55 kmph. Location: 13.2 S, 66.2 E at 0000 hours GMT today. There is no significant change as to its future course from the earlier update.

It's location now is 13.58 S, 64.91 E (0400 Hrs GMT). That is about 800 kms NE of Mauritius.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0300 HOURS (GMT)

SPECIAL UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Latest model forecasts indicate that the depression that lies about 1000 NE of Mauritius is going to intensify more than expected. It is already throwing winds of 55 kmph to 65 knph. By Friday this will rise to 75-85 kmph. The threshold for the Met guys at Mauritius is 65 kmph to name it "Bansi". Let us see when they do the christening. My suspicion is even the JTWC folks will jump in soon.

The storm will not intensify very much. It will weaken by the time its winds start lashing Mauritius by Friday night. Anyway there is going to be a lot of rainfall in the island till December 2, 2014. And winds of course. There may be wind gusts of 65 kmph.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The depression lay at Latitude 12 South, longitude 68.9 East at 0000 Hrs, GMT today. It has average winds of 55 Kmph gusting up to 65 Kmph. In the next few days it will move towards Mauritius. Latest forecasts say it is unlikely to intensify any further. Looks like the Met guys at MMC are not going to christen it "Bansi". The system will reach Mauritius shores on Saturday.

IR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT , NOV 26, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

There is a large swirling mass of clouds in the Indian Ocean below Diego Garcia Islands. Only the environment is not very favourable for it to transform into a big storm. Nevertheless, the system sustains. Presently it lies at 9.9 degrees south latitude,  70.3 degrees east longitude with winds of 45 Kmph gusting up to 55 Kmph. It is a depression now and lies 400 Kms SSW of the British Indian Ocean islands. It has moved westward in the last 24 hours. . Over the next few days it will move SW towards Mauritius. It will rapidly intensify into a 75-90 Kmph cyclone on November 30, near Mauritius. Very heavy rains are likely in Mauritius in November end. About 10 inches.

Nov 25, 0600 GMT:  has remained more or less stationary. Wind speeds have reached 55 Kmph. Location: Latitude: 10.3 S, Longitude: 70.3 E

An Infra-Red Image of the system taken today at 0400 hours GMT

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LATEST UPDATE NOV 24, 2014

CYCLONE "BANSI" WILL HIT MAURITIUS ON NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 1, 2014 WITH 80-100 KMPH WINDS

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: DECEMBER 1, 2014: MAURITIUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER DEPRESSION WHILE CYCLONE BANSI IS APPROACHING.

The Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka extending till Indonesia is in ferment. Very unstable atmosphere. Out of this turbulence three storms are going to emerge. One will move to south India and Sri Lanka and give these areas a thorough drenching. The other two will move into southern Indian Ocean.

We have been talking of cyclone Bansi for a while now. The low pressure has already formed. It lies 250 Kms SSE of British Indian Ocean Islands throwing up winds of 35 Kmph.

This system will intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours and move towards Mauritius. Chances are the depression will not intensify into cyclone strength. It will affect Mauritius and Reunion Islands on November 28, 2014. Winds will be 50-60 Kmph. A borderline case between a cyclone and a depression.

WHAT IS NOTABLE is another system will follow this depression in its wake. That will be cyclone Bansi. A stronger storm, it will reach cyclone status on November 29, the time the earlier depression will be drenching Mauritius. Present indications are Cyclone Bansi will hit Mauritius, perhaps in early December.

SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE

Cyclone Coming In The Arabian Sea Next Week?

Generally November goes and we think the cyclone season is over in the North Indian Ocean. But no! A big cyclone may be brewing in the Arabian Sea if latest predictions are to be believed by weather computer models.

When we saw the forecast graphs the first time, we did not believe it. A cyclone in December in the Arabian Sea? Naaah! But the fact remains a cyclone may be coming in the coming week. Oman. Pakistan. Gujarat. Wake up!

The storm (Ashobaa) will be born as a low pressure off the Indian coast at Kerala on November 25. It will drift towards the Gulf of Aden in the following days and slowly intensify. By November 29 it will be a depression with 50 Kph winds.Around November 30 it will reach maturity. It will cross the 64 Kph threshold and become a cyclone. It will be located about 1200 Kms east of the Horn of Africa.

After that it will turn direction and curve towards Oman.It will move past Oman December 1-2. It will be strongest then with winds of 100-120 Kph. Present forecasts say it will strike Kachcch (Gujarat)- Sindh area on  3rd December, 2014.

Let us make some things clear. Firstly a cyclone in the Arabian Sea in late-November-early December is rare. We feel the formation of the storm is in doubt. We have written this forecast only after repeated model forecasts confirmed the storm. To be sure we have to wait a few days more.

In conclusion, a storm is going to form off the Kerala coast around November 27-28. No doubt about that. The question is will it move westwards towards the Gulf of Aden or swing north towards Oman and intensify into a big storm?

LATEST CYCLONE '2S' UPDATES Storm Will Intensify Only When It Nears Mauritius

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

UPDATE: 23 NOVEMBER, 2014 (0300 AM GMT)

The storm has already formed. It lay 600 Kms ESE of Diego Garcia at  0000 Hrs, today (GMT). It is going to intensify slowly as it moves towards Mauritius but turn into a 100 Kph cyclone when it nears the islands on November 29. Another interesting thing about the storm is that it is not going to dissipate quickly. It is going to hover around Mauritius and Reunion Islands for many days, until it is destroyed by the westerlies. It will linger on for about 5-6 days even after reaching Mauritius. Continuous rainfall is expected in the islands for 5-6 days beginning November 28, 2014.

Bansi will remain a depression till it nears Mauritius on November 28-29. It will intensify into a cyclone on November 29.

BANSI EFFECT: MAURITIUS AND REUNION WILL WITNESS 100 MM OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

CYCLONE BANSI UPDATE: 22 NOVEMBER, 2014 (1200 HRS GMT)

The storm is going to be stronger than expected. When it nears the Mauritius coast it will have wind speeds of 75-95 Kph on November 28, 2014. And contrary to earlier predictions the storm will hit Mauritius head-on on November 29. It is to be seen whether it will weaken or not when it hits the island.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI ON NOVEMBER 28 HEADING TO MAURITIUS

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 22, 2014

NOAA calls it Invest 97 (SH972015). An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that weather forecasters think has potential of developing further.

Present forecasts say the low pressure area that may turn into Cyclone Bansi has already formed. It lay at latitude 7 degrees south, longitude 84.1 degrees east at 0000 hrs GMT, today about 1000 kms east of Diego Garcia. It's present wind speeds are about 30-40 Kph.

It will intensify slowly into a depression and move towards Mauritius, reaching it on November 29, 2014. The wind speeds then will be about 55-65 Kph. It will skim by Mauritius and move southwards. Rodrigues Island will be most affected.

Present position of the expected South Indian Ocean storm. November 22, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 21, 2014

Bansi will be weaker than expected. About 60-80 Kph. And all model forecasts now agree that Mauritius is safe. Bansi is not expected to affect either Mauritius or La Reunion Island. The storm will pass by these islands at a distance of a few hundred kilometers.

In two or three days the expected cyclone Bansi may be born as a low pressure area coming from Indonesia.

The storm may be coming earlier according to the latest forecasts. There is difference of opinion between the European and American model as to the intensity and track of the Cyclone Bansi.

The American model predicts the storm will be a stronger storm. It will reach speeds of 120 Kph on November 28, 2014. And it will move due south bypassing Mauritius and La Reunion Islands. It will dissipate on November 30 or December 1 after it will locks horns with the powerful westerlies. The storm is going to travel hundreds of kilometers in the Indian Ocean before it will die. Bansi will be a much larger storm than Adjali.

The European model, which I guess the Meteo France prediction will be based on, says the storm will hit Mauritius and La Reunion almost head-on on November 29, 2014. But by that time it will have weakened quite a lot. Winds of say 50-60 Kph. Even this model agrees that the low pressure that will transform into Cyclone Bansi will come from the waters of Indonesia. It predicts the storm will be born on Monday. November 24, 2014.

There is quite a difference in forecasts between different models in the track of the upcoming storm.. Let us see what the venerable JTWC says on Monday.

The US Snow Storm Will Ease On November 23

TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAP: THE US WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY, NOV 22, 2014

The Arctic Blast that has hit the United States is not going to go away in a day or two. It is expected to continue till November 23. Only after Saturday will the weather start clearing up rapidly. The temperature which has hit record lows will creep up again.

Florida is seeing sub-zero temperature now. That will end in another 24 hours. But the northern parts of the country will need another 4 days before it rids of the storm. By Sunday even the areas near the Great Lakes will see 4-5 degrees Centigrade.

But around November 26 another cold front will send the mercury plunging again in North East US. That phase will last for another 2-3 days. The end of the month will see much warmer weather.

But Colorado, Utah, Montana, Idaho and Wyoming will be sub-zero in the coming 7 days. Weather in these states will warm up only by the end of the month.

Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone ADJALI To Form November 15, 2014 Near Diego Garcia

It is the southern hemisphere which is going to throw up storms now. The southern Indian ocean will start off with cyclone ADJALI. It will form near the Diego Garcia Islands and intensify and travel in a SSW direction. By the time it passes the Rodrigues island of Mauritius it will start weakening. But Mauritius will have winds and rains on November 22, 2014.

Adjali will be no Nuri. But it will be a significant tropical storm on November 17-18 throwing up winds of 100+ Kph. The cluster of islands near Madagascar (Including Mauritius) are lucky that the storm will weaken by the time it reaches them.

Most affected will be Rodrigues Islands. Adjali is going move past it on November 21, Gale and heavy rains are expected on that tourist destination. If you are thinking of a Mauritius vacation around November 21-23, my advice is, postpone it.

Latest updates indicate there are two "Invest" in the southern Indian ocean now. These are low pressure area which meteorologists watch closely and think may turn into a bigger storm.

94S:This is the one we feel will turn into cyclone Adjali.

95S: This has formed further SW near Mauritius.

We shall keenly watch developments and keep you in formed.

The two "Invests" in the southern Indian ocean today

Cyclone Adjali as seen on November 19-20

Invest 94S: Future storm ADJALI as seen on November 14, 2014

Two Big Extra-Tropical Cyclones Coming: One To Japan On November 25, Another To Canada On November 21, 2014

The tropical cyclone season may be fading in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans (Southern hemisphere aside) but mid-latitude storms are coming. And they are going to be big, bad and powerful. One will hit Japan on November 25, another will come from the Pacific and slam into British Columbia on November 21, 2014.

Generally extra-tropical cyclones are not so powerful (There are exceptions) as their tropical cousins, but the one likely to hit Canada is going to be particularly nasty with a minimum pressure of 960-970 mb.

We deal with the Japan storm first. It will come as a low pressure from China, move over Korea, strengthening all the time. As it approaches Japan it will intensify further, the pressure being about 998 mb. Not a very big storm but will bring strong winds and rains to Japan on November 25, 2014.

XWF Map: November 25, 2014: The Mid-latitude storm approaches Japan. Heavy rains and strong winds are expected around then

THE BRITISH COLUMBIA STORM EXPECTED ON NOVEMBER 21, 2014

The other storm is going to be bigger. It will start off as an innocuous low pressure in the Pacific and then move towards the Bay of Alaska strengthening all the time. Make no mistake, this guy is going to be big and powerful. A central pressure of 970 mb. Ominous. It is going to cross the Canadian coast on November 21, 2014. British Columbia (And southern Alaska) are in for gale and heavy precipitation in a week.

XWF Map: The storm moving towards Canada. November 21, 2014.

 November 21, 2014. Alaska and western Canada are in trouble as a 960 mb storm is going to hit them

November 21, 2014: Hurricane like winds are going to strike southern Alaskan coast and British Columbia

The Bay Of Bengal System Will Bring Heavy Rains To Coastal Andhra and Karnataka

Expected Rainfall from Low Pressure in the Bay of Bengal from now till November 15, 2014

A low pressure system hovers in the Bay of Bengal now. It is going to bring heavy rainfall to southern Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu in the next few days. Winds of 30-45 Kph will lash southern Andhra coast tomorrow.

The system is looking for warm waters in the Bay of Bengal for energy. But the waters in Indian east coast have cooled. So the system will not develop into a significant tropical storm.

But the low pressure area is going to bring a deluge in southern coastal Andhra and northern Tamil Nadu and especially Puducherry when it makes landfall on November 13, 2014 [Thursday]. Puducherry will see rains in excess of 5 inches. So will Nellore District [Including Nellore city] of Andhra Predesh.

Heavy rains will be seen in central Sri Lanka and Kerala also. Northern coastal Karnataka will see a deluge too, especially Udipi district. The rest of the state including Bengaluru will receive showers. South India will feel the effects of the system till Sunday. Goa will get some showers.

Bay of Bengal Storm Final Update: Nov 8, 2014: Cyclone Unlikely, Just A Depression On November 13. Heavy Rains Expected.

The expected November 13 storm in the Bay of Bengal that will move into Andhra will not be a cyclone but a depression with 40-50 Kph winds. 

In the last few days reliable forecast models had predicted a big cyclone would hit the Andhra coast on Nov 13. The forecast was the system would move into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand and turn into a cyclone.

But latest forecasts have downgraded the system to a mere depression. In short, no cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The expected system will be at best a depression that would hit the Indian coast on November 13, 2014 with winds of about 40-50 Kph.

But it will bring very heavy rains to southern coastal Andhra, Puducherry and northern Tamil Nadu beginning from Wednesday night and will continue for another 48 hours after that. The system will move over into Karnataka and bring heavy rainfall there too on November 14, 2014. In fact all the Indian southern states will witness precipitation.

But no cyclone as we said earlier. We shall continue to monitor future forecasts by the various computer models and inform you whether there is any possibility of Cyclone Ashobaa. But the chance of the expected system intensifying into a big cyclone is low.

We will keep you updated.

Bay of Bengal Update: Nov 6, 2014: Cyclone ASHOBAA Coming ON November 13 To Andhra: Present Depression Will Fizzle Out

Things have become clear now. Two computer models support that Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Indian coast of Andhra Pradesh on November 13, 2014. The present much vaunted depression in the bay will fizzle out in 2-3 days.

It is certain now that the depression is just a trailer to the real thing. The Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Andhra coast on November 13, The present depression will weaken into a low pressure area and dissipate. May be some showers on the Andhra-Odisha coast. 

But the cyclone, the real thing will come in another week's time. Future cyclone Ashobaa is already a low pressure area in the South China Sea. On November 10 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and start strengthening. It may well turn into a cyclone by the time it moves over the Andaman Islands on November 11. [Or a deep depression]'

After that it will start intensifying rapidly and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast and hit it ferociously on November 13, 2014. As to its intensity. The GFS model says it will be a big storm. The ECMWF model largely supports it. At least a deep depression. So lots of winds and heavy precipitation is likely in Andhra Pradesh on November 13-14.

This forecast is supported by two major reliable computer models. Hence we are largely certain that that is how things will pan out.

Look out, Andhra! Cyclone Ashobaa is coming.

The situation on Nov 10. The present depression dies out lamely near the Andhra coast. Meanwhile the robust system crosses over into the Bay from Gulf of Thailand. That is cyclone Ashobaa

LATEST BAY OF BENGAL UPDATE: A BIG CYCLONE WILL HIT ANDHRA COAST NOVEMBER 13, 2014: 2 CYCLONES IN 5 DAYS?

Things clearer now. Cyclone Ashobaa will hit Andhra coast on November 13, 2014.

The present depression will weaken and touch Andhra on November 9, Sunday. The real cyclone [Ashobaa] will hit on November 13, 2014.

Andhra Pradesh is in for a lot of rains. No doubt about that. The present depression will move to the Andhra coast on November 9. Lot of rains then. if JTWC is to be believed the system will gain cyclone status. That is wind speeds of 62+ Kph. I wonder what the Indian Met calls it. A deep depression. Or a cyclone. If it calls it a cyclone then this system will be Ashobaa.

And the next cyclone will be called Komen. And that cyclone is coming soon. On November 13, 2014. Komen will be a much larger cyclone. A real humdinger. The birth of that storm has already taken place. In the South China Sea. As a low pressure area. On November 10, 2014 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and turn into a cyclone [Ashobaa or Komen?].

So the situation in a nutshell. If the IMD gives the present system, hovering in the Bay of Bengal, a name: Ashobaa, the November 13 cyclone will be cyclone Komen. So in that case two cyclones, one small, another bigger, will hit the Andhra coast in a span of five days.

The present conclusions we outline with some certainty. Both the GFS and ECMWF models support it.

Keep reading this site for the latest updates.

No Cyclone In Bay of Bengal: Heavy Rains In Northern Tamil Nadu On Novemebr 14, 2014

We recently ruled out the possibility of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal based on the GFS model. This model said yesterday that only a low pressure area will form which will bring heavy rains to Myanmar around November 8, 2014.

Surprisingly the Canadian CMC forecast says a massive cyclone will hit the Odisha coast on November 7, 2014. Latest CMC forecasts say that the low pressure will head towards Myanmar coast strengthen into a cyclone and then swing back and hit Odisha on November 11. All very elaborate and long-winded.

The reliable European model ECMWF predicts a depression that will bring rains to Odisha around November 10, 2014.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2014, 10 AM [IST]: CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL FORM ON NOVEMBER 10 EAST OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND HIT ANDHRA COAST AT VISAKHAPATNAM ON NOVEMBER 12 NIGHT

Read More>>>>>

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Confusing situation. We can only wait and watch. We would bet on what the GFS says. We can be sure of a cyclone when the ever-reliable GFS confirms it. Right now all it says is a low pressure area going into Myanmar. Personally, we think the chances of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal appear are slim. Typhoon Nuri sucked off all the energy from the Bay of Bengal.

It is quite definite now that the likelihood of a storm in the Bay of Bengal this year is little. The much
vaunted low pressure area that is hovering in the Bay will move to Myanmar on November 9. It will make landfall as a low pressure area. Lots of rain in the country, but no cyclone.

Another low pressure area will cross over into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand immediately after the earlier area goes to Myanmar. This system will traverse the Bay of Bengal briskly [Turn into, perhaps, a depression] bringing heavy rains to northern Tamil Nadu on November 13-14.

In short, no cyclone.

 The CMC predicts a cyclone on Nov 7

 The ECMWF says a depression on Nov 10

The GFS predicts a low pressure (or a depression] on Nov 11

A video about Typhoon Nuri and a possible storm in the Bay of Bengal

Typhoon Nuri Will Turn Into A 340-380 Kph Monster Typhoon Today

What does one call it? The word "Super Typhoon" does not suffice. Today night the monster in the North-West Pacific called Nuri will reach a frightening strength. Normal winds of 340 Kph gusting up to a horrendous 380 Kph.

What power of nature. Mother Earth is merciful that this storm will reach its peak when no land mass is nearby. Imagine what winds of 380 Kph would do on a populated area! One shudders to even think about it.

Nuri is not going to hit Japan directly. It is going cruise along its shores, coming closest on November 6, 2014 near Tokyo. The wind speed then will be 185 Kph gusting to 230 Kph. Tokyo is in for a windy Thursday.

This is the winds Nuri is going to throw according to JTWC forecasts. Note that the "KTS" in the graph is knots, not Kph. 1 knot = 1.85 Kph

Predicted path of Typhoon Nuri according to a JTWC bulletin issued at 0300 Hrs today [UTC]

This is how Nuri moved in the last few hours

Typhoon Nuri Will Turn Into A Monster Super Typhoon Tomorrow

The Pacific ocean is known to churn out monster storms. It will prove that once again. Typhoon Nuri which lies 2220 Kms SSW of Yokosuka, Japan will turn into a super typhoon with winds of 250 Kph gusting up to a whopping 310 Kph. Phew!

It is curving towards Japan but it it will not strike the islands, but pass it by on November 6-7, 2014. But the country will feel its effects. The eastern coast will see strong winds and rains on those days.

Japan is lucky that Nuri has decided to give it a skip.

A Taiwanese weather newscaster talks about the "parrot storm" [Typhoon Nuri] and Taiwan's weather.

Future Storm ASHOBAA Update: May Hit Visakhapatnam On November 8, 2014

We hate to be the harbinger of bad news. But latest forecasts suggest future cyclone Ashobaa may strike the Andhra coast around Visakhapatnam. One feels for the people of Vizag who are still emerging from the devastation wreaked by Hudhud.

Cyclone Ashobaa will form near the Little Andaman Island on November3-4. It will then slowly intensify into a cyclone which, according to latest forecasts available, will strike the Indian coast near Visakhapatnam on November 8, 2014.

Thankfully Ashobaa will not be another Phailin or Hudhud. The winds at impact will be 80-100 Kph. It will be a smaller storm.

We shall keep a close watch on the area around the Andaman islands in the next two days and keep you informed of the latest.

Bay of Bengal In Ferment: Depression [Or Cyclone Priya?] Will Move Into Tamil Nadu November 7

November 7. The system [Cyclone Ashobaa-Priya] about to hit Tamil Nadu

There is massive churning going on in the Bay of Bengal presently (The Northern Indian Ocean has been active this year: Nanauk, Hudhud, Nilofar and now Priya perhaps?]. It has brought heavy rains to Sri Lanka.

But it is going to throw up a deep depression [Or Cyclone] in the first week of November. The system will form off the Tamil Nadu coast and move into the state on November 7, 2014.

Present indications are its going to be a deep depression. But a little more intensification and Cyclone Priya [Ashobaa?] will form.

We will watch the sea closely in the next few days.