Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY

Tropical Cyclone OLWYN To Hit Western Australian Coast At Carnarvon

See Tropical Cyclone OLWYN LIVE

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015, 0630 GMT

STORM ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SHARK BAY

It is a significant storm, throwing winds of 100 kph and it is presently at Shark Bay.  After that it will make landfall, half in the ocean, half on land and move along the West Australian coast. It is going to weaken and move on to Perth in 24 hours as a low pressure area.

Within the next 12 hours it will cease to be a tropical storm. Just a low pressure area. But expect strong winds and downpours along the coast from Carnarvon to Geraldton.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015: 0700 HOURS GMT

CYCLONE OLWYN HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN EXPECTED.

Just yesterday forecast models had predicted that tropical cyclone Olwyn would not be a big storm. Just a 80 kph storm. But Olwyn has belied expectations.

It has already turned into a 90 kph storm. A Category 2 cyclone. The JTWC expects it to graduate to a Category 3 with speeds of 70 knots soon.

Presently it lies 240 kilometers north of Exmouth. 230 kilometers north-north-west of Onslow in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia.

It will move along the coast but not make landfall. On March 13 (March 14 in Australia) it will move inland at Shark Bay near the town of Carnarvon.

It will weaken on landfall. and move south and bring some rains to Perth. It will enter the Great Australian Bight on March 15, 2015.

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE OLWYN

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 1230 HOURS GMT

Cyclone Olwyn is a weak strom compared to the super cyclone Pam rushing into Vanuatu. Or compared to cyclone Nathan which is going to lash Queensland coast with 100 kph winds.

The best that Olwyn will do is rustle up winds of 80 kph. It is going to make landfall at Onslow in Western Australia on the night of March 12, that is Friday night.

After that it is going to move south close along the Australian coast and bring windy weather and rains to Perth on March 14, 2015. After that it will move into land and dissipate.

But one could expect winds and rains along the West Australian coast  extending from Port Hedland to Perth. The town affected will be Onslow, Carnarvon, Geraldton and finally Perth.

Presently cyclone Olwyn lies about 575 kilometers north of Onslow. About 540 kilometers north-west of Port Hedland. Its currently throwing up winds of 60 kph. The central minimum pressure is 1002 Mb. More of a deep depression than a tropical storm.

The JTWC believes cyclone 19S (Olwyn) will move inland after hitting Onslow and will not affect Perth. So the JTWC prediction differs from the prediction by the GFS Forecast Model.

We think the GFS Model forecast will prevail.

THE US NAVY'S JTWC BELIEVES CYCLONE OLWYN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER HITTING ONSLOW IN WESTERN AUTRALIA. THE GFS PREDICTS OLWYN WILL REACH PERTH ON MARCH 14, 2015

Cyclone CHEDZA Will Not Affect Mauritius Or Reunion

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.

Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.

0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015

CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.

The storm  lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.

CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015

Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar.  But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.

By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.

Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.

January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE

An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT.

WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...

CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.

1030 Hours, January 14, 2015

STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker

0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.

1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT  

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT: Latest Track Forecast Maps: Updated Continuously

We are following typhoon Hagupit continuously. Below we will give you the latest graphic forecasts, track/path maps and satellite images,

You can read the latest news and forecast updates of Hagupit HERE

You can see the typhoon Live HERE. Also animated satellite images of its recent movement HERE

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Hagupit is a depression now with winds of 50 kph. It is likely to dissipate in the next 24-48 hours

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How much is it going to rain in next 24 hours (Till December 13, 2014) owing to the remnants of Hagupit?

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Hagupit Latest Forecast Track: 0300 HRS GMT, December 11, 2014

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The JTWC Track Issued at 0300 Hours, GMT, December 10, 2014

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Latest track forecast for Hagupit: 0000 hours, December 9, 2014. The GFS, NAVGEM, and GEM forecasts are shown. The NAVGEM model sends Hagupit to India!

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Track tropical storm Hagupit: 0300 hours UTC December 9, 2014. The storm is weakening all the time. It will not be a cyclone when it hits Vietnam on the morning of December 10, 2014, but a depression.

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Latest track for Hagupit: 0900 Hours, December 8, 2014

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VIDEO: The Day After: The power of Hagupit. Samar and Leyte, Philippines. December 7, 2014 morning.


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Hagupit latest track forecast by GFS, GEM Models (0000 hrs, December 7, 2014)

Hagupit latest track. 0300 Hours GMT. Dec. 7, 2014.

Typhoon Hagupit at 0330 hours, GMT, December 7, 2014

Latest Hagupit: Image: December 6, 2014, 0330 Hrs GMT

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JTWC Latest Track for Hagupit: 0300 hours GMT, December 6, 2014, Saturday

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0230 Hours GMT, December 6, 2014, Saturday: SATELLITE IMAGE OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT

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Latest GFS and NAVGEM Hagupit Track Forecast (1800 Hrs, GMT, December 5, 2014)

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Satellite Image: Hagupit: 0930 Hrs GMT, December 5, 2014

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JTWC Track: 0900 Hrs GMT, December 5, 2014

The GFS and the European models predict a little southerly route for Typhoon Hagupit. According to the JTWC , the places that will bear the brunt of the storm will be the northern tip of Samar Island, the entire Bikol Island, Southern Tagalog and Central Luzon (Including Manila). Winds at time of impact at Catarman and Oras (Samar) will be 200 Kmph, gusts up to 250 Kmph.

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How will the typhoon go? Latest Track forecast for HAGUPIT by the GFS, GEM and NAVGEM models

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Hagupit Typhoon Image at 0430 Hrs GMT. December 5, 2014

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The  JTWC Typhoon Hagupit Forecast Track Issued at 0300 Hrs, December 5, 2014

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Animated imagery by NOAA of Typhoon Hagupit
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VIDEO: A Philippines TV clip shows how Tacloban is preparing for typhoon Hagupit. (It is in Filipino, I am afraid!)

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Today: December 4, 2014: 1130 GMT: Super Typhoon HAGUPIT IR Image

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The JTWC Hagupit Track Forecast bulletin today (December 4, 2014) 1500 Hrs GMT shows Philippines being hit

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Latest GFS forecasts today: Hagupit will hit Philippines on Saturday

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Super Typhoon HAGUPIT. Infra-Red Satellite Image taken at 0300 Hrs GMT Today(December 4, 2014). The eye of the cyclone is clearly seen; An indication of a very powerful storm.

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THE LATEST (TODAY, 0300 HRS GMT) TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC SHOWS TYPHOON HAGUPIT MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF PHILIPPINES. IT WILL COME CLOSE TO THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY MORNING (PHILIPPINES TIME). THE GFS DIFFERS: IT PREDICTS IT WILL SWING AWAY FROM THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY EVENING.

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How has Hagupit moved?

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Latest satellite image (0930 hrs, GMT, December 3, 2014) of Typhoon Hagupit

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VIDEO: December 3, 2014: GFS Track forecast of the typhoon

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The latest bulletin (Today at 0900 Hrs GMT) issued by the JTWC shows that the typhoon HAGUPIT is going to curve north from Saturday.

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Satellite image of the storm taken at 0600 hrs GMT today (December 3, 2014)

Future Storm ASHOBAA Update: May Hit Visakhapatnam On November 8, 2014

We hate to be the harbinger of bad news. But latest forecasts suggest future cyclone Ashobaa may strike the Andhra coast around Visakhapatnam. One feels for the people of Vizag who are still emerging from the devastation wreaked by Hudhud.

Cyclone Ashobaa will form near the Little Andaman Island on November3-4. It will then slowly intensify into a cyclone which, according to latest forecasts available, will strike the Indian coast near Visakhapatnam on November 8, 2014.

Thankfully Ashobaa will not be another Phailin or Hudhud. The winds at impact will be 80-100 Kph. It will be a smaller storm.

We shall keep a close watch on the area around the Andaman islands in the next two days and keep you informed of the latest.

Cyclone Hudhud Update 8:30 AM,12/10/2014: WARNING! IN A FEW HOURS: 175-210 KPH WINDS TO HIT VISAKHAPATNAM

Cyclone Hudhud is just a few hours from making landfall. Ground Zero will be Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam coast. The winds will be 175 Kph, gusting up to 210 Kph.The devastation is going to be massive. Because these kinds of winds are going to howl on for about 12 hours.

A TV channel met some coastal residents near Vizag who were wide awake throughout the night. When asked they said they had never heard such winds before and they were frightened.

The good news is that the storm is weakening slightly. At 5:30 in the morning it was at its peak, throwing up winds of 200-250 Kph when it was a few kilometers away.

The Andhra districts of Srikaulam, Vijayanagaram and Visakhapatnam will bear the brunt of Hudhud's fury. So will Malkangiri district of Odisha.

#CycloneHudhud makes landfall Raw Video

 http://goo.gl/tLMGvX

LATEST PREDICTED PATH TRACK OF CYCLONE HUDHUD (UPDATED REGULARLY)

Latest predicted path/track of Cyclone Hudhud according to JTWC (Updated 12/10/2014, 9:00 AM, IST)

Cyclone Hudhud Will Hit Orissa Coast At Gopalpur-At-Sea (Berhampur) On October 11, 2014

Satellite Image of Tropical depression 19B (Future Cyclone Hudhud) taken at 8:30 PM (IST)

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE: OCTOBER 7, 2014: 9:30 PM IST

Cyclone Hudhud is going to form soon. It is called Tropical depression 19B presently. Contrary to earlier expectations it will initially be a weak storm. It is only when it nears the Andhra-Orisaa border coast (Gopalpur-at-Sea, Berhampur) that it will intensify rapidly and turn into a big cyclone. The landfall is expected to be on October 11-12, 2014.

Projected Path and Intensity of Cyclone According To Met Office

 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99B        ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N  94.6E



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2014  11.4N  94.6E     WEAK

 12UTC 07.10.2014  11.9N  93.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.10.2014  12.7N  92.4E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2014  13.3N  91.0E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.10.2014  14.1N  89.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2014  14.9N  89.0E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2014  15.7N  88.1E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2014  16.8N  87.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2014  17.5N  86.4E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 11.10.2014  18.1N  84.8E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2014  18.1N  83.2E    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.10.2014  18.7N  81.6E   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 13.10.2014  19.6N  80.1E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

JTWC Bulletin On Cyclone Hudhud: 7:00 PM October 7, 2014

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Cyclone Hudhud Update: MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE A NASTY STORM

The guy was just born; And he is throwing up winds of 55 kph! One can imagine what he will do when he grows up!

Latest satellite image of the system (Hudhud)

We talk here of the upcoming tropical cyclone HUDHUD.

It hasn't even crossed the Andaman islands and is growing in power.

Hudhud is going to be one of those relatively quick-moving storms. Born today. And will slam into the Andhra-Orissa border on October 11-12, 2014. Four-five days flat.

The latest forecast has not changed much from what we said earlier. Only the final destination of the storm remains slightly unclear. Orissa? Andhra? Or on the border between both? (Or is our man going to change his mind again? Cyclones are so darned unpredictable. So Bangladesh, West Bengal. Keep your fingers crossed. At least for the next two three days.

The venerable JTWC will make things more precise then. It just says the "possibility of the development of a significant tropical storm in the next 48 hours is medium."

NOAA is more alert. It has already given a name to the system. 10992014 INVEST.

The cyclone is coming. No doubt about it. Several forecast models confirm the fact.

How intense is it going to be? Present forecasts say it is going to be quite a storm.

A day more. The JTWC will confirm. The IMD will confirm. And both the web and TV airwaves will be saturated with cyclone Hudhud.

Keep in touch for the latest, reliable updates.

FORECAST MAP: This is how cyclone Hudhud will grow and move in the next 5 days

Read More

• Latest Update: Not Orissa, but Andhra Coast on October 11, 2014
• #CycloneHudhud Will Rapidly Intensify in 24 Hours After It Crosses Andaman Islands
• Cyclone Hudhud Has Formed in The Bay of Bengal: Will Hit Orissa Coast on October 11, 2014
• Is Cyclone HUDHUD Coming Soon To Bay of Bengal?

Possible Super TYPHOON VONGFONG Heading Towards Japan

We had written a few days ago of Japan's coming woes. Even as Typhoon Phanfone batters the country another tropical storm hovers in the Pacific. Typhoon Vongfong.

Forecasts say this Vongfong is going to be another super typhoon. As bad as Phanfone.

The JTWC says on its way to Japan, Vongfong will have winds of 230 kph to 280 kph. A super typhoon. A US category 5 storm.

Vongfong is slowly going to move towards Japan in the next few days until it nears the country on October 10, 2014. After that it will kind of stand still for the next three days till October 13, 2014. That is the most worrying part. A tropical storm just stands near still near the coast. In 1999 the super cyclone of the Orissa coast just hovered around for some time at the Orissa coast without weakening. That 1999 storm devastated Orissa.

Hope history does not repeat itself.

Typhoon Vongfong is bad news for Japan.

Philippines will not be affected by Typhoon Vongfong. Guam is in the way.

LATEST TYPHOON PHANFONE UPDATE: OCT. 5, 2014: Will Hammer Tokyo Tomorrow With 140 KPH Winds

Typhoon Phanfone will smash into Tokyo tomorrow (Monday, October 6, 2014) noon local time with winds of 140-165 kph. A category 1 or category 2 hurricane according to US standards, but still that is quite a punch. So forget motor racing and Grand Prix.

The southern parts of Japan are already bearing the brunt of the typhoon as it slides along the coast of the country with winds of 185 kph gusting up to a mammoth 225 kph. A category 3 or 4 storm.

Japan has another worry coming up as it deals with typhoon Phanfone. Another typhoon Vongfong has already formed in the Pacific and ready to move towards Japan in the coming days. More about that later.

October 5, 2014. Kagoshima, Japan. Phanfone's fury