UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015, 0630 GMT
STORM ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SHARK BAY
It is a significant storm, throwing winds of 100 kph and it is presently at Shark Bay. After that it will make landfall, half in the ocean, half on land and move along the West Australian coast. It is going to weaken and move on to Perth in 24 hours as a low pressure area.
Within the next 12 hours it will cease to be a tropical storm. Just a low pressure area. But expect strong winds and downpours along the coast from Carnarvon to Geraldton.
UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015: 0700 HOURS GMT
CYCLONE OLWYN HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN EXPECTED.
Just yesterday forecast models had predicted that tropical cyclone Olwyn would not be a big storm. Just a 80 kph storm. But Olwyn has belied expectations.
It has already turned into a 90 kph storm. A Category 2 cyclone. The JTWC expects it to graduate to a Category 3 with speeds of 70 knots soon.
Presently it lies 240 kilometers north of Exmouth. 230 kilometers north-north-west of Onslow in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia.
It will move along the coast but not make landfall. On March 13 (March 14 in Australia) it will move inland at Shark Bay near the town of Carnarvon.
It will weaken on landfall. and move south and bring some rains to Perth. It will enter the Great Australian Bight on March 15, 2015.
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| THE TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE OLWYN |
UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 1230 HOURS GMT
Cyclone Olwyn is a weak strom compared to the super cyclone Pam rushing into Vanuatu. Or compared to cyclone Nathan which is going to lash Queensland coast with 100 kph winds.
The best that Olwyn will do is rustle up winds of 80 kph. It is going to make landfall at Onslow in Western Australia on the night of March 12, that is Friday night.
After that it is going to move south close along the Australian coast and bring windy weather and rains to Perth on March 14, 2015. After that it will move into land and dissipate.
But one could expect winds and rains along the West Australian coast extending from Port Hedland to Perth. The town affected will be Onslow, Carnarvon, Geraldton and finally Perth.
Presently cyclone Olwyn lies about 575 kilometers north of Onslow. About 540 kilometers north-west of Port Hedland. Its currently throwing up winds of 60 kph. The central minimum pressure is 1002 Mb. More of a deep depression than a tropical storm.
The JTWC believes cyclone 19S (Olwyn) will move inland after hitting Onslow and will not affect Perth. So the JTWC prediction differs from the prediction by the GFS Forecast Model.
We think the GFS Model forecast will prevail.
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| THE US NAVY'S JTWC BELIEVES CYCLONE OLWYN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER HITTING ONSLOW IN WESTERN AUTRALIA. THE GFS PREDICTS OLWYN WILL REACH PERTH ON MARCH 14, 2015 |
