Cyclone FANTALA April 2016: Latest Updates

Track CYCLONE FANTALA Live

FINAL UPDATE:APRIL 21, 2016

Within 24 hours the weakening tropical cyclone will again move course roughly westward and pass the northern tip of Madagascar on April 24/25. There is little chance of it threatening Mauritius in any way.

The infrared image of the storm was taken at 0200 hours GMT today.

UPDATE: APRIL 20, 2016

Cyclone Fantala is steadily weakening and will continue to do so. It is now moving ESE. After a few days it will drift back in a WNW direction, passing the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25. It may then fizzle out mid sea or bring rainfall to the Tanzania-Mozambique border coast later. The only land area it may affect is Saint Brandon, the little isle north of Mauritius.

Interestingly forecast models are hinting at a new tropical storm in the southern Indian Ocean around April 25. This possibility is supported by NOAA in its fortnightly outlook (See map below)

UPDATE: APRIL 19, 2016

After becoming the strongest tropical cyclone recorded in the Indian Ocean (North and Southern) on April 18 with one minute sustained winds of 275 km/h, FANTALA is now weakening and moving in a southeasterly direction.

It will move so till April 23 after which it will again change direction and move west. It will hit the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25/26 as a tropical storm.

Going by present forecasts, the threat to Mauritius and Rodrigues seems to be receding.

Fantala is weakening as the latest satellite image ( April 19, 0300 hours GMT) shows

Latest track forecast for Fantala

UPDATE: APRIL 17, 2016

Fantala is presently a furious storm, with 240 km/h winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It lies about 1100 kilometres NW of Mauritius.

Reliable forecast models now agree that within 24-48 hours the cyclone will swing southeasterly. It may pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues on April 23, 2016. A direct hit on Rodrigues is not ruled out.

The cyclone is expected to weaken considerably in the coming days after April 19.

Satellite image 0730 hours GMT, April 17, 2016

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UPDATE APRIL 16, 2016. 

Even reliable forecast models are giving erratic predictions at every update. There is a possibility that cyclone Fantala might hover around about 500 kilometres NW of Mauritius for a week then weaken and make landfall into northeastern Madagascar.

But we still believe that the storm will swing southeasterly on April 19 and hit Rodrigues island on 22-23rd.

Meanwhile Fantala has intensified into a category 4 hurricane with winds that the JTWC expects to touch a whopping 130 knots (240 km/h). It presently lies about 800 kilometres north of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST ISSUED TODAY 

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UPDATE APRIL 15, 2016 - There is little change in the forecast scenario since yesterday. Fantala will continue west till April 18 as a category 3 hurricane and then swing down and move southeasterly henceforth. A direct hit on Rodrigues is possible on April 22, 2016. But by then the cyclone will have weakened considerably to a category 1 or maybe just a tropical storm.

MPE IMAGE OF CYCLONE FANTALA APRIL 15, 2016. 0600 HOURS GMT 

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UPDATE APRIL 14, 2016 - Fantala is well on its way in turning into a category 4 monster hurricane soon as it moves west. Track forecasts indicate a abrupt change in direction on April 17-18. It will weaken slightly and move southeasterly. It is to be seen if it moves betwixt Mauritius and Rodrigues or hits Rodrigues directly. This will happen on April 21.

INFRARED IMAGE APRIL 14, 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE FANTALA 0200 GMT 

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Update April 13, 2016 - All forecast models agree on Fantala's future for the next 4 days. It will move westerly in the Southern Indian Ocean, intensifying all the time and reach the northernmost tip of Madagascar. The European model ECMWF, envisages it attaining a central pressure of 945 Mb. A category 5 hurricane.

Then from April 17-18 it will abruptly change direction and move southeasterly and move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island on April 21. It will have weakened quite a bit by then. This part of the forecast is prone to change. A little shift and a direct hit on either Mauritius or Rodrigues will happen

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Update: April 12, 2016 - Cyclone Fantala has formed. It lies about 650 kilometres south of Diego Garcia and is moving west. It will continue doing so for the next 3-4 days and then will abruptly change direction and move south or south-easterly. Present forecasts say it will hit Rodrigues Island on April 20 but Mauritius cannot be deemed safe as the forecast track has been changing all the time.

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Update: April 11, 2016 - The cyclone is presently a low pressure area south of Diego Garcia. It is strengthening all the time. Our guess is it will become a tropical cyclone by April 14. As to its track, the picture is nebulous. But forecast models at present are predicting that it will pass by Mauritius/Rodrigues Island around April 20.

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We have already warned on our Twitter page about a possible tropical cyclone brewing in the southern Indian Ocean in the coming days. We had also said the cyclone Fantala was unlikely to affect Mauritius, La Reunion islands.

But recent forecasts by reliable computer forecast models hint at the possibility of Fantala turning into a massive 946 Mb storm which will hover near the northeastern coast of Madagascar by April 17, 2016.

History says any tropical cyclone in that area tends to move south or southeasterly. Hence the possibility of Fantala hitting Mauritius or La Reunion is quite strong. The GFS model envisages a massive monster hitting the isle nation.

It is also possible that the storm may move through the northern tip of Madagascar and crash into Mozambique or southern coastal Tanzania. The ECMWF model supports this scenario.

The forecast image shows the cyclone's position on April 17.

Latest satellite images of cyclone Fantala 

Cyclone Joalane To Pass 250 Kilometers East of Rodrigues Thursday Night

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0000 HRS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE JOALANE IN SW INDIAN OCEAN

The latest track forecast for the powerful tropical cyclone Joalane in the South West Indian Ocean shows it swinging further east of Rodrigues Island of Mauritius.

The eye of the storm will pass the closest to Rodrigues Island Thursday night (April 9, 2015) about 250 kilometers east of the island. Under the influence Rodrigues Island will face winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph. And this is a very conservative estimate.

The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow evening Joalane will have sustained wind speeds of 120 knots (223 kph), gusts up to 145 knots (270 kph). Perhaps a Category 4 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Since the cyclone will pass about 800 kilometers from Mauritius there will no substantial influence on the island. But Rodrigues being nearer will face 75+ kph winds and heavy rainfall on Thursday.

The JTWC says other forecast models agree on the track forecast for cyclone Joalane. There is however some disagreement on the intensity of the storm. It is certain that Joalane is a powerful cyclone that is going to further intensify in the coming 30 hours.

Even now the sustained wind speeds in the storm are 130 kph. Presently it lies about 825 kilometers north-east of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST (JTWC) FOR CYCLONE JOALANE ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY

South West Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone JOALANE To Form April 8, 2015

A very powerful tropical cyclone is likely to form north of Mauritius on April 8, 2015. It is presently a low pressure area 91S.

91S presently lies about 980 kilometers north east of Mauritius. Sustained winds are already 60 kph. We can say 91S is already a depression, just a step short of a cyclone.

In the next two days it will move west in the South Western Indian Ocean. By April 7, 2015, it will be about 630 kms NNE of Mauritius. After which it will intensify into a tropical cyclone by next day, Wednesday. The storm will then start moving south.

By April 9, 2015, Thursday, it will have turned into a powerful cyclone with sustained winds of 140 kph. It will be just 400 kms NNE of Mauritius on Thursday.

There is a chance that the cyclone (Ikola?) may intensify even more. We are looking at the possibility of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Present forecast say the cyclone will move between Rodrigues island and Mauritius. But even then Mauritius will face very bad weather. The situation will be made worse by the fact that cyclone Ikola will be a slow moving cyclone.

SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE

WEATHER FORECAST MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONE IKOLA (?) MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON APRIL 12, 2015

FORECAST MAP ON APRIL 9, 2015

POWERFUL CYCLONE TO FORM NORTH OF MAURITIUS APRIL 7

There is every likelihood of a powerful cyclone forming 500 kms NNE of Mauritius on April 7, 2015. The storm will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues and head south. Though a direct hit is unlikey on Mauritius, conditions will be rough on April 7-9. Keep in touch for further updates.

 In the latest satellite image below is seen another cyclone 93S forming in the SE Indian Ocean. A weak storm, it will dissipate soon. The bigger storm will form north of Mauritius on April 7th.

TWO CYCLONES TO FORM IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IN THE COMING WEEK Two tropical cyclones are going to form in the S Indian Ocean in the coming days. Storm 93S will intensify soon into a cyclone and move south-east towards the south-western coastal waters of Australia. A weak storm it will form and weaken in a couple of days. 91S will be the bigger storm. It is presently a low pressure area in the ocean. By April 7 it will drift towards Mascareignes and intensify into a tropical cyclone north-east of Mauritius.

There is some confusion as to who will name Storm 93S. The Australians or the folks at Reunion? If 93S is named by the Australian Met then 91S will become Cyclone Ikola. Otherwise it will be named Joalane.

Track Forecast of Storm 91S (Future IKOLA?) in the SW Indian Ocean The Red Line is GFS Forecast Track Yellow Line is Canadian Model GEM. Blue Line is US Navy's NAVGEM Model Forecast.

Tropical Depression 94S (Cyclone Haliba) Will Bring Wet Windy Weather To Mascareignes From March 9

UPDATE (EXTRA): MARCH 9, 2015

CYCLONE HALIBA IS NOW CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND We are talking of now. 1330 GMT. Haliba is 100 kilometers south-west of Reunion Island. After this it will move away. The winds in Reunion now are about 60 kph, gusts will be more. The cyclone being weak and of a smaller diameter is affecting Mauritius less. Winds of barely 35 kph. This will gradually go up to 50 kph. From tomorrow they will start easing off in Mauritius too.

By March 11, 2015 the rains will ease off both in Reunion and Mauritius. Even now they are not much. Just incessant drizzle with some moderate winds.

The focus is now shifting to south-west Pacific which is going to see the possible super cyclone Pam and also quite a powerful but less predictable Tropical cyclone Nathan. The image below, is a water vapor image of cyclone Haliba taken at 0600 GMT today morning.

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UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Well, Storm 94S did manage to get named HALIBA. But it is more of a deep depression than a tropical storm. The central minimum pressure will be 996 Mb. Hardly cyclone material.

But it will bring dark, gloomy, rainy and windy weather to the Mascareignes for a couple of days. The dull weather will stretch on till Wednesday because the remnants of tropical storm 15S will drift into the region adding to the unstable weather.

But things will clear up on Thursday.

Expect on-off rains and winds of 40 kph in Mauritius and slightly more In Reunion for a couple of days.

Cyclone Haliba is just a little boy who will not grow up.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HALIBA WITH ITS PROJECTED PATH. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0600 GMT, MARCH 9, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

There is little doubt that 94S will not transform into a tropical cyclone. The system is desperately trying to grow up and mature into a cyclone but unfavourable conditions are preventing it.

The system presently lies about 520 kilometers west-north-west of Reunion Island. In the next two days it is going to move east and pass right through Reunion.

94S is not going to turn into a cyclone but it is going to bring rainy, windy weather in the Mascareignes till Wednesday. The skies will clear up on Thursday.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

The cyclone threat to the Mascareignes seems to have receded but the region is in for a very wet windy time in the coming days as a deep depression will pass through it.

Latest forecasts say tropical cyclone Fifteen will fizzle out after making landfall into Madagascar but it is going to add to the rains that are to hit Mascareignes in the next two days.

Storm 94S which presently lies a few hundred kilometers west of Mauritius is slowly going to move south first then angle across and pass close to Reunion island (ECMWF predicts a direct hit) on March 9-10, 2015. 94S will be a depression then. So expect continuous showers and winds of 40-55 kph in Reunion and Mauritius from March 9 onwards. Reunion will be affected more.

Even after 94S passes over, the remnants of cyclone 15 will hop over into the Mascareignes and pass through it as a low pressure area. This will add another day of overcast, wet and windy weather.

In conclusion showers and winds up to 55 kph expected in Reunion and Mauritius on March 9-11. No cyclone, just a depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94S IS PRESENTLY WEST OF MAURITIUS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL MOVE CLOSE BY (OR RIGHT THROUGH) REUNION ISLAND

Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.

Storm 90S May Spell Cyclone Trouble For Mascareignes

Update: February 21, 2015

The ECMWF has turned bearish on upcoming cyclone Glenda affecting Mascareignes. It believes Glenda will move southwards before entering the waters.

The GFS in contrast is still bullish. It believes 90S will move towards Rodrigues Island and then start intensifying rapidly. The Island is in for a thorough thrashing by Glenda on February 26, 2015. After which it will turn south thus sparing Mauritius.
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It is possible that cyclone Glenda has already been born. It is called 90S by NOAA and lay at 20.3°S 99.7°E at 0000 hours today south of Diego Garcia in the Southern Indian Ocean.

This storm, if forecasts are to be believed, will take a long time to form. It is only after 5-6 days that it will gain cyclone strength. Its movement will be confounding and haphazard. It will move east first then start curving and move towards Mascareignes.

Forecast models are divided. The GFS predicts future cyclone Glenda will move towards Mascareignes but then swerve south and miss even Rodrigues island. The ECMWF says no such luck. Glenda is going to slam into the aforementioned group of islands. Or move very close to them.

It is certain that 90S is going to turn into a very powerful storm called cyclone Glenda in the coming days.

THE MASSIVE SWIRLING MASS OF CLOUDS NORTH-EAST OF MASCAREIGNES IS STORM 90S, FUTURE CYCLONE GLENDA

Cyclone Eunice Will Not Affect Mauritius, Reunion: Some Effect On Rodrigues Island

CYCLONE EUNICE WILL NOT AFFECT MAURITIUS, REUNION. SOME INFLUENCE ON RODRIGUES: It is going to be a big storm. If JTWC is to be believed, in the next two days it will turn into a cyclone with winds of 220 kph. We believe it will easily be in excess of 150 kph. The storm is 1040 kilometers North-east of Mauritius now (0615 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015). Wind speed is 90 kph.

RELEVANT TO FOLKS IN THE MASCAREIGNES: Cyclone Eunice, however big it will turn out to be, will not affect Mauritius or Reunion. Some showers in Mauritius tomorrow morning perhaps. Otherwise nothing. Rodrigues Island will be somewhat affected. But not in the measure of Bansi. There will be incessant light rains in the island for the next 48 hours, with maximum winds of 50 kph. Not more. That is because Cyclone Eunice is not going to come close to Rodrigues Island. Only the outer periphery will affect.

The cyclone will move first in a SE direction then in a easterly direction. The satellite image below was taken at 0530 hours GMT today.

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015

Cyclone CHEDZA Will Not Affect Mauritius Or Reunion

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.

Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.

0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015

CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.

The storm  lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.

CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015

Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar.  But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.

By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.

Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.

January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE

An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT.

WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...

CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.

1030 Hours, January 14, 2015

STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker

0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.

1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT  

Future Possible Super Cyclone Bansi Has Been Born As 92S In SW Indian Ocean

Update: December 9, 2015

The monster has been spawned. Possible super storm 'Bansi' (NOAA calls it 92S) was born yesterday evening just a few hundred kilometers north-west of the Mascareignes. It lies now (At 0000 Hours, GMT, December 9, 2015) at 18.9 South and 53.9 East. Pressure 1007 Mb. An innocuous little 'low'. In a day or two it will start transforming into a massive super-cyclone, if some forecast models are to be believed.

The storm has been born very near Mauritius and Reunion. That is worrying as we have already discussed before. There is little response time between the official storm warning and the actual cyclone hit. Anyway.

What is frightening is that the normally reticent ECMWF Model predicts Bansi will be a cyclone with a central pressure of 932 Mb. A massive powerful storm with a diameter that would cover the entire peninsular India. Big. Big. The lower the central pressure the more intense the storm. Simply put, it mean stronger winds. Real bad news.

The only good news is that Bansi will turn into a monster only after it leaves the Mascareignes. Some consolation. Latest GFS forecasts say when Bansi will be moving over Mauritius it have winds in excess of 150 kph.. Yeah. The latest forecast bulletin, issued at 0000 hours GMT today, says Bansi is going to hit Mauritius head on.

Time of impact? Morning of January 13, 2015. Coming Tuesday morning.

The storm will turn into a tropical cyclone on January 12, 2015. Monday. Three days to go. We suggest that instead of waiting for the official confirmation of Bansi, start making preparations for a 150 kph storm in the coming days. That includes folks in Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues Island. Because the cyclone may make a direct hit anywhere.

Cyclone Chedza

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on january 13, 2015.


Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

Infra-Red Images of 92S taken at 0300 hours GMT, today (January 9, 2015)

The Lack of Information Can Be Perilous.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON JANUARY 13, 2015

I just logged into the MMS site out of curiosity and clicked on "Cyclone Warning for Mauritius" link. I got a "No Cyclone Warning". It stumps us. Weather charts show two dangerous "low" bobbing around in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another just a hundred kilometers north west of Mauritius. The BBC World Weather warned us yesterday that a storm may form in the area soon.

And we get just a "No Cyclone Warning".

That is worrying. Most model forecasts say  a tropical cyclone or two may form soon in the area. In the next 72-96 hours. And even  more worrying is some of these forecasts say the tropical storm over the Mascareignes will intensify over the area and move very slowly. In other words, the storm is going to grow just over the skies of Mauritius. Perilous stuff.

We know computer forecast models can sometimes go off the mark completely. And the last thing every body wants is to create a panic. But consider the facts. All the forecasts models are predicting a tropical cyclone in the Mascreignes. Some say it will be a weak storm some say it may turn into a super cyclone. But the fact remains, a cyclone is very likely.

The folks in the Mascreignes and other parts of south east Africa deserve a mention that a storm may be coming. Better a good scare than be surprised.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

This is the area which is going to spawn a cyclone soon

Forecast Models Say Mauritius Faces Real Threat Of A Cyclone In A Few Days January 2015

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates on Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

January 5, 2015

Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.

We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.

GFS

A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.

Special GFS

The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.

European Model

The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.

Canadian CMC

The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.

NAVGEM

The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.

Update: January 6, 2015

Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY: January 3, 2015: Cyclone Lam And Linda Imminent In Australia Around January 10, 2015

Update: January 3, 2015

Upcoming Cyclone Lam And Linda

Within 24 hours future tropical cyclone Lam will be born as a low pressure area in the Timor Sea in South-Eastern Indian Ocean. The storm will struggle to intensify into something bigger because of the unfavourable wind shear. But around January 10 it will manage to turn into a cyclone. Lam. It is expected to make landfall between Broome and Onslow in Western Australia and move right through the territory. On January 13 it will exit from the Australian land mass at Great Victorian Desert and Nullarbor Plains. The entire province of Western Australian will receive rains.

Another cyclone is expected to form almost simultaneously in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria around January 10, 2015. So it hard to say which of the storms will be Lam and Linda. The one in Western Australia or the one in Queensland? Now this storm will make landfall at Karumba in Queensland. It will then  move across the province and move into Pacific Ocean on January 12 between Mackay and Rockhampton. It will then move close along the coast for a day and swing away towards New Zealand. Brisbane will get a lashing from the storm on January 13. New Zealand may face a cyclone on January 14, 2015.

It is also possible that a storm may come from Papua New Guinea and hit the Queensland coast on January 10 near Townsville.

There are many complex factors at play so being 100% certain is difficult but it is certain that a cyclone is coming Australia's way soon. When? Where? We have outlined the possibilities.

See a tropical storm developing near Australia. LIVE.

South Western Indian Ocean

Presently a depression is moving around in circles in the Mozambique Channel. It will continue doing so for a few days more without strengthening into a storm. The conditions are not favouring it. Strong wind shear is preventing it to move away from its present area. So it is zigzagging around bringing lots of rains in coastal Mozambique and Madagascar.

Come January 14, 2015 and the South Western Indian Ocean may throw up two cyclones. One in the Mozambique Channel and one near Mascarene Islands. The former will make landfall into Mozambique around January 17-18. At the same time the second storm will move through Rodrigues Island and then move further south. So Rodrigues Island is in for a direct hit. Mauritius and La Reunion will feel the periphery of the cyclone.

Seems like Cyclones Bansi and Chedza are coming calling in mid January, 2015.

December 31, 2014: XWF-WEATHER Forecast Summary

Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal is in its death throes. Within the next 36 hours it will dissipate. But weather will be overcast and windy in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh till then. Some showers expected in these areas.

Tropical Storm Jangmi has weakened into a depression as it heads to Palawan. For the next few days it will move towards southern Thailand (And northern Malaysia) and bring rains there. Just that. Rains.

Australia is staring at a big cyclone in early January, 2015. North and Western coasts of the country. Cyclone Lam is imminent.

In south west Indian Ocean two tropical cyclones seem likely. First will affect southern Madagascar. The second will hit Mauritius and La Reunion around January 12, 2015.

December 30, 2014: Today's Forecasts In A Nut-Shell

LATEST XWF-WEATHER FORECASTS: A SUMMARY

Depression 95B has proved to have more stamina than expected. It is braving the cold waters as it ascends the latitudes in the Bay of Bengal. Likely to dissipate by January 2, 2015. Rains expected in east coast of India and Bangladesh.

Jangmi will not intensify much but will reach Thailand as a rain-maker. 

Kate goes strong as a category 3 hurricane tearing down the S Indian Ocean. Will start weakening soon.

North West Australia faces Cyclone Lam on January 6, 2015. Even Perth will be affected.

The Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, Reunion) will have a depression first (Or a cyclone) than may be a big cyclone on January 15-16, 2015.

A Vigorous Southern Indian Ocean May Throw Out A Couple Of Big Cyclones In Next 15 Days: Lam Coming To Australia

Update: December 30, 2014

Mother Earth May be hurtling blizzards and Arctic blasts in North Asia, Europe and North America but when it comes to the tropics, the Southern Indian Ocean reigns supreme. This active ocean already has a category 3 hurricane 'Kate' hurtling down south. In the next fifteen days it may engender two more tropical cyclones. Especially tropical cyclone 'Lam' which is expected to hit the western coast of Australia in early January, 2015.

Even as Kate will be in her death throes on January 2, 2015, another storm will come into being in the Mozambique Channel. This storm already exists as a low hugging the Afrian coast. In the next two days it will start intensifying and move around southern Madagascar. This storm may remain a deep depression, possibly a borderline cyclone.  Though this will not move north towards the Mascareignes, another depression (A potential cyclone) will come visiting the area on January 7, 2015. This depression now lies as a 'low' some hundred kilometers SW of Diego Garcia presently.

What is more interesting is the possibility of a big bad cyclone hitting western Australia in early January. Cyclone Lam will form on January 6, 2015 off the coast of North-West Australia between Broome and Karratha. Lam is going to be a big storm. Central pressure of 973 Mb. Exmouth will be badly hit with winds of 150 kph. The storm will not make landfall but move along the west coast of the country. Geraldton and Perth will too be affected.

That is not all. On January 12 a low pressure area will form north of Mauritius and will then start intensifying rapidly. Mauritius and La Reunion can expect a big cyclone on January 15-16.

Bakung Is Dead!

Update: December 17, 2014

Bakung is dead. The GFS had painted a rosy picture for the storm yesterday which had encouraged us to write about it hitting Mauritius. 

But there are changing factors in the Indian Ocean which has even the top forecast models giving radically different forecasts at every successive bulletins. The ocean is in deep ferment right now. No doubt about it. What worries us that with such rapidly changing conditions the hazard of a cyclone developing rapidly and moving even more rapidly becomes more.

We took a lot of flak for predicting that Bakung would hit Mauritius yesterday. Some folks even suggested that we could not read weather charts properly! What should be understood is that we base our predictions on what the various forecast models say. And when variables change rapidly, as they are doing so in the Indian Ocean, one get wildly fluctuating forecasts.

Please, do not shoot the messenger. Our only fault is that we do not wait (Like various Met Departments do) cautiously till a storm has formed and then give out weather forecasts. We do not play safe. We give you what the latest computer models say. Even if we get eggs thrown on our faces.

We inform and give out possibilities. First. As also the latest updates. And we shall continue to do so.

Keep in touch for the latest.

Update: December 16, 2014

The Mascareignes are in for tough times if latest forecast models are to be believed. The trouble

will come with the name of Bakung. The storm is going to start intensifying after 96 hours and start moving tpwards the Mascarene Islands. It will still be strengthening when it hits Mauritius head-on around the end of the month.

The presently weakened Bakung is not a cyclone now. Just one of the low pressure areas bobbing around in the vast Indian Ocean. But this is no ordinary low pressure area. It is going to cause serious trouble for Mauritius by the end of the month.

We have saying in the last few days that the Indian Ocean is in ferment now. We had also predicted that Bakung was down but not out.

The storm is going to slowly start intensifying after 96 hours. That is around December 21, 2014. After that it will start heading towards the Mascarene Islands. By the time it hits Mauritius on December 29, 2014 it will be a powerful cyclone. The central pressure of the storm will be 983 mb. A respectable storm. Not a Hagupit. But still a big enough storm to cause damage. The winds will be 150 kph when it hits Mauritius.

BAKUNG Down But Not Out

Update: December 14, 2014

Owing to adverse conditions cyclone Bakung has weakened to a depression. The JTWC has stopped writing about it. But within 36 hours it is going to regenerate and rise like a Phoenix.

Most forecasts give it a moderate future. One goes onto say it will turn into a Category 2 hurricane. Most say it will be  Cat. 1 storm. Bakung will intensify rapidly in a day or two and then start moving south.

It is most likely that the invigorated Bakung will not affect the Mascarene Islands. But the ECMWF model says otherwise. It foretells a strong cyclone (Minimum Central Pressure of about 980 mb) moving straight to these islands.

One of the forecasts paints a dramatic picture. That another cyclone will form in the South Indian Ocean that will merge with Bakung. The result will be a bigger storm. But these are mere different calculations for now.

One thing is certain. Cyclone Bakung is going to come back in 48 hours.

Cyclone Bakung Will Turn Out To Be A Category 2 Hurricane

Update: December 13, 2014

Cyclone Bakung which is at present hovering in the south Indian Ocean will intensify into a 140+ kph storm. Where will it go? What will be its path, track?

It lies 1200 kms ESE of Diego Garcia now (0430 Hours GMT). Winds are 75 kph. In the coming days it will intensify gradually to a storm with sustained winds of 150+ kph. Though there is a likelihood that it might go north and rather than start moving south straight away. Most probably it will steam down south in the Indian ocean without any land mass, in the stretch between Africa and Australia.

But forecasts differ. The European model predicts it will not strengthen in to something big but remain a weak storm but its direction will be different. A SW direction. Meaning it will head to Mascareignes.

Bakung will potter around its present area for a few days then on December 16, it will intensify rapidly into a 150 kph cyclone.

The chances of it hitting Mauritius is remote now. Only the Europeans support this track. The Americans predict a stronger storm which will go straight south and embrace the Westerlies and perish around December 22-23.

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE '2S' Update: NOVEMBER 29, 2014: 500 Kms From Mauritius: Will Intensify Into A 75-90 Kmph Storm Tonight

CLICK  HERE For Latest News and Forecast Updates of Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

CYCLONE '2S' UPDATE: NOVEMBER 29, 2014

The cyclone is 500 Kms NE of Mauritius now. (0200 Hrs GMT). Wind speed is 62 Kmph. Tonight (Mauritius time) it will intensify to winds of 75-90 Kmph. It will change direction and move between Mauritius and Rodigues Island.

The good news is that since the cyclone will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island the wind impact on these two island will be less. Tomorrow early morning Mauritius will have winds of 45-55 Kmph. Rodigues will be harder hit. Winds of 55 Kmph gusts up to 60 Kmph.

Compared to Mauritius, Rodigues will experience heavier rainfall.

It is unfortunate that the MMS is not calling the cyclone a cyclone just because of irrelevant technicalities. The JTWC has name it a cyclone, the MMS should follow suit, so that the people understand the gravity of the storm.

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YESTERDAY

NOAA has declared the storm a "Topical Cyclone Two". According to its observations the storm had wind speed of 65+ Kmph at 1200 Hrs GMT today. 

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28. 2014

The depression is 550 Kms North-East of Mauritius now. 0445 Hours GMT. Wind speeds of 55 Kmph. A deep depression is what met guys call it. Just a step away from a cyclone. Forecasts say it will intensify in a few hours. It will throw winds up to 70-80 Kmph. Technically it should be named a cyclone (Bansi) then. But if the MMS folks are as stingy as the Indian Met guys in naming storms, it will not be named.

By the time it passes Mauritius (It will pass from the east  about 50-100 Kms) on Sunday late evening it will be weakened to a depression. Rodrigues Island will face stronger winds and heavier rainfall than Mauritius as the storm will pass right through the island. Mauritius will have intermittent showers till Tuesday. Rodrigues will see heavy precipitation.

STORM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 0600 HRS GMT TODAY. WINDS OF 45-75 KMPH

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SPECIAL UPDATE November 27

The JTWC has taken cognizance of the storm. it says the possibility of it turning into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression lies about 850 kms NE of Mauritius. Winds are 55 kmph. Location: 13.2 S, 66.2 E at 0000 hours GMT today. There is no significant change as to its future course from the earlier update.

It's location now is 13.58 S, 64.91 E (0400 Hrs GMT). That is about 800 kms NE of Mauritius.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0300 HOURS (GMT)

SPECIAL UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Latest model forecasts indicate that the depression that lies about 1000 NE of Mauritius is going to intensify more than expected. It is already throwing winds of 55 kmph to 65 knph. By Friday this will rise to 75-85 kmph. The threshold for the Met guys at Mauritius is 65 kmph to name it "Bansi". Let us see when they do the christening. My suspicion is even the JTWC folks will jump in soon.

The storm will not intensify very much. It will weaken by the time its winds start lashing Mauritius by Friday night. Anyway there is going to be a lot of rainfall in the island till December 2, 2014. And winds of course. There may be wind gusts of 65 kmph.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The depression lay at Latitude 12 South, longitude 68.9 East at 0000 Hrs, GMT today. It has average winds of 55 Kmph gusting up to 65 Kmph. In the next few days it will move towards Mauritius. Latest forecasts say it is unlikely to intensify any further. Looks like the Met guys at MMC are not going to christen it "Bansi". The system will reach Mauritius shores on Saturday.

IR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT , NOV 26, 2014

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

There is a large swirling mass of clouds in the Indian Ocean below Diego Garcia Islands. Only the environment is not very favourable for it to transform into a big storm. Nevertheless, the system sustains. Presently it lies at 9.9 degrees south latitude,  70.3 degrees east longitude with winds of 45 Kmph gusting up to 55 Kmph. It is a depression now and lies 400 Kms SSW of the British Indian Ocean islands. It has moved westward in the last 24 hours. . Over the next few days it will move SW towards Mauritius. It will rapidly intensify into a 75-90 Kmph cyclone on November 30, near Mauritius. Very heavy rains are likely in Mauritius in November end. About 10 inches.

Nov 25, 0600 GMT:  has remained more or less stationary. Wind speeds have reached 55 Kmph. Location: Latitude: 10.3 S, Longitude: 70.3 E

An Infra-Red Image of the system taken today at 0400 hours GMT

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LATEST UPDATE NOV 24, 2014

CYCLONE "BANSI" WILL HIT MAURITIUS ON NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 1, 2014 WITH 80-100 KMPH WINDS

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: DECEMBER 1, 2014: MAURITIUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER DEPRESSION WHILE CYCLONE BANSI IS APPROACHING.

The Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka extending till Indonesia is in ferment. Very unstable atmosphere. Out of this turbulence three storms are going to emerge. One will move to south India and Sri Lanka and give these areas a thorough drenching. The other two will move into southern Indian Ocean.

We have been talking of cyclone Bansi for a while now. The low pressure has already formed. It lies 250 Kms SSE of British Indian Ocean Islands throwing up winds of 35 Kmph.

This system will intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours and move towards Mauritius. Chances are the depression will not intensify into cyclone strength. It will affect Mauritius and Reunion Islands on November 28, 2014. Winds will be 50-60 Kmph. A borderline case between a cyclone and a depression.

WHAT IS NOTABLE is another system will follow this depression in its wake. That will be cyclone Bansi. A stronger storm, it will reach cyclone status on November 29, the time the earlier depression will be drenching Mauritius. Present indications are Cyclone Bansi will hit Mauritius, perhaps in early December.

SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE