Bakung Will Come To Mascareignes As A Depression

Update: December 15, 2014

The chances of Bakung turning into a significant storm is getting remote.. The earlier forecasts hinting at a Category 2 hurricane seem to be receding.

Bakung is a mere Tropical Depression now. It has moved east in the last few days. It lies about 1000 kms ESE of Diego Garcia.

Most models agree that it is not going to move south as earlier predicted but move SW towards the Mascarene Islands. It is likely it will reach these islands as a depression by the end of the month. The GEM Model differs from the others. It foresees Bakung rejuvenating and A NEW storm being born in the coming week. And this storm (and not Bakung) will hit the Mascarene Islands around December 25, 2014. The model furthers says it will be a cyclone, not a mere depression.

Things are confused now. We have to wait for a few days till the "fog" clears.

Cyclone Bakung as seen on December 12, 2014

BAKUNG Down But Not Out

Update: December 14, 2014

Owing to adverse conditions cyclone Bakung has weakened to a depression. The JTWC has stopped writing about it. But within 36 hours it is going to regenerate and rise like a Phoenix.

Most forecasts give it a moderate future. One goes onto say it will turn into a Category 2 hurricane. Most say it will be  Cat. 1 storm. Bakung will intensify rapidly in a day or two and then start moving south.

It is most likely that the invigorated Bakung will not affect the Mascarene Islands. But the ECMWF model says otherwise. It foretells a strong cyclone (Minimum Central Pressure of about 980 mb) moving straight to these islands.

One of the forecasts paints a dramatic picture. That another cyclone will form in the South Indian Ocean that will merge with Bakung. The result will be a bigger storm. But these are mere different calculations for now.

One thing is certain. Cyclone Bakung is going to come back in 48 hours.