Bakung Is Dead!

Update: December 17, 2014

Bakung is dead. The GFS had painted a rosy picture for the storm yesterday which had encouraged us to write about it hitting Mauritius. 

But there are changing factors in the Indian Ocean which has even the top forecast models giving radically different forecasts at every successive bulletins. The ocean is in deep ferment right now. No doubt about it. What worries us that with such rapidly changing conditions the hazard of a cyclone developing rapidly and moving even more rapidly becomes more.

We took a lot of flak for predicting that Bakung would hit Mauritius yesterday. Some folks even suggested that we could not read weather charts properly! What should be understood is that we base our predictions on what the various forecast models say. And when variables change rapidly, as they are doing so in the Indian Ocean, one get wildly fluctuating forecasts.

Please, do not shoot the messenger. Our only fault is that we do not wait (Like various Met Departments do) cautiously till a storm has formed and then give out weather forecasts. We do not play safe. We give you what the latest computer models say. Even if we get eggs thrown on our faces.

We inform and give out possibilities. First. As also the latest updates. And we shall continue to do so.

Keep in touch for the latest.

Update: December 16, 2014

The Mascareignes are in for tough times if latest forecast models are to be believed. The trouble

will come with the name of Bakung. The storm is going to start intensifying after 96 hours and start moving tpwards the Mascarene Islands. It will still be strengthening when it hits Mauritius head-on around the end of the month.

The presently weakened Bakung is not a cyclone now. Just one of the low pressure areas bobbing around in the vast Indian Ocean. But this is no ordinary low pressure area. It is going to cause serious trouble for Mauritius by the end of the month.

We have saying in the last few days that the Indian Ocean is in ferment now. We had also predicted that Bakung was down but not out.

The storm is going to slowly start intensifying after 96 hours. That is around December 21, 2014. After that it will start heading towards the Mascarene Islands. By the time it hits Mauritius on December 29, 2014 it will be a powerful cyclone. The central pressure of the storm will be 983 mb. A respectable storm. Not a Hagupit. But still a big enough storm to cause damage. The winds will be 150 kph when it hits Mauritius.

Bakung Will Come To Mascareignes As A Depression

Update: December 15, 2014

The chances of Bakung turning into a significant storm is getting remote.. The earlier forecasts hinting at a Category 2 hurricane seem to be receding.

Bakung is a mere Tropical Depression now. It has moved east in the last few days. It lies about 1000 kms ESE of Diego Garcia.

Most models agree that it is not going to move south as earlier predicted but move SW towards the Mascarene Islands. It is likely it will reach these islands as a depression by the end of the month. The GEM Model differs from the others. It foresees Bakung rejuvenating and A NEW storm being born in the coming week. And this storm (and not Bakung) will hit the Mascarene Islands around December 25, 2014. The model furthers says it will be a cyclone, not a mere depression.

Things are confused now. We have to wait for a few days till the "fog" clears.

Cyclone Bakung as seen on December 12, 2014

BAKUNG Down But Not Out

Update: December 14, 2014

Owing to adverse conditions cyclone Bakung has weakened to a depression. The JTWC has stopped writing about it. But within 36 hours it is going to regenerate and rise like a Phoenix.

Most forecasts give it a moderate future. One goes onto say it will turn into a Category 2 hurricane. Most say it will be  Cat. 1 storm. Bakung will intensify rapidly in a day or two and then start moving south.

It is most likely that the invigorated Bakung will not affect the Mascarene Islands. But the ECMWF model says otherwise. It foretells a strong cyclone (Minimum Central Pressure of about 980 mb) moving straight to these islands.

One of the forecasts paints a dramatic picture. That another cyclone will form in the South Indian Ocean that will merge with Bakung. The result will be a bigger storm. But these are mere different calculations for now.

One thing is certain. Cyclone Bakung is going to come back in 48 hours.

Cyclone Bakung Will Turn Out To Be A Category 2 Hurricane

Update: December 13, 2014

Cyclone Bakung which is at present hovering in the south Indian Ocean will intensify into a 140+ kph storm. Where will it go? What will be its path, track?

It lies 1200 kms ESE of Diego Garcia now (0430 Hours GMT). Winds are 75 kph. In the coming days it will intensify gradually to a storm with sustained winds of 150+ kph. Though there is a likelihood that it might go north and rather than start moving south straight away. Most probably it will steam down south in the Indian ocean without any land mass, in the stretch between Africa and Australia.

But forecasts differ. The European model predicts it will not strengthen in to something big but remain a weak storm but its direction will be different. A SW direction. Meaning it will head to Mascareignes.

Bakung will potter around its present area for a few days then on December 16, it will intensify rapidly into a 150 kph cyclone.

The chances of it hitting Mauritius is remote now. Only the Europeans support this track. The Americans predict a stronger storm which will go straight south and embrace the Westerlies and perish around December 22-23.