December 30, 2014: Today's Forecasts In A Nut-Shell

LATEST XWF-WEATHER FORECASTS: A SUMMARY

Depression 95B has proved to have more stamina than expected. It is braving the cold waters as it ascends the latitudes in the Bay of Bengal. Likely to dissipate by January 2, 2015. Rains expected in east coast of India and Bangladesh.

Jangmi will not intensify much but will reach Thailand as a rain-maker. 

Kate goes strong as a category 3 hurricane tearing down the S Indian Ocean. Will start weakening soon.

North West Australia faces Cyclone Lam on January 6, 2015. Even Perth will be affected.

The Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, Reunion) will have a depression first (Or a cyclone) than may be a big cyclone on January 15-16, 2015.

Bay of Bengal Depression 95B: Will Peter Out In Three Days, But Heavy Rains In Coastal Andhra, Odisha.

Update: December 29, 2014

As expected depression 95B that is hovering around in the south-west Bay of Bengal will not intensify into a cyclonic storm. It will potter around in the sea and dissipate in the next 72 hours.

The winter is inconducive to 95B to intensify any further. It is at presently sniffing around looking for avenues that will help it grow. But the waters up north in the Bay are colder hence it will just move around in the Bay and then dissipate.

Contrary to what the GFS forecast believes 95B will move north along the coast and even throw up cyclone speed winds on January 1, 2014 when it will be near the Odisha coast. The storm will move much closer to the Indian coastline then was earlier expected. So more rains expected, especially in coastal Andhra and Odisha.

About the rainfall it will cause. Not much. At least less than expected. 95B is going to dump most of its precipitation in the sea itself as it is not going to make landfall. But even then it has a lot of energy and so it will throw rain-bearing clouds onto coastal India. Odisha will receive heavy rains in a day or two. Rainfall and winds expected in coastal Tamil Nadu, Andhra, West Bengal and even Bangladesh till January 2, 2014.

See Depression 95B LIVE

See the detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps for more information and forecast.

Infra-Red satellite image of 95B taken at 0530 Hours IST, December 29, 2014.

The Track Path Forecast for 95B. The red line is the GFS forecast. The storm will dissipate in the sea near the Andhra coast on January 1, 2015.

Storm 95B: Bay Of Bengal: No Cyclone, Just A Depression, But A Big Rain-Maker

The Storm 95B which is presently hovering in the Bay of Bengal near the coast of Sri Lanka is unlikely to intensify into a cyclone.

Update: December 27, 2014

Earlier there were expectations that the system would strengthen briefly into a cyclone. But latest forecasts rule out the possibility. The storm will remain a depression but owing to its inner stamina it would move north into the Bay of Bengal. It is likely to dissipate on January 4, 2015, before it makes landfall into Bangladesh.

In the next two days it will drift close to North Sri Lanka (More rains!) and the coast of Tamil Nadu (Rains! Rains!) then move away from the coast and move north. The colder waters of the north Bay of Bengal will not prove conducive for it and and the depression will start weakening (If it had been June or September, it would have turned into a roaring cyclone!).

But it is a depression and so will throw up some winds (30-50 kph) in North Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. And of course, the rains. For the expected rainfall from this depression see the Rainfall Forecast Map below.

We can see from the forecast map (The figures are in inches) that depression 95B is going to bring very heavy rainfall (25 inches) to coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also heavy rains (5-10 inches) are expected in northern Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu (Including Chennai), Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Rains are also likely in coastal Bangladesh by January 4, 2015.

See detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

CMC Model Predicts A Cyclone!

The esteemed Canadian Model still remains bullish on the depression. It expects the storm to intensify into big cyclone and hit Bangladesh on January 1, 2015. Something like the energetic cyclone Kate which is ripping across the waters of south Indian Ocean as we speak.

But we take this prediction with a big pinch of salt. The possibility of a big bad storm emerging from 95B seems remote.

The same model predicts two cyclones forming in the south Indian Ocean in the next one week. One hits Rodrigues Island (Mascarene Islands) on January 4, 2015. (Surprisingly even the NAVGEM Model supports this prediction) And another hitting north-west Australia on the same day.

Seems unlikely.

Bay Of Bengal Storm: December 2014: Perhaps A Cyclone Is Coming.

Update: December 26, 2014

Seems like a cyclone is imminent in the Bay of Bengal. Earlier forecasts by leading weather models had said the system would at best be a deep depression. We too were sceptical about a cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal in mid winter. But latest forecasts say other wise. May be we are staring at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours. Climate change? Perhaps.

It is generally agreed by reliable forecast models that the system 95B that hovers presently near Sri Lanka will intensify on December 29-30 into a tropical cyclone. In the next few days the storm is going to go around in a circle. Go south first then curve east, then north then westwards towards the coast of Tamil Nadu. At that point on December 30, 2014, it will intensify into a cyclone. The central minimum pressure (Which is an indicator of how strong a storm is: Hurricane Wilma had a central pressure of 882 mb) will drop into the 990s from the 1002-1004 mb levels.

After that opinions differ. The GFS says it will  travel a few hundred kilometers from the Indian east coast and head to Bangladesh. The European model agrees more or less, only it says it will be a weaker storm. The US Navy's NAVGEM Model is the most bullish on 95B. It gives a central pressure of 993 and the strongest wind speeds. It says the cyclone will move in the Bay of Bengal and hit Andhra coast on December 31, 2014.

It seems Mother Earth wants to start the new year with a bang.

Whatever happens the expected tropical storm is not going to be in the league of Phailin, Hudhud or even Nilofar. One can hardly expect a super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in December. But it might throw out winds of around 80 kph or more. And of course it is going to be a rain-maker. Depends on how it goes. Sri Lanka is getting a deluge right now because of 95B.

In conclusion, we feel system 95B will turn into a tropical cyclone in the next three days, when it is near the coast of Tamil Nadu, but it will start weakening as it ascends the latitudes and experiences the colder waters of the Bay. The moot point is will the IMD christen the storm when it is at its strongest on December 29-30 or will 95B remain an unnamed "deep depression"?

A latest satellite image of 95B taken at 0500 hours GMT, December 26, 2014. (Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The latest track path forecast of Storm 95B. The yellow line is the path prediction by the Canadian GEM Model. The other two are the forecasts by GFS and US Navy's NAVGEM Models.

This chart predicts the intensity of Storm 95B. The forecast is by AVNO, an offshoot of the GFS Model. The expected wind speeds are given in Knots. I knot = 1.85 kilometers per hour (Kph). The chart says the system will turn into a cyclone after 72 hours when its winds will exceed 64 kph.

The IMD remains bearish on chances of a cyclone. It seems we will have to be satisfied with a "deep depression".

Rainfall Prediction Map: How much rain is Storm 95B (Ashobaa?) going to bring and where in the next 8 days?