VARDAH Effect: Chennai, Parts of AP, Tamil Nadu Stare At Floods Dec 12-13

DECEMBER 10, 2016, SATURDAY UPDATE

Our December 9 forecast regarding the track and intensity remains unchanged. Only Tamil Nadu is unlikely to benefit rain wise from this storm. Southern Andhra, parts of Rayalseema and Karnataka will receive most rainfall on December 12-13.

Nellore, Anantpur, Cuddapah and Chittoor districts in Andhra Pradesh. Chitradurga, Tumkur, Bangalore (N & S) districts in Karnataka.

DECEMBER 9, 2016, FRIDAY 

Latest forecasts by reliable forecast models say that owing to Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone VARDAH, southern parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, northern coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chennai may face flooding rains beginning December 12, 2016.

VARDAH is strengthening and moving away from the Andaman Nicobar islands. It is heading now in a west-north-westerly direction. Going by that one may think central Andhra coast will be the target of this storm. Both the American GFS model and US Navy's JTWC think so too.

But come December 11 and the cyclone will dip southward and make landfall bang on the Andhra-Tamil Nadu border coast on late evening of December 12. Hence the chance of a Chennai deluge. We think the storm will bring more rains to Tamil Nadu than to Rayalseema because of the last moment "dip".

At present it a 986 hPa storm. Sustained winds well over 100 km/h. But it will weaken before landfall. 

The districts in Tamil Nadu which may be most affected are Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and Vellore. The Andhra districts of Nellore, Cuddapah and Chittoor will be worst hit.

As NADA Brings NE Monsoon To Tamil Nadu, Tropical Cyclone VARDAH May Hit Andhra Soon

DECEMBER 1, 2016, THURSDAY

The rain gods have awakened at last. The weak tropical storm NADA hovering off the Tamil Nadu coast  is pushing the north east monsoons into southern India. The storm is diffused. It's flails are bringing rainfall even to far flung Andhra Pradesh. 

The JTWC estimates the wind speeds of NADA is 75 km/h, gusts upto 90 km/h. Rains are continuing in coastal Tamil Nadu under its influence. Rains in the state will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Neighbouring Kerala may receive rainfall on December 3, especially Kochi.

Nada will make landfall today evening near Nagapattinam.

Nada is a little boy. Another cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is imminent soon. And it is going to be big, bad and very ugly. Cyclone VARDAH has already been born in the South China Sea. In a day or two it will slip into the Bay of Bengal. Forecast models hint at the possibility of the low pressure intensifying into 975 hPa roaring monster which hit Andhra Pradesh on December 10, 2016.

BAY OF BENGAL DEPRESSION TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO TAMIL NADU: ROANU COMING?

MAY 15, 2016

The low pressure area which has formed off the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka (Termed 91B by NOAA) will intensify soon into a depression and move into Tamil Nadu soon.

Under it's effects the state will witness heavy widespread rainfall for the next 48 hours till Tuesday, May 18. The rains will be accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.

The system may then move into the Bay of Bengal and hit coastal areas of Myanmar and Bangladesh by May 21. The system will intensify further on moving into the sea into a deep depression or even a moderate tropical cyclone, ROANU, on May 22.

It is also possible that cyclone ROANU may hit Bangladesh proper on May 24 and not Myanmar. If this happens windy rainfall is possible on the Odisha, West Bengal coast on May 23, 2016.

Some numerical forecast models suggest the system will meander around Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for the next 3-4 days drenching these states thoroughly.

The MPE satellite image taken at 0530 GMT shows heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka presently. These rains will move into Tamil Nadu by early tomorrow.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

Depression/Tropical Storm possible in Arabian Sea soon

There is a good possibility that a storm system will develop in the Arabian Sea in the coming one week. It is likely to bring rains to western India, Pakistan or Oman. We mention Oman because Arabian Sea storms have had a tendency to veer off towards Oman in recent years.

Bay of Bengal Depression May Intensify Into A Cyclone By May 20

MAY 16, 2016

Though it is not certain but there is good chance that the present Bay of Bengal depression 91B may turn into a tropical cyclone on Friday, May 20, 2016.

Presently the low pressure area has left Sri Lanka and in the next 24 hours will move along the Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rainfall has already stated in southern districts of the state. By tomorrow they will spread to Chennai and adjoining areas.

By May 18, the depression will slide by the Andhra coast. Since it is not expected to move inland, Telangana will receive comparatively less precipitation than the Andhra coast.

By Friday the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone (ROANU). It is not expected to be a very powerful storm. A moderate cyclone with winds of around 80-90 km/h.

Southern coastal Odisha and northern Andhra will face strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The cyclone will rapidly move to Myanmar on May 21-22, 2016.

This scenario is not certain. As some numerical forecast models say the depression may weaken and move to Myanmar.

Only the NAVGEM model predicts a massive cyclone hit on Bangladesh. But at present it seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates 

DEEP DEPRESSION/TROPICAL STORM ROANU TO HIT TAMIL NADU MAY 17, 2016

MAY 13, 2016

STORM WARNING FOR SRI LANKA, TAMIL NADU 

THE low pressure area that has formed southeast of Sri Lanka will intensify into deep depression or possibly tropical cyclone ROANU and hit the coast of Tamil Nadu on May 17, 2016.

This Bay of Bengal storm system is expected by numerical weather prediction models to have a central minimum pressure of 985 hPa by the time it reaches the Tamil coast south of Chennai. That means a moderate storm with sustained winds of 70-80 km/h.

Though US NAVY NAVGEM model foresees a stronger cyclone with a 982 hPa pressure.

Strong winds torrential rain will lash the state from Tuesday. Chennai will be badly affected.

The system is then expected to hug the Indian coast and move into coastal Andhra Pradesh. If this happens, very heavy rains are expected in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh in the coming week.

Heavy showers may start in Tamil Nadu from Monday  itself.

Please note that extreme weather systems like this upcoming depression are very unpredictable by nature. What we have forecast is gleaned from data from global NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. And all the models are not in unanimity about the track of this system.

Some models are foreseeing a vicious cyclone that will move past the Tamil Nadu then Andhra coast onto Bangladesh. Hence please keep in touch with our latest updates. The situation is mercurial at present.

Though the European forecast model ECMWF is more sanguine about the expected storm. It believes it will be a depression, not a tropical cyclone. It predicts a different track for the system than the GFS model. See maps below.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

As regards the future route of the system, there is an alternative possibility. The GFS believes it will weaken into a low pressure area after it swings away from Tamil Nadu into the sea and make landfall into Myanmar later in the week.

Track forecast for Bay of Bengal depression May 2016 by ECMWF and GFS.

Storm 95B: Bay Of Bengal: No Cyclone, Just A Depression, But A Big Rain-Maker

The Storm 95B which is presently hovering in the Bay of Bengal near the coast of Sri Lanka is unlikely to intensify into a cyclone.

Update: December 27, 2014

Earlier there were expectations that the system would strengthen briefly into a cyclone. But latest forecasts rule out the possibility. The storm will remain a depression but owing to its inner stamina it would move north into the Bay of Bengal. It is likely to dissipate on January 4, 2015, before it makes landfall into Bangladesh.

In the next two days it will drift close to North Sri Lanka (More rains!) and the coast of Tamil Nadu (Rains! Rains!) then move away from the coast and move north. The colder waters of the north Bay of Bengal will not prove conducive for it and and the depression will start weakening (If it had been June or September, it would have turned into a roaring cyclone!).

But it is a depression and so will throw up some winds (30-50 kph) in North Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. And of course, the rains. For the expected rainfall from this depression see the Rainfall Forecast Map below.

We can see from the forecast map (The figures are in inches) that depression 95B is going to bring very heavy rainfall (25 inches) to coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also heavy rains (5-10 inches) are expected in northern Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu (Including Chennai), Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Rains are also likely in coastal Bangladesh by January 4, 2015.

See detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

CMC Model Predicts A Cyclone!

The esteemed Canadian Model still remains bullish on the depression. It expects the storm to intensify into big cyclone and hit Bangladesh on January 1, 2015. Something like the energetic cyclone Kate which is ripping across the waters of south Indian Ocean as we speak.

But we take this prediction with a big pinch of salt. The possibility of a big bad storm emerging from 95B seems remote.

The same model predicts two cyclones forming in the south Indian Ocean in the next one week. One hits Rodrigues Island (Mascarene Islands) on January 4, 2015. (Surprisingly even the NAVGEM Model supports this prediction) And another hitting north-west Australia on the same day.

Seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Final Update: Nov 8, 2014: Cyclone Unlikely, Just A Depression On November 13. Heavy Rains Expected.

The expected November 13 storm in the Bay of Bengal that will move into Andhra will not be a cyclone but a depression with 40-50 Kph winds. 

In the last few days reliable forecast models had predicted a big cyclone would hit the Andhra coast on Nov 13. The forecast was the system would move into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand and turn into a cyclone.

But latest forecasts have downgraded the system to a mere depression. In short, no cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The expected system will be at best a depression that would hit the Indian coast on November 13, 2014 with winds of about 40-50 Kph.

But it will bring very heavy rains to southern coastal Andhra, Puducherry and northern Tamil Nadu beginning from Wednesday night and will continue for another 48 hours after that. The system will move over into Karnataka and bring heavy rainfall there too on November 14, 2014. In fact all the Indian southern states will witness precipitation.

But no cyclone as we said earlier. We shall continue to monitor future forecasts by the various computer models and inform you whether there is any possibility of Cyclone Ashobaa. But the chance of the expected system intensifying into a big cyclone is low.

We will keep you updated.

Bay of Bengal In Ferment: Depression [Or Cyclone Priya?] Will Move Into Tamil Nadu November 7

November 7. The system [Cyclone Ashobaa-Priya] about to hit Tamil Nadu

There is massive churning going on in the Bay of Bengal presently (The Northern Indian Ocean has been active this year: Nanauk, Hudhud, Nilofar and now Priya perhaps?]. It has brought heavy rains to Sri Lanka.

But it is going to throw up a deep depression [Or Cyclone] in the first week of November. The system will form off the Tamil Nadu coast and move into the state on November 7, 2014.

Present indications are its going to be a deep depression. But a little more intensification and Cyclone Priya [Ashobaa?] will form.

We will watch the sea closely in the next few days.

Cyclone NILAM Will Bring Heavy Rains To Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Orissa And West Bengal

Projected path of NILAM according to JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Satellite image of Cyclone NILAM at 1130 Hrs, today

We have said before that the present deep depression in the Bay of Bengal is going to start gaining in ferocity and turn into Cyclone NILAM. Well it has strengthened into a cyclone and it has been christened NILAM by the IMD. The cyclone will hit the Tamil Nadu coast south of Chennai tomorrow (Oct. 31, 2012) evening. Coastal areas of both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will face strong gale excess of 80 Kmph.

And the rains. Tamil Nadu and the entire Andhra Pradesh will receive very heavy rains tomorrow and on November 1, 2012. The rains will reach Orissa, Chattisgarh and West Bengal by the 3rd of November, 2012. Chennai is in for  severe drenching in the next two days.

Increasing wind speed

Predicted Track of Cyclone NILAM from oct. 30 (6 PM IST) to Oct. 31 (9 PM IST)

Increasing rainfall

Rainfall prediction map owing to NILAM. Oct. 31, 2012 to Nov 3, 2012

Cyclone Nilam To Hit Chennai Wednesday (October 31, 2012) Evening. VERY HEAVY RAINS IN TN AND AP

Expected path of Cyclone NILAM

Expected Nilam is still a deep depression, but it will start intensifying and turn into a cyclone by today (Tuesday, 30 Nov. 2012) evening. It will then hit the coast just below Chennai by tomorrow (Wednesday, October 31, 2012) evening.

Nilam will be a moderate storm with wind speeds exceeding 62 KMPH at the least. Though gale winds may touch the 100 KMPH mark. Nothing to sneeze at that.

Lots of rain. It must be raining in Chennai and the rest of Tamil Nadu now. The rains are going to increase all the time. Expect a deluge.

There will be heavy rains in Andhra Pradesh too over the days

Increasing rainfall

Rainfall prediction map. Cyclone NILAM. October 30 to November 3, 2012

WHAT THE INDIAN MET DEPT. SAYS ABOUT CYCLONE NILAM OCTOBER 30, 2012 0530 HOURS


The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal   remained   practically stationary  and
lay centred at  0530 hours IST of today, the 30th October, 2012  over southwest Bay of Bengal
near lat. 9.0°N and long. 82.0°E, about 500 Km south­southeast of Chennai. The system would
intensify further into a  cyclonic storm and move northwestwards for some more time and then
cross north Tamilnadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast  between Nagapattinam and
Nellore by 31st October, 2012 afternoon/evening.

Latest image of Cyclone Nilam

Tropical Storm NILAM To Hit Tamil Nadu On October 31, 2012

 It is certain that the deep depression is hovering around in the Bay of Bengal. It is going to intensify further and move towards the Tamil Nadu coast in the next few hours.And hit it on October 31, 2012. The moot point is will it be strong enough to be christened NILAM by the stingy IMD?

Some forecasts say that the system is going to throw gale winds>>> 80-90 KMPH. Now that definitely means a cyclone. It should get the name NILAM. But IMD? Anyway.

Increasing wind speeds

Projected Path of Expected Cyclone NILAM  (October 29-October 31, 2012)

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.50 N and longitude 84.00 E, about 550 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 300 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) is gong to intensify rapidly and hit the Tamil Nadu coast south of Chennai on October 31, 2012.

Very strong winds and lots of rains. So strong is the system that in the next few days it will move along northward and bring rains (Not only Tamil Nadu) to Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.

Folks, bad girl NILAM is coming!

Increasing rainfall

Rain Prediction Map Oct. 30-Nov 3, 2012 Owing to Expected Cyclone NILAM

Cyclone NILAM May form In The Bay of Bengal: Cross Tamil Nadu Coast Oct. 31, 2012

The Bay of Bengal storm touches the Tamil Nadu coast south of Chennai. October 31, 2012

The Bay of Bengal seems to have grabbed NILAM from the Arabian Sea. Latest forecasts say NILAM will now form in the Bay of Bengal.and may cross the Tamil Nadu coast on October 31, 2012.

But the scenario is fuzzy right now. The expected storm may or may not be of Cyclone strength (May not be christened NILAM). It may turn out to be just a depression, deep or otherwise.

And as a result, lots of rains expected in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on October 30-31, 2012

Rain prediction map. Lots of rain in Tamil Nadu on October 31, 2012

WHAT THE JTWC (JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER) SAYS.....

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.

NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

WHAT THE INDIAN MET DEPT SAY (TODAY OCTOBER 28, 2012, 5:30 AM)

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood now lies as a well marked low pressure  area  over  central  parts  of  south Bay  of Bengal  and  neighbourhood. The  associated  upper  air cyclonic   circulation   extends   upto 3.1   Km   above   mean   sea   level.   The   system   may   concentrate  into a depression during next 24 hours.

Indian Southern States In For Rains Till Nov 8, 2011

The Arabian Sea this November has been very disturbed. First it threw up a low pressure which went to the coast of Oman and turned into cyclone Keila. Now forecasts say another low pressure area is expected to build in this sea on Sunday (Nov 6, 2011). Owing to this the four southern states of India are in for rains. Especially affected will be Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and southern Andhra Pradesh. The wet spell is expected to last till Nov 8, 2011. It will dry up once the low pressure system moves away northward.

Rain Forecast Maps

 Rainfall Nov 4, 2011

 Predicted rainfall Nov 5, 2011

 Rainfall Nov 6, 2011

 Rainfall expected Nov 7, 2011. Notice the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea moving northwards

Nov 8, 2011. Kerala gets downpours. The rest of the states are dry. The menacing storm system now approaches the coasts of Oman, Gujarat and Pakistan

Bay Of Bengal Depression To Bring Heavy Rains To Tamil Nadu, Andhra November 13, 14 2011

A low pressure system is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal on November 10, 2011 west of Andaman islands. It will then gain strength and turn into a deep depression and move westward in the next three days. It will make landfall on November 13, 2011 at the coast of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rainfall is likely in these two states on November 13, 14.

Rain Forecast Map

Heavy rains likely on Nov 13, 14 in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

Wind Speed Map Nov 13

November 13, 2011. The deep depression will make landfall. Quite strong winds

Bay Of Bengal Storm November 2011 Update: Just a Low Pressure?

 We had predicted a big storm in the Bay of Bengal which would hit the Indian coast on November 11, 2011.  The latest forecasts are rather dampening. It will be a low pressure or may be a deep depression that will hit the Indian coast at the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on November 11th, 2011. Not very strong winds. But very heavy rains likely on November 12th, 2011 in north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh. Especially the areas near the coast.


Still 12-13 days to go. Anything can happen.....

Rain Forecast Map

November 12, 2011. Heavy rains lash coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh

Wind Speed Forecast Map

November 11, 2011. Not a big cyclone. May be a deep depression about to enter the Indian coast