Cyclone Thane Is Coming! Will It Hit Karachi? Or Oman? On December 1, 2011. Or May be Gujarat?

TROPICAL STORM 5A UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2011 

  The latest infra-red image of Tropical Storm 5A

The two forecast models still differ as to the fate of tropical storm 5A (Thane)...

The GFS says it will hit Karachi on December 1, 2011. According to this forecast Oman will not be affected but Karachi is in for it. 

GFS forecast. 5A hits Karachi on December 1, 2011

The European models say that it will go to the Omani coast and die down there. It will give lots of rains to Oman from November 30 to December 4, 2011. Southern Iran and Gwadar area in Pakistan too will receive some precipitation

EFS forecast. Rains approach Oman on Nov 30, 2011

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The Arabian Sea this year is even more boisterous than her sister the Bay Of Bengal. It threw up storm Keila. Then another depression a few days later; both of which drenched Oman in the earlier part of November, 2011.


Now another storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast. Cyclone "Thane" has been born. Presently it hovers in the Arabian Sea about 100 nautical miles south of Cochin.


Forecast models differ as to where it will make landfall.


 The GFS model says it will hit the Pakistani coast at Karachi on December 1, 2011. It will then weaken and move inwards into Pakistan bringing rainfall to even Lahore!


The EFS model says it will kiss the Omani coast then hit land on the Pakistan-Iran border on December 1, 2011. According to this forecast Oman is for a drenching on Nov 30 and Dec 1. Very, very heavy rainfall. And very strong winds.


Let us see what happens. I tend to put my trust in the GFS forecast. Karachi in for a big, big storm and lots of rains on December 1, 2011.


Watch out, Karachi! Storms are by nature very unpredictable. May be 05A may take a liking to Gujarat! It may curve a little more and may be hit Gujarat! 


Let us wait and watch.

(CLICK TO ENLARGE) Projected path of Storm 05A (May be named Thane) according to JTWC

 GFS forecast. November 27, 2011. Storm 5A slowly gathers strength and moves north-westward.

 GFS forecast. November 30, 2011. 5A is big and moves past Gujarat and heads towards Pakistan

GFS forecast. December 1, 2011. 5A curves in and about to hit Karachi

EFS Forecast. Storm 5A nudges Oman. Decmeber 1, 2011. Lots of rains and wind in Oman November 30-December 1, 2011.

Arabian Sea Storm Heading To South Omani Coast: Heavy Rains In Pakistan Nov 9-10, 2011

Latest image of Storm 4A. It is nudging the Oman coast. Surprisingly Pakistan will get most of the rains. On Nov 9-10, 2011

The low pressure system, as predicted by us, has formed in the Arabian Sea. According to the Indian Met Dept. it is likely to be become stronger. It presently lies 10.5N 67.6E, Approximately 595 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST of Mumbai, India. Forecasts say it will move in a NNW direction towards the coast of Southern Oman. By that time it may strengthen into a depression. Heavy rains are likely to lash Oman on the 8th, 9th and 10th of November.

The storm will start weakening on the 11th of November and start slithering down into the Gulf of Aden.

Like Keila this low pressure area (or a depression) will hover around the southern Oman coast. It is expected to reach Oman on Nov 8, 2011. The towns to get the most rains? Dawwah, Kalban, Khaluf, Duqm, Sawqirah, Sharbatat, Marmul, Sadh and Salalah.

Muscat will get rains on Nov 8, 9. The coastal areas of the country are likely to get downpours till the 11th of November. Especially the central coastal areas; they will get the heaviest falls. Pakistan may get a shower on the 10th of Nov.

Oman is in for a very wet spell.

Pakistan is for heavy rains on Nov 9-10. Balochistan and Sindh. Karachi too.

WHAT THE JTWC (JOnt Typhoon Warning Center) SAYS ABOUT THE LOW PRESSURE

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 72.0E

IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.......THE POTENTIAL

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE

NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 

Rain Prediction Maps For Oman Nov 8-11, 2011

 Nov 7, 2011

 Nov 8, 2011. Muscat gets rains as the storm approaches the Omani coast

 Nov 9. 2011. Rains continue in Muscat. Coastal Oman gets heavy falls.

 Nov 10, 2011. Very heavy rains

 Nov 11, 2011

Nov 12, 2011. The system slinks down to the Gulf of aden

Another Forecast Model Says Arabian Sea Storm To Go To Gulf Of Aden

Disappointing forecast for those of us in India, Pakistan and Oman who love storms and rains. The NOGAPS forecast system predicts that a storm system will form in the Arabian Sea on Nov 6, 2011. In the place we have forecast; about 1000 Kms NW of Maldives. 

But this forecast says (Alas!) the low pressure system will moves towards the Gulf of Aden and reach it on the 10th of Nov., 2011!

I feel a little down, I admit. But I have found that the GFS forecast system is generally more accurate than the others. And GFS forecasts the storm system will come towards the seas of Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat.

Rain Forecast Map According To NOGAPS Forecast

 NOGAPS Forecast: Nov 6, 2011. The low-pressure area is formed

 NOGAPS Forecast: Nov 7 2011. The low pressure system moves towards the Gulf Of Aden

NOGAPS Forecast: Nov 10, 2011. The system reaches the Gulf Of Aden. Horn of Africa gets heavy rains

Bay Of Bengal Depression To Bring Heavy Rains To Tamil Nadu, Andhra November 13, 14 2011

A low pressure system is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal on November 10, 2011 west of Andaman islands. It will then gain strength and turn into a deep depression and move westward in the next three days. It will make landfall on November 13, 2011 at the coast of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rainfall is likely in these two states on November 13, 14.

Rain Forecast Map

Heavy rains likely on Nov 13, 14 in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

Wind Speed Map Nov 13

November 13, 2011. The deep depression will make landfall. Quite strong winds

Arabian Sea (Nov 2011) Deep Depression To Bring Rains To Oman Till November 10

A rather persistent Deep Depression has formed in the Arabian Sea near the coast of Oman. (Folks of Oman must be enjoying the cloudy weather at present!) Now this system is going to stick around the Omani coast for the next eight days or so. Result? Rains in Oman for the next ten days. Not too heavy but substantial. As a result of the system southern Pakistan will get a drenching from November 1- 4, 2011. Especially affected will be area near Gwadar, though Karachi will get some rains too.


Now this Deep depression will gain strength and almost reach cyclone level around Nov 4, 2011. But it is unlikely that it will turn into a big bad cyclone. So windy weather on the coast of Oman till November 7th. And rains too. The coastal areas will receive more precipitation. But Muscat too is going to get wet on November 1-2, 2011. May be later also.


In short, a rare wet spell for Oman in the next 8 days. Enjoy it!

Rainfall Forecast Maps for Oman In November, 2011

 November 1, 2011. Oman gets its first rains. Muscat too.

Nov 6, 2011. More rains in Oman

Rain Forecast Map Southern Pakistan Nov 2011

Southern Pakistan coast gets a deluge. Rains expected here Nov 1-4, 2011

Wind Speed Forecast Map Arabian Sea Depression November 2011

On Nov 4, 2011, the depression will gain strength and almost become a cyclone. But it will not. It will start dissipating and the remnants of the system will drift to Oman and give it more rains on November 6, 7

Tropical Storm To Form In Arabian Sea Near Kerala November 3, 2011

The northern Indian ocean is turbulent this year in Oct.-Nov. A low pressure area will bring heavy rains to south Pakistan on November 2, 2011. A deep depression in the Bay of Bengal will hit coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh November 11, 2011. AND.....!

A tropical storm is likely to form near the Kerala coast on November 3rd, 2011. It will start as a low pressure area and then move northwards. When it nears the Goa coast it will intensify into a cyclone. It will then move north-westerly in the Arabian Sea, hover around and slowly dissipate and drift towards Oman bringing some rains on Nov. 12-14, 2011.

Present Forecasts say it will not touch Gujarat (rains likely in Gujarat under its influence though. Especially on Nov. 7-8, 2011). Nor will it hit Pakistan or Oman. But hard to say for sure. Keep reading this site...

Wind Speed Forecast Maps

 November 5, 2011. The low pressure system near the Goa coast has gained strength and turned into a cyclone

November 3, 2011. The low pressure system is born near Kerala coast. Notice that the earlier system is lashing south Pakistan

Arabian Sea Low Pressure (Oct.-Nov. 2011) Shifts Course: Will Only Touch Oman Balochistan In For a Deluge

We had predicted quite substantial rain in Oman from 31 st October, 2011. Well, the Arabian Sea Low Pressure system that was to bring the precipitation is going to shift its course slightly. It will bring rains to Oman but in lesser areas and in less amounts. The coastal areas are going to get a drenching. Especially the island of Kalban and Dawwah. Sur and Al Kamil will get good rains too. But it is Balochistan in Pakistan which will receive the deluge from November 1, 2011. All of southern Pakistan (Sindh too)  is in for rains. Karachi on November 3rd, 2011.
(Oman will receive more rains later, till Nov. 15, as another low pressure area in the Arabian Sea will form on November 3, 2011. Read about it here)

Rain Forecast Maps

 Late Monday night. October 31, 2011. Rains to lash Oman coastal areas

November 1-2, 2011. Southern Pakistan gets a deluge. Karachi gets rainfall too.

Oman To Receive Rainfall October End 2011: South pakistan From Nov. 4, 2011

Dry Oman is in for a very wet spell. Thanks to a  low pressure area which will come visiting from the Arabian Sea. When? By 31st October, 2011. They are likely to continue for 3-4 days. Then the system will drench southern Iran and then finally the Gwadar (November 3, 2011) area of southern Pakistan. Then the system will fizzle out.

The areas on Oman to get most rainfall are Kalban, Dawwah, Al Kamil and Sur.

Rain Forecast Maps 

 November 30, 2011. Rains arrive in Oman

 Nov 1, 2011. Rains will go on for 3-4 days in Oman

 Nov. 4, 2011. Gwadar gets drenched

Tropical Storm (Bay Of Bengal) To Affect Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala November 4, 2011

The latest forecast for the expected cyclone in the Bay of Bengal says it is to be a weaker storm and it is hit Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala much earlier than expected. November 4th, 2011. That is when it will touch Lanka, and the Indian states. The remarkable thing about this storm is that it is going to traverse TWO seas. From the Bay of Bengal it will move over into the Arabian Sea. It will weaken and than again gain some strength around November 8, 2011.


Possible threat to Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman? Present forecasts say no. The storm will move upwards to the Karnataka coast and then go westward towards the African coast.


Wait for further updates.

The Projected Path Of the Cyclone

Maps show wind speeds

 November 4, 2011. Cyclone about to touch Sri Lanka

 Nov. 5, 2011. By next day it moves through Lanka and touches the southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala

 November 8, 2011. It gather strength near the Karnataka coast

Nov. 9, 2011. It starts moving westwards.