May 2016: Extreme Weather Forecast And Possibilities, Updates

WET MONTH FOR OMAN AHEAD?

May 5, 2016

Oman and perhaps the UAE are in for a stormy wet month if forecast models are to be believed. By the last week of May, a low pressure/depression is likely to move into central Oman bringing heavy rains. 

Then by June 10, 2016 a powerful tropical cyclone may hit northern Oman. This storm is likely to form around June 5, 2016 near the Kerala-Karnataka coast of India.

These predictions are based on the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model created by the US agency CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and thus are nothing to sneeze at.

Though one cannot say 100% that a cyclone will hit Oman, since the CFS forecast has been persistently foretelling a storm since the last 10 days, there is a good possibility of a tropical cyclone in early June developing in the Arabian Sea. Where it goes remains to be seen.

US AGENCY CPC SAYS NO CYCLONE TILL MAY 17

May 4, 2016

The CPC, the US agency says in it's latest forecast that though there will be increased rainfall in southern Arabian Sea, a cyclone is unlikely till May 17.

Please note that the CFS model has been developed by the CPC.

It says....

"During Week-2, the CFS and ECMWF models agree that above-median rainfall will continue across the Horn of Africa and western Indian Ocean. Above-median rainfall forecast across far southern India, Sri Lanka, and parts of the central Indian Ocean is related to the potential for a developing MJO by mid-May. 

Tropical cyclone development is unlikely across the global tropics during the next two weeks. This inactive period for tropical cyclone genesis is typical for early May."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

STORMS BREWING IN ARABIAN SEA IN END MAY
May 4, 2016

Latest CFS weekly forecasts indicate intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman after May 15, 2016. It is to be seen if it throws out a cyclone.

MONSOON WILL PUSH IN AROUND MAY 15
May 4, 2016

Below is the GFS forecast for May 15, 2016. It shows the high altitude 150 hPa winds. The easterly jet stream has been pushed up and the monsoon winds are arriving in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UNLIKELY TILL MAY 22

May 4, 2016

The chances of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal till May 22 seems remote. The CFS which had been hinting at a Arabian Sea storm by May end says today in its data that a cyclone is now likely in the Bay of Bengal in mid June. 

This has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Cyclones are inherently unpredictable. And May-June being storm seasons anything can happen anytime.

FORECAST TILL MAY 22

MAY 3, 2016

This is from IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that

➢Subsequent to the likely rain spell over major parts of India during the first pentad,  heat wave conditions are likely to re-develop over parts of east & central India (viz., Gangetic west Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha and Telangana) during 7th – 11th May.  This is likely to intensify and spread over to cover major parts of central and adjoining peninsular India and northwest India, during the period, 12th – 21st May.

➢Cyclogenesis is un-likely over the north Indian ocean during 2nd – 21st May.

➢However, cross equatorial flow in the lower troposphere is likely to reach south bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 15th May.

➢Likely eastward propagation of  the convective phase of MJO across the Indian ocean may cause a pre-monsoon rainfall peak, with above normal rainfall activity over extreme south peninsula during 12th – 21st May.

➢Western Disturbances are likely to cause above normal precipitation over western Himalayan region during 2nd – 6th May and 12th – 16th May.

CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT AT MONTHS END?

May 2

Is a tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea?

Yes, if the Climate Forecast System, run by an US agency is to believed. 

The CFS though a climate forecast model gives daily updates. And it's data has been suggesting a cyclone forming near the Kerala coast around May 23, 2016 for the last few days.

The tropical cyclone ROANU will be a massive one and it will traverse northward in the Arabian Sea for a week.

At one time it seems it will hit Oman but it will swerve and hit Pakistan on June 1, 2016.

At present it is a mere possibility.

Support from weather models like the GFS and ECMWF is awaited.

Though the GFS in today's forecast data says a low pressure is likely to develop near the Indian Kerala coast on May 18.

Cyclone NILOFAR: How Will It Affect India and Pakistan?

Latest Infra-Red Satellite Image of Cyclone Nilofar : 1200 HRS GMT, October 29, 2014

The lady is in the Arabian Sea throwing out winds howling at 200-230 Kph. Cyclone Nilofar is slowly inching towards land. The lands affected will be India and Pakistan.

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LATEST UPDATE: The cyclone will start weakening from tomorrow (Thursday)

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The winds will be worst at the Kachchh and Sindh coast. The IMD says they will be 80-100 Kph. That is much better than 200 Kph. Look what Hudhud did to Vizag.

The winds will start from Thursday afternoon and continue till Saturday. Worst will be on Friday. Karachi is in for a battering with 100 Kph winds. Dwarka and Kachchh districts will get off with 60-80 Kph winds. But northern Kachchh (Koteshwar) will get a 100 Kph hammering.

The ports of Okha, Jamnagar (Bedi and Sikka), Navlakhi, Kandla, Mundra, Kandla will feel winds of 50-70 Kph on Friday

 Nilofar is going to bring rains. The heaviest will be in Sindh (Karachi included). Kachchh will get off with slightly less rain. Vagaries of nature!

Heaviest rains are expected in Sindh (SE parts, Karachi included). Flooding may occur.

In India rains are expected in Kachchh, west and north Rajasthan (heaviest around Bikaner and Jaisalmer). Showers expected even in Jaipur, Haryana and Delhi on November 1-2, 2014.

Rain Forecast Map: Cyclone Nilofar: From now till November 2, 2014

Total rainfall from Cyclone Nilofar: Where and how much?

Cyclone Nilofar Will Weaken Before Hitting Kachchh-Sindh: Strong Winds To Lash Oman Tomorrow

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Cyclone Nilofar on Thursday evening. It will be at its strongest then. After that it will rapidly weaken before landfall

Nilofar cyclone may throw up awesome winds of 200-240 Kph tomorrow but by the time it makes landfall at Kachchh-Sindh it will weaken considerably.

Both the GFS forecast and JTWC forecast agree that the storm will weaken before landfall.

The GFS says landfall will be on October 31, 2014.

JTWC says it will be on November 1, 2014.

Both agree that at landfall winds will be about 65-90 Kph.

Nilofar will bring rains to Kachchh (Gujarat) and southern Sindh. Karachi is in for rains and winds of 80 Kph on October 31-November 1.

What about Oman? Cyclone Nilofar is not going to hit Oman. It will receive some rains and strong winds of 80-90 Kph tomorrow.

The ECMWF Model Says Nanauk will move north and weaken till it hits Pakistan

There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future of cyclone Nanauk.

The ECMWF model says the storm will start moving north towards Pakistan coast and start weakening. By the time it reaches Pakistan coast near Karachi it will be a low pressure area. So south coastal Pakistan can expect a deluge from Friday, June 13, 2014.

CYCLONE NANAUK IS COMING! To Hit Oman, Pakistan or Gujarat Around June 5-6, 2014?

LATEST UPDATE MAY 27, 2014

US Navy Weather Experts Say A Massive Tropical Storm Will Hit Central Oman On June 2, 2014. 

READ MORE>>>>

Cyclone Nanauk as seen On June 4, 2014

The North Indian Ocean is infamous for throwing up awful tropical storms in June (and also September-October) every year. It is not going to disappoint us this year too. 

Cyclone NANAUK is coming! It is the Arabian Sea who is going to mother the storm. Latest forecasts say that the storm is going to take birth off the coast of Cochin on May 31, 2014. It will start as a low pressure area (as all storms do) and then start gaining strength and move out in the Arabian Sea in a North-Westerly direction initially.

That is the general direction towards Oman. But after a couple of days it will start veering away from Oman and start moving in a northerly direction. So it is to be seen where Cyclone NANAUK will hit. Pakistan or the Indian state of Gujarat?

It is early days. It might hit Oman.

Let us wait and watch.

Forecast Map: Animated path of expected cyclone Nanauk from May 31, 2014 to June 4, 2014

LATEST UPDATE MAY 27, 2014

US Navy Weather Experts Say A Massive Tropical Storm Will Hit Central Oman On June 2, 2014. 

READ MORE>>>>

MAY 2, 2013 CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE : Arabian Sea and Maybe Mumbai Now!

We have said yesterday that the north Indian Ocean is going to spawn a cyclone around May 10, 2013.

Well, yesterday it was Bay of Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Today it is Arabian Sea and target Mumbai.

Mumbai rarely gets hit by tropical cyclones, so it is still early times to say anything. Arabian Sea storms generally hit Gujarat, Pakistan or the Oman coast.

Anyway for those interested, here is the forecasted path of Cyclone Mahasen.

Forecasted path of Cyclone Mahasen. From May 8, 2013 (near the Kerala coast) to May 12, 2013 (hitting the Konkan coast)

Arabian Sea Low Pressure (Oct.-Nov. 2011) Shifts Course: Will Only Touch Oman Balochistan In For a Deluge

We had predicted quite substantial rain in Oman from 31 st October, 2011. Well, the Arabian Sea Low Pressure system that was to bring the precipitation is going to shift its course slightly. It will bring rains to Oman but in lesser areas and in less amounts. The coastal areas are going to get a drenching. Especially the island of Kalban and Dawwah. Sur and Al Kamil will get good rains too. But it is Balochistan in Pakistan which will receive the deluge from November 1, 2011. All of southern Pakistan (Sindh too)  is in for rains. Karachi on November 3rd, 2011.
(Oman will receive more rains later, till Nov. 15, as another low pressure area in the Arabian Sea will form on November 3, 2011. Read about it here)

Rain Forecast Maps

 Late Monday night. October 31, 2011. Rains to lash Oman coastal areas

November 1-2, 2011. Southern Pakistan gets a deluge. Karachi gets rainfall too.

Keila Is Coming Today! Will Hit Pakistan Coast Monday (June 13, 2011) Evening

Keila Is Coming! Finally! She will awake from her 'hibernation', gain strength and hit the Saurashtra coast by today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening. Keila will be a little girl. A cyclone with wind speeds of 80+ Kmph. Though she might have her nasty spells. 


Contrary to earlier predictions Keila is going to enter the Saurashtra coast more then expected before. It is also going to hit the area around Karachi (Monday, June 13, 2011) evening bang on. It will then peter out  Wednesday (June 15, 2011) near the Pakistan coast (Gwadar area).


The dampener is that another prediction model, EFS says the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is going to fizzle out soon. Not even touch the Saurshtra coast. The forecast in this article is based on the GFS model. I generally prefer the GFS. EFS, I feel, is too timid at times.

LATEST JTWC BULLETIN

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ....THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE LATEST XTREME FORECASTS

• Keila will touch the Saurashtra coast today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening near the Diu-Veraval stretch.

• The coastal towns of Diu, Veraval, Pobandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra, Mandvi will see high speed winds. 80+ Kmph. Interior Saurashtra will have lower winds. 50+ Kmph.

• Keila will hit the Pakistan coast on Monday (June 13, 2011). Including Karachi.High speed winds of 80+ Kmph.

• The storm will subside on Wednesday near Gwadar.

• Heavy showers are expected on the coastal areas of Saurashtra and in Karachi.

EXPECTED PATH OF CYCLONE KEILA

 Saturday Night. June 11, 2011. Keila touches Saurashtra coast

 Monday (June 13, 2011) Keila passes Kutch.

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) morning (Local time). Keila reaches Karachi

Wednesday (June 15, 2011) evening. End of Keila near Gwadar.

Tropical Storm To Hit Saurashtra Friday (June 10, 2011) Noon.

The present low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is likely to move north towards the Saurashtra coast and turn into a deep depression by the time it touches Diu at the southern tip of the peninsula. It will continue as a depression during the following two days as it moves along the coastal areas. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) it will  intensify rapidly into a cyclone. It will be leaving Gujarat waters by then. I guess it will be christened as "Keila" then. It will skim coastal Pakistan till Tuesday (June 14, 2011) when it will make landfall at Gwadar, near the Pakistan-southern Iran border. It will dissipate soon after.


WHAT THE JTWC SAYS (LATEST)

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 18.7N 69.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 
LATEST ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM FORECAST
The low pressure presently standing stationary west of Mumbai will slowly start moving north. By the time it touches the Saurashtra (India) coast Friday (June 10, 2011) morning it will have turned into a deep depression.
It will move along the Saurashtra coast for the next two days. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) when it leaves Indian waters near Dwarka, it will intensify rapidly into a cyclone.
This cyclone, which will be named "Keila", will skim along the Pakistani coast and only make landfall at Gwadar in Balochistan om June 14, Tuesday. After which it will dissipate on the Balochistan-southern Iran border.
All the coastal towns in India; Diu, Verval, Porbandar, Dwarka and Karachi in Pakistan will see high speed winds. 80+Kmph. 
Fishermen in both Gujarat and Sindh are warned not to venture into the sea from Friday (June 10, 2011) to Tuesday (June 14, 2011). The storm will mostly be moving in the sea so the winds there will be much more than the land areas. Wind speeds in the seas near the Gujarat and Sindh coast will be very high. 150+ Kmph.
PREDICTED PATH OF THE STORM

 Friday noon. Tropical depression touches the Saurashtra coast

 Saturday (June 11, 2011) morning. Depression weakens a little and moves along the coast

 Sunday (June 12, 2011) late night. Keila gains strength rapidly

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) noon. Keila hits Gwadar

Wednesday night (June 15, 2011) The end of Keila.