Uncertainty Continues In Northern Indian Ocean Weather

MAY 21, 2017, SUNDAY

As the southwest monsoon marshals its forces for an Indian entry into Kerala, doubts remain as to what will be the arrival like. Will it be steady, undeterred by a tropical cyclone gulping away some of its moisture and stamina? Or will an Arabian Sea tropical cyclone snatch away some its momentum as it veers off tangentially to Oman?

A Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea storm is beneficial for monsoon rains in India if the system makes landfall into the indian coast. It acts as a locomotive which pulls along the rains into the country. A cyclone going to Myanmar or Oman is not conducive for Indian monsoon. They suck away considerable amount of the monsoon's energy and from an Indian perspective counterproductive.

Meanwhile the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are taking us on a wild goose chase. Not only are they not agreeing with one another but contradicting themselves in successive data output.

The GFS was indicating a Bay of Bengal storm yesterday, is predicting an Arabian Sea cyclone today. According to it the storm will start off as a low near the Kerala coast on May 30/31 then intensify into something awful and hit Oman by June 6.

Meanwhile even the stolid, European ECMWF with their much vaunted supercomputers too seem to be confused. Earlier it was predicting an Arabian Sea cyclone going to southern Oman/Yemen. Now it foretells a depression in the Bay of Bengal on May 31 near the Myanmar coast.

Presently the Indian Ocean is in a state of tremendous flux as the approaching rainy system is creating massive turbulence. The utter anarchy of nature is such that even the biggest man made supercomputers are unable to discern any pattern. Simply put the supercomputers cannot make head or tail out of the prevailing situation in the ocean.

That is why we are seeing ever changing contradictory forecasts by the NWP.

The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) believes monsoon will hit Mumbai on June 4, 2017

Early Arabian Sea Monsoon Rains May Drift To Oman

MAY 9, 2017, TUESDAY

Hopes of an early arrival of southwest monsoon this year may be belied. Latest forecast by the sensitive CFS model says it will hit Kerala in early June. Earlier expectations that it may come by May end are dissipating as atmospheric conditions have changed in the last fortnight.

But some predictions remain. The Arabian Sea will go into turbo mode as soon as June sets in. But the scene of action, the ground zero so to speak has changed from the coast near Kerala to south western part of the sea, nearer to Oman.

As May ends the beginning of June will see that portion of the sea turn tumultuous. It will churn out many clusters of powerful thunderstorms powered by the approaching monsoon. From that area of turmoil will emerge one or two tropical depressions/cyclones. These are likely to move to either Oman or Balochistan.

Since this initial burst of monsoon energy will be diverted towards Oman by June 10-12, 2017, the onset of rains on Indian west coast will be delayed. Monsoon may reach Mumbai by June 15-20. The onset over Gujarat may have to wait till June 25.

Though there will be very heavy precipitation in Kerala and Karnataka in early June.

We have wait and see if the expected Arabian Sea storm in early June does go to Oman, or will it change course and steer to Sindh/Gujarat.

It will all start here after May 23-24, 2017. The monsoon will slowly build up off the Somalia coast in the form of violent thunderstorms and torrential downpour in the sea. This will slowly move towards the Indian coast in the next 10 days after that, culminating in a Arabian Sea storm around June 10.

Unlike in 2016, the Bay of Bengal stream of monsoon will come to life almost 10 days after the Arabian Sea springs into action, after June 10, 2017.

Cyclone VARDAH May Intensify Again In Arabian Sea: Rains in S. Oman Dec 19

DECEMBER 13, 2016, TUESDAY 

Cyclone VARDAH may have weakened after it moved into peninsular India but it is not done yet.

In 2-3 days it will move into the Arabian Sea after giving good rains to parts of Karnataka and northern Kerala. If reliable forecast models are to be believed it will then move west in the sea and intensify to a tropical cyclone again on December 17, 2016.

It may then weaken and bring heavy rains to southern Oman on December 19, 2016 as a low pressure system/depression.

Arabian Sea Depression May Hit Oman With Rains On September 25, 2016

SEPTEMBER 10, 2016, SATURDAY 

Forecast models are hinting at the formation of an Arabian Sea low pressure area/depression in the coming days. The American GFS model expects it to form off the Mumbai-Konkan coast on September 19, 2016.

This system may intensify into a deep depression as it nudges the Saurashtra coast and head straight west towards northern Oman, reaching it on around September 24, 2016. 

The GFS only says it will be a depression. But there are still 10-15 days to go and a tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out. 

Other forecast models confirm a low pressure area on Maharashtra on September 19. But they do not attest to the GFS prediction of an Arabian Sea storm. We have to wait a few days for the confirmation. This system will come over from the Bay of Bengal. This is the same cyclonic circulation which is dancing around the eastern coast of India. This is expected to intensify into a low pressure area and move to Maharashtra on September 19-20 via Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Meanwhile a depression will move through Vietnam, Laos, northern Thailand and reach southern Myanmar on September 16. But it may fizzle out after that.

The reasons for the disappointing South Asia monsoon this year are 3-fold. 

>The Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD, is negative. 

>La Niña still continues with her nakhras and refuses to come. Conditions are ENSO neutral.

>The storm maker Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO, had gone for a walk in the Pacific Ocean, so central Pacific Ocean is throwing numerous hurricanes. Though chances are a weak MJO may arrive in the Indian Ocean soon. But this is not confirmed. (See MJO diagram below).

UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 11, 2016

The GFS in its later forecasts now rules out an Arabian Sea depression. But there is a good chance of very heavy precipitation in Konkan, Goa and Mumbai around September 25, 2016. We are talking of 10-20 inches of rain in 2-3 days.

Something is going to happen in the Arabian Sea in the coming days. When forecast models give highly erratic predictions for an area, it rings an alarm bell somewhere.

The different phases of MJO. When it is phase 2,3 the North Indian Ocean throws out tropical cyclones.

Oman, UAE Not Dry This July-October Says US NMME Model

JUNE 8, 2016

The Middle East countries, especially Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and parts of Saudi Arabia will not remain their usual rainless in the coming months in 2016. This is what the American climate forecast model the NMME predicts in its latest forecast issued today for July to October.

............

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

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These countries receive hardly any rains from June to November. The average is a few millimetres in these months. But it is perhaps going to be different this year if the forecast by NMME is to be believed. It predicts an excess of 10-30mm of rainfall in each of the months. Please see the monthly forecast maps below. The figures are millimetres (mm).

For a country practically dry during this time of the year, an inch or two is substantial. Perhaps it will be an overflow from the bumper monsoon expected in India and South Asia this year.

Only October will see a dry period except for parts of Oman. Saudi Arabia will see spells of rainfall from July to September. Especially southern parts of the arid country.

A week earlier the Canadian CANSIPS model forecast had predicted a similar wet scenario for the region. We had said in the article......"Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016."

We shall continue giving updates for Oman, UAE and Qatar. Not only seasonal forecasts but track developments if they happen. We mean a tropical cyclone or an Arabian Sea low pressure area wandering off towards the region.

Latest Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast: Good Rains In West, South India, Oman, UAE

JUNE 1, 2016

The June 1, that is the latest monsoon forecast by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's CANSIPS climate model for India, South Asia and Middle East in 2106 is out.

The monthly forecasts for 2016 is given in the maps below. Green color denotes above average rainfall. Orange equals below average. White colour in the map means normal rains. 

It has good news for western and southern India. Rajasthan, Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra are in for bountiful rainfall with average or above average precipitation in June-September. Rains in Karnataka will be good except for a lean patch in June.

The bad news is for central and eastern states of India. Odisha will be worst hit with deficient rains in all the monsoon months. All the eastern states, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh can expect abysmal rains. July and September will be especially poor.

Turning to Pakistan, it will receive very good rains in all the monsoon months.

Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016. 

Bangladesh except for a surfeit in July will have below average rains this year. Myanmar will see very dry July and September.

Forecast for June: Very dry Odisha and Konkan.

July forecast: Handsome rains in Gujarat and four southern states

August forecast: Gujarat and Andhra score high rain scores

September forecast: Very wet Gujarat, Kerala, Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Andhra. Dry Odisha and West Bengal.

May 2016: Extreme Weather Forecast And Possibilities, Updates

WET MONTH FOR OMAN AHEAD?

May 5, 2016

Oman and perhaps the UAE are in for a stormy wet month if forecast models are to be believed. By the last week of May, a low pressure/depression is likely to move into central Oman bringing heavy rains. 

Then by June 10, 2016 a powerful tropical cyclone may hit northern Oman. This storm is likely to form around June 5, 2016 near the Kerala-Karnataka coast of India.

These predictions are based on the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model created by the US agency CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and thus are nothing to sneeze at.

Though one cannot say 100% that a cyclone will hit Oman, since the CFS forecast has been persistently foretelling a storm since the last 10 days, there is a good possibility of a tropical cyclone in early June developing in the Arabian Sea. Where it goes remains to be seen.

US AGENCY CPC SAYS NO CYCLONE TILL MAY 17

May 4, 2016

The CPC, the US agency says in it's latest forecast that though there will be increased rainfall in southern Arabian Sea, a cyclone is unlikely till May 17.

Please note that the CFS model has been developed by the CPC.

It says....

"During Week-2, the CFS and ECMWF models agree that above-median rainfall will continue across the Horn of Africa and western Indian Ocean. Above-median rainfall forecast across far southern India, Sri Lanka, and parts of the central Indian Ocean is related to the potential for a developing MJO by mid-May. 

Tropical cyclone development is unlikely across the global tropics during the next two weeks. This inactive period for tropical cyclone genesis is typical for early May."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

STORMS BREWING IN ARABIAN SEA IN END MAY
May 4, 2016

Latest CFS weekly forecasts indicate intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman after May 15, 2016. It is to be seen if it throws out a cyclone.

MONSOON WILL PUSH IN AROUND MAY 15
May 4, 2016

Below is the GFS forecast for May 15, 2016. It shows the high altitude 150 hPa winds. The easterly jet stream has been pushed up and the monsoon winds are arriving in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UNLIKELY TILL MAY 22

May 4, 2016

The chances of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal till May 22 seems remote. The CFS which had been hinting at a Arabian Sea storm by May end says today in its data that a cyclone is now likely in the Bay of Bengal in mid June. 

This has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Cyclones are inherently unpredictable. And May-June being storm seasons anything can happen anytime.

FORECAST TILL MAY 22

MAY 3, 2016

This is from IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that

➢Subsequent to the likely rain spell over major parts of India during the first pentad,  heat wave conditions are likely to re-develop over parts of east & central India (viz., Gangetic west Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha and Telangana) during 7th – 11th May.  This is likely to intensify and spread over to cover major parts of central and adjoining peninsular India and northwest India, during the period, 12th – 21st May.

➢Cyclogenesis is un-likely over the north Indian ocean during 2nd – 21st May.

➢However, cross equatorial flow in the lower troposphere is likely to reach south bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 15th May.

➢Likely eastward propagation of  the convective phase of MJO across the Indian ocean may cause a pre-monsoon rainfall peak, with above normal rainfall activity over extreme south peninsula during 12th – 21st May.

➢Western Disturbances are likely to cause above normal precipitation over western Himalayan region during 2nd – 6th May and 12th – 16th May.

CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT AT MONTHS END?

May 2

Is a tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea?

Yes, if the Climate Forecast System, run by an US agency is to believed. 

The CFS though a climate forecast model gives daily updates. And it's data has been suggesting a cyclone forming near the Kerala coast around May 23, 2016 for the last few days.

The tropical cyclone ROANU will be a massive one and it will traverse northward in the Arabian Sea for a week.

At one time it seems it will hit Oman but it will swerve and hit Pakistan on June 1, 2016.

At present it is a mere possibility.

Support from weather models like the GFS and ECMWF is awaited.

Though the GFS in today's forecast data says a low pressure is likely to develop near the Indian Kerala coast on May 18.

Arabian Sea depression dissipating fast

Update: October 13, 2015

The Arabian Sea low pressure system is now moving towards northern Oman. But it will dissipate mid sea on October 15 near the coast.

Some rainfall is expected in northern Oman on October 15-16 as a result. There might be some showers in Muscat and Sur. 

UAE will remain dry.

Latest satellite image of Arabian Sea low pressure area

Rain forecast showing total precipitation till October 18. The purple and light blue colours denote heaviest rainfall

Update: October 12, 2015

Arabian Sea system 3A is a low pressure area now.

It will now move WNW in the next 2 days towards Oman and dissipate totally at sea on October 15. It might bring cloudy weather or a drizzle in some areas of northern Oman and Saurashtra. Balochistan may receive light showers because of a western disturbance and not 3A.

Update: October 11, 2015, 1130 hours GMT

Arabian Sea depression is dissipating fast.

It will weaken into a low pressure area by tomorrow. It will dissipate  completely by October 15. Its remains may drift on and bring light showers or just cloudy weather in northern Oman and coastal Balochistan by October 17.

Update: October 11, 2015, 0430 hours GMT

Arabian Sea depression unlikely to turn into a cyclone.

The JTWC says it is not going to intensify much. The system will move north till tomorrow and after that swing away towards Oman reaching the coast near Sur on October 15. It is expected that the depression will start weakening as it changes direction. Some forecast models expect to dissipate on October 13.

Some rainfall is expected in coastal Oman on Thursday. The JTWC expects some rains around Masirah. We think it may extend from Sur to Masirah coastal areas.

It is very likely that the system will dissipate completely mid sea on October 14 without bringing any rains to Oman.

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Latest (0900 hours GMT, October 10) JTWC bulletin believes the Arabian Sea storm may move to central Oman.

This system seems to be proving major forecast models wrong. It is proving the GFS and European models wrong.

Surprisingly the US Navy's NAVGEM and Japanese models are being proved right.

The JTWC seems to be giving the most accurate information.

We will keep you informed.

Gujarat and Sindh are not targets. We repeat. Gujarat and Sindh will not be affected.

The storm is likely to dissipate near central coastal Oman between Duqm and Al Khahil. One can expect very heavy rains in these areas starting October 15. This forecast is not to be taken as final. The system may head to any part of the Oman coast.

Weakened Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa Will Enter Oman Tomorrow Night

Cyclone Ashobaa is weakening. It will enter northeastern Oman in the Al Sharqiyah Region near Masirah Island tomorrow late night. That is the night of June 11, 2015. The towns of Hayy and Dawwah will be most affected.

It will dissipate quickly and move inland into central Oman in the Al Dakhiliyah region bringing it some rains.

Sur will get heavy rains. Muscat will receive only a drizzle.

If the storm moves inland after dissipating as a low very heavy rains are expected in coastal areas around the town of Hayy.

It is also possible that the storm might make landfall in the morning of June 12, 2015.

Since the cyclone is weakening, only winds of 55-65 km/h will be felt in the coastal areas of the country. That is the area which will receive the most rains.

It is also not certain if the cyclone will make landfall into Oman at all. The reliable European computer forecast model ECMWF, predicts a demise mid sea near the coast of the country.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO OMAN. BUT THE JTWC IS BULLISH. IT EXPECTS WINDS OF 100 KM/H ON IMPACT. IT IS DOUBTFUL IF THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER OMAN AT ALL OR NOT.

Arabian Sea Storm Update: Nov 23, 2014: Little Chance Of A Cyclone: Heavy Rains In Sri Lanka Expected

ARABIAN SEA UPDATE: 23 NOVEMBER, 2014

Latest  forecasts say there is no chance of a cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea. The expected low pressure area will move westwards towards Aden weakening rapidly. No rains are expected in Oman in the near future.

But the area of the Indian Ocean around Srilanka is very disturbed with a low pressure churning around. Very heavy rains are expected in Sri Lanka in the coming 10 days. Heavy rains expected in Tamil Nadu from November 27-29, 2014 because of the low pressure.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN SRILANKA AND COASTAL TAMIL NADU IN THE COMING 2 WEEKS

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The storm expected to form in the Arabian Sea off the Indian coast at Kerala on November 27, 2014 will NOT curve northwards towards India or Pakistan but will continue towards the central Oman coast.

Initial forecasts indicated that the cyclone would move towards Oman (Pakistan, Gujarat) but now it seems it will move towards central Oman. The storm will be a 50-60 Kph storm. May mature into a cyclone. Most likely that it will remain a depression.

Very heavy rains are likely in central coastal areas on December 2-3, 2014.

THE BIRTH OF THE STORM. NOV. 28 OFF KERALA COAST

Cyclone Nilofar Will Weaken Before Hitting Kachchh-Sindh: Strong Winds To Lash Oman Tomorrow

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Cyclone Nilofar on Thursday evening. It will be at its strongest then. After that it will rapidly weaken before landfall

Nilofar cyclone may throw up awesome winds of 200-240 Kph tomorrow but by the time it makes landfall at Kachchh-Sindh it will weaken considerably.

Both the GFS forecast and JTWC forecast agree that the storm will weaken before landfall.

The GFS says landfall will be on October 31, 2014.

JTWC says it will be on November 1, 2014.

Both agree that at landfall winds will be about 65-90 Kph.

Nilofar will bring rains to Kachchh (Gujarat) and southern Sindh. Karachi is in for rains and winds of 80 Kph on October 31-November 1.

What about Oman? Cyclone Nilofar is not going to hit Oman. It will receive some rains and strong winds of 80-90 Kph tomorrow.

Cyclone Nilofar Update: Target Dwarka (Gujarat) Friday October 31, 2014

Forecast map: Nilofar about to hit Gujarat. Late night October 30, 2014.

Cyclone Nilofar seems to have changed its mind. Earlier forecasts said it would embrace Karachi.

But latest forecasts show that it is going to curve more than expected. That means it will make landfall at holy Dwarka on Friday, October 31, 2014.

It will than move through the Gulf of Kachchh and affect Mandvi, Mundra,  Kandla before weakening and moving into parts of northwest Gujarat.

Nilofar (At least present trends say) is not going to be as strong as the recent powerful Hudhud. So it it will dissipate even as a rain-bearing system after moving through Gujarat.

Presently Cyclone Nilofar is intensifying and moving towards Oman. But it will change direction and start in a northerly trajectory, thus avoiding landfall into Oman.

It will weaken slightly as it moves north till October 29.

But on Wednesday it will start curving towards Gujarat and strengthen again.

Mercifully by the time it hits the Gujarat coast it will weaken to winds of 100-120 Kph.

In the next 24 hours it will be at its peak with winds howling at a frightening 200+ Kph. The eye will be clearly visible then.

Most of the rains will fall in Kachchh-Saurashtra. Pakistan will get some showers (Karachi) on October 31.

Oman will see strong winds, dark clouds in the coastal areas. And some showers in the next two days.

But it will be Saurashtra-Kachchh which will bear the brunt of Nilofar's fury.

There are 3-4 days before Cyclone Nilofar touches land. Till then Oman, Sindh and Gujarat will be on tenterhooks.

Nilofar is an unpredictable wild lass capable of anything.

In the next 4 days we will keep a keen watch on this beautiful but dangerous creation of Mother Earth.

Cyclone Nilofar And Oman

Forecast Map: Nilofar reaches Oman coast: Late Tuesday

Cyclone Nilofar is 900 kms from Salalah (Oman). How is it going to affect Oman?

In the next two days the storm will move to the southern Oman coast.

Then just when it appears to us that is going to make landfall, Nilofar will move northwards along the Oman coast. It is going to skim along the entire coastline. Then on Friday. The storm will jerk away into a NE direction towards Pakistan coast.

The entire coastal areas of Oman will witness strong winds and heavy rains from Wednesday to Friday (October 28 to 30, 2014).

In other words, though officially Cyclone Nilofar will not hit Oman, it will feel its effects for two days.

GFS Says Nanauk Will Break Up Soon: Oman Cheated Of Expected Rains.

UPDATE JUNE 13, 2014 1000 HRS GMT

The latest GFS supports the JTWC forecast. Nanauk will dissipate mid sea near Oman coast in 24 hrs. So Oman will receive little or no rainfall. The remnants of the cyclone will start drifting in the sea away from Oman. 

So, no rains in Oman..

Water vapor satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1030 GMT, today, June 13, 2014 shows the storm is breaking apart.

Satellite image of Nanauk taken at 0900 hrs GMT Friday, June 13, 2014

Latest JTWC Update Says Nanauk To Hit Oman June 16, 2014

The JTWC in its latest Nanauk Cyclone update (June 12, 3 AM GMT) says the storm will hit Oman a day late. On June 16 morning. It will the island of Masirah.

The BBC in a weather bulletin says that Nanauk is heading to Oman for now but we will keep a close eye on what happens next.

Our feeling exactly. Nanauk is a a very devious unpredictable storm. The ECMWF model says it will head towards Pakistan and break up before contact.

Let us wait and watch. Anything might happen.

GFS Forecast Says Nanauk Will Hit Ash Sharqiyah Province On Sat. June 14, 2014

The GFS forecast is portraying a slightly different path/track for Nanauk. The JTWC says the storm will hit the Al Wusta province of Oman on June 15, Sunday. The GFS says it will make impact at the Ash Sharqiyah province on Saturday.

If this turns out to be true then Muscat will be affected more than expected earlier.

The GFS forecast says Ground Zero will be Ash Sharqiyah province of Oman on June 14, 2014

Latest Track/Path Prediction Map: JTWC June 11, 2014 2100 hrs GMT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE

112100Z (JUNE 11 9 PM GMT) POSITION NEAR 17.6N 65.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM 

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 

02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

The latest bulletin issued by the JTWC (2100 hrs GMT, June 11, 2014) says nothing much has changed. The cyclone is expected to be as strong as forecasted earlier. It will hit the Oman coast south of Khaluf on June 15, 2014, Sunday early morning. Winds then will be between 75 kph and 120 kph. Heavy rains and very high waves will lash the coast. Muscat is away from Ground Zero so it will not bear the brunt of the storm. But expect rains, and heavy winds from Saturday.

Latest satellite image of cyclone Nanauk (Image taken at 0000 hrs GMT, June 12, 2014

Predicted Impact Of Nanauk Cyclone On Oman: Rainfall, Wind, Waves

The severe cyclonic storm Nanauk which is going to hit Oman on Saturday, June 14, 2014 is going to bring torrential rainfall and devastating winds to Oman. We give the forecast of the winds, waves and rainfall expected through XWF prediction maps.

Total accumulated rainfall in Oman till June 16, 2014 owing to cyclone Nanauk. The figures are in inches. It is going to be a deluge. Flooding.

Wind speeds in knots, Purple color is over 50 knots (93 kph). It is expected to be an awesome 150 kph. Destruction is feared.

Waves in meters. 6 to 8 meters high waves will batter coastal Oman. The island towns of Dawwah and Kalban will be worst hit

How the cyclone Will Move: Wednesday to Saturday (Hits Oman)

Here is how we forecast how tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk: Its going to be severe cyclonic storm) will move from today, Wednesday till Saturday (June 14,2014).

Its going to be a big storm. The purple color in the images indicates speed of more than 50 knots (More than 93 kph)

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Saturday, June 14, 2014